A bubble aggression hand - timely bluff or one too many?

[durron597]

This table was pretty tight, and I was running over it with controlled aggression. I wasn't playing every pot, but I was playing a lot of them. Opponent in this hand was a good player, best at the table (other than me perhaps /images/graemlins/grin.gif) but a little on the tight side. Results and my thoughts later.

No-limit Texas Hold'em $10+$1 (real money), hand #

View <previous | next> hand for this table

Seat 4: daveb1966 ($1,950 in chips)
Seat 6: durron597 [ 6/images/graemlins/club.gif,K/images/graemlins/club.gif ] ($5,105 in chips)
Seat 8: sarcasm36 ($4,395 in chips)
Seat 9: tk1983 ($3,550 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
durron597 posts blind ($100), sarcasm36 posts blind ($200).

PRE-FLOP
tk1983 folds, daveb1966 folds, durron597 bets $400, sarcasm36 calls $300.

FLOP [board cards 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif,3/images/graemlins/spade.gif,2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ]
durron597 bets $800, sarcasm36 calls $800.

TURN [board cards 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif,3/images/graemlins/spade.gif,2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif,K/images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
durron597 bets $3,805 and is all-in,

[adanthar]

In order to have called PF and on the flop, he'd have to have 1)a 2 or a 3 [I'm thinking A2s], 2)a pocket pair, or 3)a big ace (but a good opponent would've reraised AK) or a KQ-KJ type hand. There's also an outside chance of A4, two spades, etc. but that's pretty low.

Basically, I'm not seeing why your overbet helps you.

[durron597]

Overbet? He can only call as much as is in his stack. 800+800+500+500 = 2600 chips in the pot already. He has almost exactly 3000 chips left in his stack. So my bet was basically pot-sized, I just moved the slider all the way over.

If I make a smaller bet on the turn, we are both committed anyway (if he calls).

[adanthar]

On this board, with this action, that is an overbet.

Personally, I would either check/call or bet something like 1200/fold. You can find out what you need to know for far less than most of your chips.

(Why is this an overbet? Well, what hands you beat do you think will call all in?)

[ChrisV]

In situations like this you are raising mainly to try to steal the blinds. It didn't work and now you don't have any pairs or draws. I would check the flop. Nothing has really changed between preflop, where he called you, and now. Most players will call you with an ace here. Personally I will call you with anything I decided to call preflop with, just to see if I can take the pot off you on the turn.

I would respect his call and check the flop before you get yourself into worse trouble. I don't think you are going to win the pot much taking an 800 chip stab out of position. Your image is LAG and he probably has a decent hand.

[durron597]

You lose a lot of equity if you check fold every time you raise to steal the blinds and miss. From eMarkM:

[ QUOTE ]
Firing second barrel - When you do get called by one of the blinds you often have to lay out a good sized bet even if the flop misses you. That can be scary when you were stealing with 75o and the flop comes A8Q, but often that board is just as scary or more so for your oppoenent. You'll get him to fold hands like medium pocket pairs in these situations. You pick up even nicer pots when you have the guts to fire out again.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ChrisV]

Sure. I fire the second barrel heaps. There are two problems here though: (1) That board doesn't look scary at all to your opponent. That's about as non-scary as boards get. Nothing has changed since preflop. (2) You're out of position. I think I would bet this one on the button, but here your opponent is in perfect shape to call your mid-sized bet and put you in the hurt lock on the turn.

Firing the second barrel is good advice, but if you ALWAYS fire it you are being over aggressive. When you are out of position sometimes you have to defer to the players with position. Note that at the point where you go allin on the turn, you still have virtually NO IDEA what he has. He could still show up with aces, or maybe he has a better king, or maybe J9s or a small pair. Who knows?

By the way, given you have bet the flop, I don't like the allin on the turn. If he is losing he has at most three outs (not counting the possible flush draw). If he has a better hand then you are going to double him up at this point. You need to try and sucker more chips out of him when he's losing. I like check. Betting small (say another 800) is quite good as well. If you had an ace, or a small pair, wouldn't you fire at this pot when the guy checks the turn?

