NFL heads up

[TheNatural1]

I was reading a Q and A session with the head linesmaker for sportsbook.com and he says that Detriot is the play this weekend. He went as far as to say he would make his largerest wager of the season on them. Take it for what it's worth. I think I will buy them to 7 and take it.

[craig r]

Are you going to buy from 5.5 to 7? that is -140..seems like a lot. why don't you find a team to tease them with (you will get the 7 and 10)?

craig

[TheNatural1]

Sorry, I was unclear on my post. I am assuming the eagles will keep getting bet but because the public loves them. I would buy to 7 from 6 but am hoping it gets to 6.5.

FYI When asked about whether or not buying points was worth it he replied:

BUY, BUY, BUY...ALWAYS BUY. Buy to any flat number, and off the numbers, 3,4, and 7. It used to be that the numbers 2 and 5 were dead in the NFL but now they are not dead with the 2 point conversion, so you must buy to those numbers as well if you have a 1.5/2.5 or 4.5/5.5. In the NFL laying extra juice makes sense if it gets you the best number.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
BUY, BUY, BUY...ALWAYS BUY. Buy to any flat number, and off the numbers, 3,4, and 7. It used to be that the numbers 2 and 5 were dead in the NFL but now they are not dead with the 2 point conversion, so you must buy to those numbers as well if you have a 1.5/2.5 or 4.5/5.5. In the NFL laying extra juice makes sense if it gets you the best number.


[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have data to support that buying from 1.5 to 2.5 or 4.5 to 5.5 is worth the extra 20 cents? I am not saying that your above statement is not true, but it seems like a lot. If on average every extra point one gets in their favor gets them an extra 2% chance to win (i am not talking about the 3 and 7), then how does laying an extra 20 cents make this a profitable play?

craig

[TheNatural1]

I don't have the math to support it, I was just parroting what he said for everyone. But he wasn't saying buy from 1.5 to 2.5 he was saying if you are getting 1.5 buy it up to 2, a flat number. If you are laying 2.5 buy it down to 2.

[craig r]

this may very well be true, but i wouldn't feel comfortable doing this without the data. one would have to win an extra 2.16% of their bets if they lay -120. I don't see how going from 1.5 to 2 would do this or 4.5 to 5. In fact, i retract my first sentence, i don't think this is true.

i am not trying to give you a hard time Natural (i am not like that). i just don't want to see a lot of people buying half points blindly.

craig