Implied Odds

[Mojo, The Programmer]

I'm fairly new to poker.

I'd like to think I'm not a moron, but unfortunately, poker has proven otherwise more times than I'd like to admit. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I've heard the term Implied Odds... and I'd really like to know a little more about how they work in any particular hand.

Can anyone give me a little help here?

[Seether]

Implied odds are essentially bets that you feel you will get if you were to make your hand which would make up for making an incorrect call based on pot odds alone

[LDWills]

I may be wrong, if so someone please correct me.
At the turn the pot is $200, you are planning to bet $50, and you are sure at least one other person will call. If this happens, the pot would have an implied value of $250 instead of $200. This would give you implied pot odds of 5to1. In order to bet, your odds of making your hand should be no less than 4to1. If your bet was $100 instead of $50 the implied odds would go to 6to1.

[Dominic]

here's an example:


You're playing a 10-20 game, you hold 10/9s and you see the flop with 3 others...so there is $40 in the pot (more if the blinds folded). The flop comes 2-8-J with one spade. Okay. One guy bets, another calls, the third folds and now it's up to you: you've got an open-ended straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. There's now $60 in the pot, so you do your math and you find that you are approx. 6-1 to make your straight on the turn - the pot odds are there - barely - so you call $10 for the chance to win $60.

So far so good. On the turn, a 3 of clubs hits. One guy bets, the other calls and now it's up to you again: There's now $110 in the pot. For you to call $20, you have to have 6-1 on your money, but you don't now, do you?

6x20=120

You have to call $20 to try and win the $110 that's in the pot right now, so considering pot odds, you should fold, right?

But wait! If you DO call and make your hand on the river, you can make an educated guess that one or both of the other players will either bet and/or call your raise when you make your straight. Those extra "future" bets - let's say another $40 which vaults the size of the pot OVER the 6-1 ratio you would need to make a call - are the IMPLIED ODDS you are getting if you were to call the turn.

Simply put, implided odds are the bets you expect to get AFTER you bet or call.

They're obviously not precise, so you can be wrong, so it does take some practice and poker know-how to correctly guage these implied odds.

Hope this wasn't too confusing for you!

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[knightunner]

Do implied odds also include bets in future rounds? If the pot is $200 after the flop, wouldn't you have to account for betting all the way to the river?

knight

edit:
Sorry, I should have read Dom's post before I wrote this!

[Dominic]

that's okay....yes, implied odds are mostly taking into account bets you will win on future rounds, as well as anyone left to act after you on the current round.

[Macedon]

You are 5:1 to hit your straight on the turn, not 6:1.
(Not trying to be a pr1ck, but it is important to get the odds right)

[Mojo, The Programmer]

Dom,

Thanks for your post here.

So essentially, 'implied odds' is an educated guess, on whether or not your opponenents will bet into you / call a later bet if you make your hand.

How often should you take this into account when you are playing? It kinda sounds like something that you'd need to "get a feel" for (as opposed to Pot Odds, which is a fairly straightforward concept.), as you have been sitting at a table for a while (so you know whether your straight hitting will recieve any bettors/callers).

Thanks again Dom!

[Louie Landale]

Yes, you can cheat on current pot odds so long as you are drawing to near the nuts.

I'm not sure this agrees with Sklansky's definition, but in addition to the future bets you can win if you hit you need to take into account your "negative implied odds": future bets you may LOSE: the classic case is drawing to a straight when someone else already has a flush, I hate it when that happens.

So basicially, "Implied odds" is about expected future action.

- Louie

[sfbruin]

How do you figure 5:1?

[Dominic]

In my experience, it just ain't worth it to draw to a straight with a flush on board, or even drawing to a flush with a paired board...depends on the feel you get for the table...

Of course, there are also times when you're drawing to the flush that isn't the nuts, you hit it, and someone else DOES have the nut flush...but I think you can get a feel for whether that's a possibility during the course of the hand...

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
You are 5:1 to hit your straight on the turn, not 6:1.
(Not trying to be a pr1ck, but it is important to get the odds right)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, it is important. If you have an open-ended straight draw, you have 8 outs, right?

There are 47 cards to come.

47/8 = 5.875; which, I'm sure we can all agree, is closer to 6 than it is to 5.

so, your pot odds are 6-1.

If you're including his backdoor flush draw, okay...I might call a pot with only 5-1 pot odds here because I can count a backdoor flush draw as 2 outs, dropping my pot odds to 4.7...or (rounding up) to 5.

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
Dom,

Thanks for your post here.

So essentially, 'implied odds' is an educated guess, on whether or not your opponenents will bet into you / call a later bet if you make your hand.

How often should you take this into account when you are playing? It kinda sounds like something that you'd need to "get a feel" for (as opposed to Pot Odds, which is a fairly straightforward concept.), as you have been sitting at a table for a while (so you know whether your straight hitting will recieve any bettors/callers).

Thanks again Dom!