[RobGW]

He is only going to call with a better hand. On the other hand, if you check he might try to steal the pot and you can extract more money with your Kings.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure. I fire the second barrel heaps. There are two problems here though: (1) That board doesn't look scary at all to your opponent. That's about as non-scary as boards get. Nothing has changed since preflop. (2) You're out of position. I think I would bet this one on the button, but here your opponent is in perfect shape to call your mid-sized bet and put you in the hurt lock on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I was relying on Bubble time and the fact that I don't always bet the flop - my image is LAG but not maniacal by any means. I have yet to show down a worse hand than TPTK or BB 2 pair special. That's what made me decide to bet at this flop. I also felt that I would get aces to fold and only PPs to call.

[ QUOTE ]
If you had an ace, or a small pair, wouldn't you fire at this pot when the guy checks the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had an ace, there's a good chance I would have either reraised preflop with position or folded on the flop. Given that I didn't, I probably still call with a pair on the turn, figuring that the King likely didn't help him.

[adanthar]

You think 88-44 calls your all in bet given what you've done so far in this hand when a big zone overcard hits the board? Do you think a naked ace calls? (Well, maybe they do at the 10s. It's been a while. But even a little higher up, no, they don't.)

Conversely, how many hands that you are behind will fold here?

[ChrisV]

It's amazing the kind of hands people will play passively sometimes. There is seriously no hand he could have here other than total junk which would surprise me. Even AK or a mid pair wouldn't shock me too much.

If I had to nominate likely hands for his play up until the turn, my top candidates would be a bad ace (including A2, but also A4-A8ish), a better king (K8-KJish), or a slowplayed AA.

So what happened?

[CrisBrown]

Hi durron,

You tried a semi-bluff raise pre-flop, and a tight player called. You tried another semi-bluff on the flop, and he called again. The general principle vs. tight players is to bluff and semi-bluff more (taking advantage of greater steal equity), but bet for value less. The reason is that a tight player is more likely to be on a real hand, so your marginal hands have less value.

K6 is a very marginal hand on this flop. Yes, you've made Kings up, but your kicker is awful, and there's a double-draw (wheel straight and spade flush) on board. If he has both the wheel and spade draws (e.g.: As5s), he has 15 outs and will be correct to call your all-in.

In short, you have a hand that: (1) isn't close to the nut hand; (2) is unlikely to improve to a nut hand; (3) against a known tight player who called pot-sized bets pre-flop and at the flop.

In short, what you have is a bluff-catcher: a hand that can beat many of the hands that might bet into it, but is not likely to beat any the hands that would call if you bet. (See the section "Heads-Up at the End" in Sklansky's The Theory of Poker.) I would check-call here, trying to induce and catch a bluff, rather than pushing.

Cris

[hhboy77]

i don't have any issue with your preflop or flop play, but i think the play on the turn is seriously flawed.

you have just made a hand that that can beat many of the hands your opponent figures to hold. however, the one hand that will call you (a deuce) has you in serious trouble. my inclination would be to check call if you believe your hand is good. however, if he puts in a big bet, you have to figure that there is a definite chance you're beat.

1) he's tight
2) you're on the bubble
3) you are the one stack that can bust him

[durron597]

So the consensus is to check-call the turn. Do I bet out again on the river? What if he moves in himself on the turn?

TURN [board cards 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif,3/images/graemlins/spade.gif,2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif,K/images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
durron597 bets $3,805 and is all-in, sarcasm36 calls $3,095 and is all-in.

RIVER [board cards 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif,3/images/graemlins/spade.gif,2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif,K/images/graemlins/spade.gif,4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ]


SHOWDOWN
durron597 shows [ 6/images/graemlins/club.gif,K/images/graemlins/club.gif ]
sarcasm36 shows [ A/images/graemlins/spade.gif,A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ]
durron597 wins $710, sarcasm36 wins $8,790.


Basically my thought process was because of my aggressive style, there would be no way he would put me on a King and pay me off with as low as 99. I put him on exactly a pocket pair, AA-99, with the case KK being very unlikely (obviously).

[ChrisV]

Like I said, a slowplayed AA is one of the candidates for his hand here. I would have checked the flop. If he bet the flop, I would fold. If he checked the flop, I would bet the turn and fold to a raise.

You shouldn't put him on 99-QQ here as he would have raised at some point - preflop or on flop. The most likely pocket pair is a slowplayed AA.

Bottom line, he has position and you have to respect his preflop call.