"Fit or fold"?

[topspin]

Missed my set. Should I check-fold?

Paradise Poker 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (3 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Given the utter lack of aggression on the flop, I decide to take a stab at the pot, figuring to fold to a raise. Once no one raises I can't really put anyone on a flush (or a big overpair, since they'd have raised on the flop).

River: (7 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, SB calls.

Once another 10 hits, I figure the only thing I really need to worry about is a 10; all other cards are undercards, so I bet out again. Too LAG?

Final Pot: 11 BB

[Firefly]

I would have bet the flop.... The turn and river are fine in my opinion. I would fold to a re-raise, but why not take a stab at it like you said?

[flexus]

I would bet the flop, turn and river.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the flop, turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from a 7 coming, how do you not bet that flop?

[wabe]

Except for not betting the flop, you played this well.

[dabluebery]

Agree. Bet Flop.

[radek2166]

bet the flop watch a few fold.

[topspin]

I have a good chance of holding the best hand on the flop, but I don't think a bet protects my hand here since overcards and flush draws are getting odds to call. I'm vulnerable to a lot of turn cards and don't have any good redraws, hence waiting to see the turn.

With the turn bet, I figured I could comfortably fold if anyone raised. When no one did, I figured on betting the river for value (kinda wondered after if that was too LAG...).

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB has 5s 5c (two pair, tens and fives).
Hero has 7s 7h (two pair, tens and sevens).
UTG has As Td (three of a kind, tens).
UTG+2 has 5d 4d (two pair, tens and fours).
Outcome: UTG wins 11 BB. </font>

[davelin]

Be happy UTG decided not to raise the river.

[Jimbobobb]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a good chance of holding the best hand on the flop, but I don't think a bet protects my hand here since overcards and flush draws are getting odds to call. I'm vulnerable to a lot of turn cards and don't have any good redraws, hence waiting to see the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

So you're going to give all those draws and overcards a card for free when they might fold, and you *most likely* have the best hand? Don't do that. This idea of protecting hands has gone a tad too far I think. Since there is no way to 'protect' your hand here, you simply bet, because you have the best of it. Giving a hand like T2 who probably wouldn't call your flop bet a free turn like that is simply awful.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're going to give all those draws and overcards a card for free when they might fold, and you *most likely* have the best hand? Don't do that. This idea of protecting hands has gone a tad too far I think. Since there is no way to 'protect' your hand here, you simply bet, because you have the best of it. Giving a hand like T2 who probably wouldn't call your flop bet a free turn like that is simply awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a flop bet is as great as you suggest. I ran a quick sim and against 6 random hands, on the flop I'm only 17.4% to win by the river. Given that 1/6 = 16.7%, I'm not exactly pushing a big pot equity edge here by raising.

The more debatable point was whether check-folding the turn is better given the flush card hit, or if I should bluff at the pot first.

[Jimbobobb]

6 random hands won't call your flop bet. If they do, great - your sim show's that it's a +EV play. You also started betting out on the turn when an overcard and a draw completing card came. So you don't know where you stand still, and decided to start betting when it's more likely that you are beaten. You're not willing to bet with the best of it, but would rather 'bluff at the pot' - I don't understand this thinking.

[WillMagic]

Uh, you did flop an overpair here. That's as good as it gets when you don't flop a set.

I'd bet the flop here.

I like your turn and river bets.

Will