Odds to call a gut shot str8 draw.

[crockett]

Another thread sparked me to realize that I don't have a firm concept of when and when not to call when I have a gut shot str8 draw.

I realize that 10.5:1 are the pure odds but what is the general rule(s) of thumb most people use when deciding on wether or not to call a gut shot str8 draw.

Also, I know, I know...please post specific hand examples but if you do take the time to reply with this message could you also please take the time to give me some general advice of when or when not to call.

Examples...would you ever call a gut shot to the nuts getting 5:1? 6:1? 7:1? Are you less likely to call them when facing 2 bets vs. 1 bet but still getting the same odds? For example you wouldn't call when getting 18:2 but would call when getting 9:1? Or vice versus.

Thanks in advance, this is definately a decision I'm not making with clear intelligent reasoning and I would like to firm that up some.

[phillydilly]

In Winning Low Limit Hold'Em by Lee Jones, he says the odds have to be 7:1. I believe he uses implied odds to justify it, but i dont remember off hand.

[Bill Smith]

There's a fair amount of information on this in SSH, and you are correct that your question is too broad to answer in full. However, here is how I go about it:

1. What odds am I getting on the pot right now?
2. How many people are yet to act, and what are the chances they will raise and mess up my odds?
3. Does making my straight give me the best possible hand?
4. Do I have overcards that might also qualify as outs?
5. Given 3 and 4, how many outs do I have?
6. Given 1 and 2, do my outs give me enough odds to call?

I'll give you 2 examples:

Example 1

You hold K /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, flop is T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I generally count overcards as 2-3 outs, and you have 4 outs to the nuts. I'm calling with 7:1 odds, maybe even 6:1 given the potential implied odds, and I might even raise to get a free card and try to force others with overcards out.

Example 2

You hold 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, flop is Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

You have no overcards, no backdoor flush opportunity, and an 8 may not be a winner because JT is a fairly popular hand that will not be folding this flop. I would count this as 3.5 outs, and would need at least 13:1 to consider calling.

[Tosh]

It honestly varies massively on:

* how strong your gutshot draw is, 2 card draws to the nuts are far far stronger. e.g. 72 on a board of 9TJ is basically worthless but QJ on a board of T82 is a hand I'd often call with far less than the pure odds.

* other outs always change the required price. E.g. the above example the QJ has overcard out value as well.

* relative position. Are you closing the action? If not you need a bigger price, if you are you can take on more loose calls.

* when you are paying multiple bets your implied odds are lower, i.e. it is harder to make up for the lack of odds later when its costing you too much.

[crockett]

Thank you all for the replies.

I have been doing it exactly as everyone replied for the most part.

One thing I was not considering though is that your implied odds go down when calling 2 cold vs. 1 cold even though the pot is laying you the same odds. I remember reading this but I had forgotten and need to keep it in mind.

Thanks again.

[Lost Wages]

The basic idea is that you need to make-up your "missing" odds on later streets. So, you need an "implied pot" greater than 10.8 times the current bet that you have to call (10.8 on the flop, 10.5 is for the turn. Not that such accuracy is necessary). The implied pot is the current pot at the time of your decision whether or not to call, plus future bets that you will collect if you make your hand (don't count the bets that you will put in on this street or future streets).

You can calculate what odds you need on the flop by estimating how many future bets you will collect. For example:
<ul type="square"> Assume that your hand will win 100% of the time if you make your straight. Assume that you will fold the turn if you do not make a straight. Assume that you will collect 2BB on the turn and 1BB on the river if you make your straight. Assume that you will only have to pay 1SB to see the turn. [/list]
Let X = the flop pot in SB at the time of your decision.
Then, EV = (4/47)(X+6) + (43/47)(-1)
Setting EV = 0 and solving for X yields 4.75SB. So if all of the assumptions hold true, then it would be +EV anytime the pot was &gt;4.75SB. Of course, those assumptions won't hold true but you can see where we are headed. You need better odds if:
<ul type="square"> The board is paired or there is a flush draw (Of course, even on an unpaired rainbow flop you won't win 100% of the time) You are not closing the action so you may have to pay more than 1 bet to see the turn Your made hand might not get payed off. [/list]
You can see the effect of having to call 2 cold (or if you are not closing the action and you have to call a raise) by changing the (-1) to a (-2) in the EV equation. Then the flop must be 15.5SB (15.5:2 or 7.75:1) so yes, all other factors being equal, you need better odds to call 2 cold than you do to call 1 because you will have a harder time making-up the missing odds on later streets.

As a general rule, if conditions are favorable, then you can call for a gutshot on the flop getting about 8:1. On the turn, you need much closer to your true odds since you only have the river to make-up your missing odds.

Lost Wages