Flop Odds for the experts

Question #1:


When deciding to implement implied odds, should I be drawing to the

nuts or near nuts? And just calculate my immediate odds for other

decisions? (I want to ignore effective odds...more on this later)


Question #2:


I realize odds can be extremely complicated, but just wanted some

feedback if there is a method to my madness pertaining to

my approach of odds on the flop….


Two examples in which you flop bottom pair on the flop:


45s in BB…Flop K84 rainbow…No Backdoor flush.


5 outer…Approx 8.5 to 1 immediate odds (10.5 %)…However


I would estimate that even if I hit, there is about a 20%


chance I will get rivered. Therefore I will only win around


8.5%..Which translates to about 11.5 to 1 odds I would need.


Next: 45 spades in BB Flop K84 with 2 clubs..

Now I probably only have 4 outs, but think if I hit perfect I’ll get

rivered approx. 45-50% of the time. Therefore I figure I’ll win

about 4.5 % of the time, in which I would need a whopping 23.5 to

1 to continue.


Are my estimations of getting rivered in the ballpark? What about

my overall calculations…Did I forget to take into consideration that

I will sometimes hit the turn card but get rivered, and am in a sense

putting in more money than my calculations show , which may even

raise the odds more?


Question #3:


Is it really necessary to figure your effective odds on the flop?

Can’t I just compute my odds on a round by round basis similar

to the above?

When deciding to implement implied odds, should I be drawing to the nuts or near nuts?


Not necessarily, as long as you can calculate your chance of winning the pot.




45s in BB…Flop K84 rainbow…No Backdoor flush.

5 outer…Approx 8.5 to 1 immediate odds (10.5 %)…However I would estimate that even if I hit, there is about a 20% chance I will get rivered. Therefore I will only win around 8.5%. Which translates to about 11.5 to 1 odds I would need.


Where does 20% come from? How many players are seeing the flop? How many the turn? The river? What sort of game is it? For example, if you bet your hand strongly, do you have a chance of winning the pot by betting others off their hands? Or is it a no-fold'em type game?


You're right about calculating odds being complicated. It's obviously too involved to try to do at the table. So here's a couple of practical suggestions.


When you're away from the table, map out different types of situations, like this one you posted. Go through methodically round by round with whatever appropriate assumptions would be, and track the results. Then when you run into a similar situation at the poker table, you'll have an idea of what to do.


At the table you could try to narrow it down to two things. 1) How big you think the pot will be at show down. 2) What the chances are of your winning the hand are.

"Where does 20% come from?"


Just an estimate of them hitting their 2nd pair,backdoor draws or perhaps me getting counterfeited.


And the above situation would involve multiple

opponents with a preflop raise since thats the only way I would have near enough pot odds to call.


I do plan on doing this away from the table, but need some more feedback first.

Question #1 - not necessarily the nuts, but a strong draw like a straight or flush or full house.


Question #2 - a lot of times I just figure my implied odds and my chance of getting rivered balance out to ease my calculations.


Question #3 - I prefer round by round for deciding if I want to call.

The assumptions you make will change that percentage quite a bit. That is, how many are seeing the flop? The turn? The river? What sort of hands do they play? How do they react to different betting patterns? (will they call no matter what, or can you get them out by check-raising and other strength-showing tactics)


Make some assumptions you think are reasonable and work out what happens. You could post your assumptions and conclusions and get feedback that way.


Another possibility, if you have TTH you could run some simulations. If you don't, you could post a situation you're interested in and there's a good chance someone will run it for you.

Question #2 - a lot of times I just figure my implied odds and my chance of getting rivered balance out to ease my calculations.


You meant the regular odds here, not implied odds, right? That is, you're assuming being rivered will balance out the extra bets implied odds would take into account, so you don't calculate the implied odds.