outdraws

[Jibs]

This is not a moan, nor a plea for the Bad Beat Police to come find me, but lately i have noticed that in general i seem to suffer more outdraws than i would have thought was typical and i seldom seem to outdraw others. I am not looking for sympathy but rather a critique of why, and more importantly why am i not outdrawing people.

I tend to play 10 and 20 sng's and my roi is healthy at 50% and my ITM is also about 50%. More importantly, i don't know if this is relevant, but my 7th - 10th placings only account for about 13/14%. Basically, this shows that I am not a risk taker early on and therefore am less likely to outdraw someone by staying in to the river. Early on if i have middle pair or top pair weak kicker, i will generally fold. As for draws, well they are just death.

My question, therefore is should i be more aggresive and stay in for marginal hands hoping my open ended straight draw or even gutshot draw comes off and risk coming in the bottom 4 more often but when they do come off have more chips to dominate the table, or do i stick to my tight aggresive game which seems to do well, and when i get rivered yet again by a horrendous outdraw, just smile through gritted teeth and get on with it.

Thanks....

[3rdEye]

An ROI of 50% is excellent. If you rarely outdraw others, it's because you're getting all your chips in the middle with the best of it more often than not.

[Jibs]

Thanks for that - you are probably right. But my question is should i be staying in multiway pots more often in the hope of catching the outdraw on the river to the detriment of some tournamnt chips. Personally, i think long term this is dangerous and these maniacs are the ones that are out eventually whether its 7th or 10th. That type of game is for your 50c/$1 limit when its loose and cheap, which i would never play.

Its just that outdrawing looks like so much fun and i seem to never do it!! The other day i had pocket rockets and my all in gets called by QTspades. Imagine my delight at seeing that. However that soon disappeared as they caught runner runner runner spades on 3rd 4th and 5th street!!! anyway this is not one for the BBP. all i am saying is that do i keep to my safe tight aggresive game or do i risk chips to stay in for the flush draws, the straight draws etc.

As for ROI, the sample is only 50 SNG's so far so i appreciate that a run of 6 out of the money and i am right back down. Those that lament the introduction of ROI i have sympathy for. I spend my whole time paranoid about my ROI!!

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
More importantly, i don't know if this is relevant, but my 7th - 10th placings only account for about 13/14%. Basically, this shows that I am not a risk taker early on and therefore am less likely to outdraw someone by staying in to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a problem. You should be folding quite often early on. I would bet that you are actually playing too many hands in the first couple rounds.

Rules: super tight early. super agressive late (this is when you have fun and outdraw someone)

If you haven't yet, check out this:
AleoMagus' $10 SnG Guide (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=591779&page=&view=&sb =5&o=)

Good luck.. We've all been there. 50% ROI is nothing to sneeze at. or cough near.

-Jman28

[cowpie]

You get outdrawn more often because the people who outdraw you are most likely worse players than you are, or very rarely they think they have the best hand. You should be happy that they stay in with the worse hand because you earn money by exploiting their mistakes.

[The once and future king]

Dont expect your ITM to stay at 50%. It will drop by at leat 2.5-5%.

Not a biggy.

Also if your ROI is 50% dont go changing.

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
If you rarely outdraw others, it's because you're getting all your chips in the middle with the best of it more often than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly

[ QUOTE ]
Its just that outdrawing looks like so much fun and i seem to never do it!!

[/ QUOTE ]

on an adrenaline kick, are you? actually, what is fun is NEVER having to outdraw someone because that means you're making all the right decisions about when to get your money in the middle. THAT is a rush.

[DeuceKicker]

Look on the bright side... I always get outdrawn, rarely outdraw anyone, and my ROI just dipped below 10% (I suck at bubble play)

[poboy]

I use to struggle with this myself, but the answer is quite simple. The reasons you and most others on this forum seem to take so many bad beats is because:

1> We tend to start with the best hand going in, you can't very well lay a bad beat on someone with KK vs K6(you are supposed to win). But if that K6 catches a couple of 6's than you have suffered a bad beat.

2> Being less willing to risk significant chips on a draw means you will outdraw others left often. The fish will gladly go all-in with a gutshot, where you or I would most likely lay it down.

To answer your question about whether you should change your strategy, no. Do you really think the fish are winning that often that it would make it worth it to play like them?
I seriously doubt it.

[RcrdBoy]

Don't worry about being out drawn. Worry about making the right play. If you do that consistently you'll be fine.

Post hands to make sure that you are making the right play.

Also, be honest with yourself about your play and your results. If you have an ROI of 50% you are probably running good or you haven't played enough SNGs for the number to be meaningful. Most agree that an ROI of 50% isn't sustainable.

As for sucking people out, even the best do it. If you haven't cracked someone's AA then you just haven't played enough hands.

Best of luck.

[patrick dicaprio]

talk about outdraws, in my last 13 tourneys, i have gotten all in in 12 as a favorite preflop or on the flop and lost all 12. this included 4 flopped sets that were called all in, two of which lost by runner runner draws. play past it my friend amd dont let it get you down.

Pat