[/ QUOTE ]

You're welcome! And yes, it is something that you have to "get a feel" for...you have to know the texture of your table....are they all a bunch of calling stations? Loose Aggressive? Tight Passive? When you're calulating your implied odds, you have to do it HONESTLY. If the only way you're gonna call a turn bet is if, when you make your hand on the river, all three other players call your bet/raise, THEN you have the proper odds to call the turn...well, you're probably lying to yourself!

And be careful when figuring implied odds with flush draws. Most of the time, flush draws are easy to see and won't get any action if the third flush card hits on the turn or river...so a lot of times, you can't count on implied odds when on a flush draw.

Here's something else to consider...in my example I gave you, I had you flopping an open-ended straight draw with a back door flush draw...does the fact I have three spades on the flop affect my pot odds at all?

Yes! We have determined that you need 6-1 pot odds to call a bet on the flop, right? But say you count up the bets and it only comes to 5-1. Can you fudge it just this once and play anyway (I know you want to!), even though you're not supossed to?

Of course not, that's a losing play in the long run...except...

You've also got that pesky runner/runner flush draw to consider...you can always count a backdoor flush draw as two outs (if you do the math, you'll see why). So this raises our number of outs to 10 outs, not just 8...47/10 = 4.7...now we have the pot odds to call the flop with this hand with only 5-1 pot odds!

But be careful...this only works once...if the turn doesn't give you your straight or flush, you're pretty much done with this hand, because now the bet is double what it was on the flop and you will, in all liklihood, NOT have the pot odds to call with your straight draw on the turn - even though I know you want to!

However, say you DO hit a spade on the turn...how does this change things now?

Now you have 8 outs with the straight draw...and 9 outs with your new and improved flush draw, for a total of 15 outs...but since two of your straight draw outs would naturally be included in your flush draw outs, let's drop it down to 13 total outs.

Now you're talking. with 13 outs, you have 3.5-1 pot odds for the river (46/13 = 3.5) and you'll more than likely have those odds to call a bet on the turn now.

So...becuase you were able to drop your pot odds down from 6-1 to 5-1 on the flop, you were able to call and pick up even more outs on the turn. In fact, there are a few times here where now you may even be the favorite to win the hand even if you still don't have the winning hand yet.

Because of this, if there's still 3 or 4 players in the hand, it's probably a good idea to RAISE the turn at this point as a value bet...you proably won't get any action on the river if your flush hits, so get those bets in the pot on the turn. You'll still have the pot odds to do so.

Just be careful if there's more than 3 people still in the pot...there's a good chance someone might be drawing to a better flush than yours...

Isn't poker fun?

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[holdemfan]

You have 2 pocket cards, flop has 3. There are 52 in deck minus the five you see is 47. 8 will give you your straight and 39 will not. 39/8 or 39 divided by 8 is 4.88/1.

[holdemfan]

10 outs is 37/10 or 3.7/1

[Macedon]

Thank you Holdemfan.
People often make the mistake of dividing their outs by the amount of cards left unseen and not (correctly) by the amount of cards that can't help them.

You divide 8 outs by 39 useless cards and you get 4.8.
Round it off and you are a 5:1 dog.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience, it just ain't worth it to draw to a straight with a flush on board, or even drawing to a flush with a paired board...depends on the feel you get for the table...

Of course, there are also times when you're drawing to the flush that isn't the nuts, you hit it, and someone else DOES have the nut flush...but I think you can get a feel for whether that's a possibility during the course of the hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

You desperately need SSH.

[Maniac420]

I've been counting backdoor flushes as 1.5 outs, but everyone here agrees on 2. I'm curious about the math, anyone have an explanation of the difference?

[Saint_D]

SSH says 1.5. In play I tend to use 1.0, which may be a little weak of me.

[Dominic]

I've read it, Jeff...and I live by it...but I stand by my comment that chasing a straight when there are already three flush cards on the board is a losing proposition in the long run.

[Dominic]

Of course, you're right, Macedon...my mistake....thank you for pointing it out! I'd hate to inadvertantly give out wrong information...and thanks for pointing it out in an agreeable manner instead of the 'ol "hey, moron, you're wrong" way.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
10 outs is 37/10 or 3.7/1

[/ QUOTE ]

he's right, I'm wrong! Sorry about that...my explanation of implied odds is correct but I had the odds a little off...

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Louie Landale]

Yup, straight DRAWS are piglettes when there are 3 to a flush on board. But contrary to "C-level" poker advice from folks who play 3/6 "for a living", drawing to a straight when there are 2 is a reasonable play. Drawing to a flush when the board is paired is generally OK, but the rank of the pair matters as does the number and quality of the betters and callers.

There are some weak-tight small pot game exceptions, but generally the pots are big enough to warrent calling with these marginally favorable draws.

As for flush under flush ... I've alwayes "felt" that was an unreasonable fear but suspect I really should do some analysis. As for FOLDING a small flush DRAW because you rightfully believe someone must have a bigger draw: that's come up TWICE for me in the last 2000 hours of playing. Twice I was right; once I called anyway and paid off the bigger flush. Yes, there were other times where I was drawing dead but had no particular reason to know it.

- Louie