On substance, my best post ever (crosspost from extant thread)

[JimmyV]

"JimmyV's best post ever" -- That isn't saying much, but I'm keen for feedback because I think the board has helped me so much in being ready to make plays like the one I outline below: is there disagreement with my analysis out there?

[ QUOTE ]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: surfdoc is UTG with A /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
surfdoc raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 6 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.66 SB) 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, surfdoc bets, UTG+2 raises, BB folds, surfdoc 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, surfdoc calls.

Turn: (7.33 BB) A /images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
surfdoc bets, UTG+2 raises, surfdoc calls.

River: (11.33 BB) J /images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
surfdoc checks, UTG+2 bets, surfdoc raises, UTG+2 3-bets, surfdoc caps, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 19.33 BB

Comments?


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Obviously this is a dream scenario. Everyone's saying to keep firing but I disagree.

Here's another line that I think is much better across the board:

Since you know utg+2 doesn't have the nuts, why not checkraise the turn? (Seems absurd, I know, to get tricky with this holding -- but let me explain. I think in fact the plan is airtight.)

It's very hard for opponent to threebet in that scenario.
And if YOU threebet the turn you will quickly face a cap if opponent has a flush, and then you've put in extra money drawing to 14 outs or whatever. Whereas if opponent threebets you can just call.

Worst-case scenario is of course that opponent capped the flop for the free card, and then has the discipline to take it on the turn. But if opponent capped for a free card he's drawing totally dead to his naked K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and you can get extra bets out of him on the river. If he's drawing he'll just call the turn and fold the river if you keep firing, but if you change it up here and go for the checkraise you'll get more out of him on one or both of those two streets, and I think DEFINITELY more overall.

This seems like an overly fancy play but break it down:

On the turn...
1) If opponent has a flush you're drawing and would rather put in three bets (opponent three-bets, you call) than four (you three-bet, opponent caps).
{Black-diamond play: If you're feeling REALLY sharp, you can then checkfold the turn unimproved if he does three-bet (55 won't even three-bet -- would you? -- because it must fear A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or similar and expect to get paid like crazy if the river pairs the board). You can't do that if it goes bet-raise-raise-raise because only the checkraise will get the opponent's attention and force him to consider that you have the nuts on the turn.}

2) If opponent doesn't have a flush you're WAY ahead and would rather put in two bets (checkraise) than one (bet-call).

3) If opponent is drawing to a flush...
...and he misses, he won't pay you off on the river but might bluff-raise or look you up if you show weakness by checking the turn.
...and he hits, he will raise the river and you can three-bet there.

4) If opponent has a decent one-pair hand but no diamond draw he might fold on the turn to the A scare-card, which would be too bad. But if the turn is checked he'll look you up on the river maybe.

Checkraise the turn, call a 3-bet, and then get psyched for the river!

Pretty confident about this analysis. Comments?

JimmyV

[Nightwish]

This strategy, as well as the idea that you can fold the river unimproved when the opponent 3-bets, is commonly known as a catastrophic error.

[JimmyV]

Yeah, I'm not wedded to the idea of folding the river. But I would call expecting to lose 92% of the time to a turn three-bettor (since the pot is then 14 BB, you're right, I have to call).

Do you have any substantive basis for your claim about the turn? Or are you just in a bad mood?

JimmyV

[JimmyV]

Nightwish,

I think you're forgetting the distinct possibility that opponent will only call your turn bet rather than raising it. The decision to three-bet once you've been raised is easy; but the decision to bet or checkraise is more complex than that.

From the ex-ante position you don't know that opponent has a hand worth raising with. If he doesn't, the check-raise gets you two bets (or a ton on the river if he checks behind and makes his draw) rather than one. And if he does have the flush you get to put in three bets rather than four while drawing.

It's like a prisoner's dilemma. If the outcome of one strategy is better for most or all of the opponent's actual holdings, it must be a better strategy.

Betting and raising gets you

A -5 when opponent has the flush and the river bricks
B 0 when opponent has some second pair with no diamond
C 1 when opponent has flush draw and the river bricks
D 4 when opponent makes his flush draw (he won't raise the turn in this case, obviously)
E 7 when opponent has the underset and the river pairs the board

Check-raising gets you

A -4 when opponent has the flush and the river bricks (or -3 if you have the stones & the read to fold the river)
B 1 when opponent has second pair with no diamond
C 1 when opponent has flush draw and the river bricks, but he calls you down (or, possibly, bluff-raises) because of the turn check
D 3 when opponent has the flush draw and the discipline to take the free card, and gets there
Dii 5 when opponent has the flush draw but bets anyway (hyperaggression, hoping to push you off black KK or similar after the A hits; Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA, maybe K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A ), and 'gets there' after the checkraise
E 6 when opponent has underset and the river pairs the board


Only in the least likely case, case E, is betting clearly more profitable than checkraising the turn.

I don't see a refutation for this breakdown, as counterintuitive as the play is! Others?

JimmyV

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
"JimmyV's best post ever"

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[ QUOTE ]


Preflop: surfdoc is UTG with A /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Flop: (6.66 SB) 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)

Turn: (7.33 BB) A /images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Black-diamond play: If you're feeling REALLY sharp, you can then checkfold the turn unimproved if he does three-bet

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[surfdoc]

Wow. Cool. Now there is a second thread to highlight my poor play. Whooohooo.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow. Cool. Now there is a second thread to highlight my poor play. Whooohooo.

[/ QUOTE ]

a play is a poor play only if it can eventually make you poor /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[JimmyV]

Oh, NOW I see your beef, El Diablo. Obviously I meant "checkfold the river," not the turn. But I've abandoned that position.


Quote:
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Black-diamond play: If you're feeling REALLY sharp, you can then checkfold the turn unimproved if he does three-bet


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