Ever call it down on a friendly flop like this?

[slimpikkens]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button folds, BB folds, Hero ....

When the other two players fold, we're suddenly heads up. I wasn't expecting that. So....I thought I'm either in it for the long run or I'm gonna fold now, assuming the turn and river are as friendly as the flop. I didn't have a solid read on MP3, I recalled him raising occasionally, but nothing fancy. If the board stays friendly, I lose (approximately) half the time to AA-JJ. I win against AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo. After confidently making these HUGE assumptions about MP3 /images/graemlins/crazy.gif, I figured I have to spend 2.5 BB to see the river, and I'll win half the time. Put in 5 BB (2.5 BB twice) and take out 9 BB once.

Hero calls...

Turn: (5.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 9.25 BB, between Hero and MP3.</font>

Sound reasoning? Routine?

[Cerril]

If you were sure about putting him on those hands, you'll win a bit more often than half the time. AK/AQ show up 32 times, AA-JJ only 24. Of course, he'll improve to beat you often enough to maybe counter that. And if you improve you might get another bet out of him. I'm not sure where the odds put you with those reads, but I'd say it's worth calling down.

Question is can you put him on 99-TT or an 8. Chances are he isn't aggro enough that you can expect to see him turn over a winning hand that isn't pockets unless it's AJs. I might even value-raise him on the river (I wouldn't bet out in case he's edgy about his hand and considers betting with two overcards bluffing)

[slimpikkens]

Definitely wasn't putting him on an 8, or even TT or 99.

Also....you're right, I wasn't even considering the frequency of AK/AQ vs. AA-JJ. When you say AK/AQ will show up 32 times, is that out of 2652 (i.e. 52*51)?

[Lumpy]

Don't know if it's the right play or not, but I think I would raise his flop bet. If he 3 bets then you are probably way behind and can fold here rather than calling down later. If he calls I would lead out on the turn and see what happens. If this is poor thinking I would love to hear about it.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't know if it's the right play or not, but I think I would raise his flop bet. If he 3 bets then you are probably way behind and can fold here rather than calling down later. If he calls I would lead out on the turn and see what happens. If this is poor thinking I would love to hear about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I can get down with that.