Villain on a flush draw

[NegativeEV]

Party $50+5, 7 players left, blinds 25/50

Hero SB T900
Villain BB T1100
Button T1300

Folded to Button who calls. Hero completes from SB with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Villain BB checks.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hero checks, Villain bets T50, button folds.

Hero is 80% confident that Villain is on a flush draw (just trust him, he's got a good read here). Should Hero:

1.) Check-raise this flop to charge Villian to draw.
2.) Call the flop and bet the turn if a non /images/graemlins/club.gif falls.
3.) Other....

I vote call the flop and bet the turn if a non /images/graemlins/club.gif falls. In a ring game, I think check-raising the flop to charge the draw is the proper move, however in a tourney setting, I feel that waiting for the turn is a better move if I'm confident that my flop CR will be called. I'd rather see the draw miss on the turn and charge for the last card when I feel I have increased folding equity AND better odds that the draw will miss (i.e. more likely to miss with one card coming rather than two). Thoughts?

[RobGW]

3) Check raise a pot size bet on the flop, and then if a non-flush card hits, bet as much as you think he will call. Force him to make two bad calls.

[NegativeEV]

This seems like the best CEV move, but I'm wondering if it is the best $EV play in a shallow stack SnG tourney. The more I think about this, the more I think you have the right idea. If I make a pot sized bet I still have a decent chip stack left if I'm forced to lay down on the turn if the /images/graemlins/club.gif falls.

The only downside I see is that I think Villain is MUCH more likely to call my bet on the turn after calling the bet on the flop. That means by betting the flop, I'm certain that Villian will see two cards to get to his flush.

I guess your reply is asserting that taking a 2:1 favorite situation here is +CEV over the long-run. My original thought is that I'd like to keep the pot small so that I am able to take a 4:1 favorite situation that also has folding equity.

Over the long-run, I'm probably better betting the pot and if the flush misses I should be happy with a 4:1 favorite situation on the turn even if I'm sure that he'll call and I have zero folding equity. A lot of rambling by me here, but thinking this through is helping me get to what I think is the "right" answer (bet pot and value bet turn).

[rybones]

If you are fairly sure he will call, then I would definately go all in!!! you may lose, but if you don't you have a better shot at 1st. If you do lose, you still made the money. Alternatively, he may fold and you have saved yourself the stressfull wait. However, I must say I sorta like RobGW's take on the hand as well. The only move I do not like is letting him have the draw to his flush for free!!! Make him pay to get his card. He may get it, but checking here does not help you trap him or get you a better shot at his money. imo you need to raise before the turn!!

Ryan

[willie]

i've been getting hammered by tryin to blow off draws on the flop

i think i'm going to add a play of basically betting the pot on the flop and moving in on blanked turns.

people see 2 cards to come and just think they're invinvible on draws, i pray that with one card they stop making their horrible draw calls /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[RobGW]

I would think as a 4:1 favorite, wouldn't you want him to call if you only give him 2:1 pot odds? Think of it this way; if you don't bet the flop and give him a free card, and then bet out a large amount on the turn so he folds, have you extracted any money from him? With all the fish out there who will chase their draws, I tend to make them pay as much as they are willing to. Sometimes they suck out on me, but as a 4:1 favorite, I am willing to take that chance.