Futures betting for World Series champ

[billyjex]

Hey all..

Just cruising some of the futures bets at Bodog for the WS champ. I don't know how all you feel about futures betting, but I saw that the Twins were 8 to 1 to win the WS. Does anyone else think this is a bet to throw down some cash on? Seems to me the Twins are always underrated because of just who they are and their market. Any thoughts?

[Billy Baroo]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey all..

Just cruising some of the futures bets at Bodog for the WS champ. I don't know how all you feel about futures betting, but I saw that the Twins were 8 to 1 to win the WS. Does anyone else think this is a bet to throw down some cash on? Seems to me the Twins are always underrated because of just who they are and their market. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it and I don't like it.

Here's what I like: I agree that the Twins have a good shot at going all the way and that they're underrated. Furthermore, the dome & turf gave Boston some trouble and the Twins have proven they can win in Yankees stadium. A few lucky bounces and I can easily see the Twins winning the Series.

Here's what I don't like: Bo Dog is hanging a typically terrible line with obnoxious juice. At Bet 365 the same bet on the Twins pays +1000 (10: 1) at WWTS (www.betwwts.com) the Twins get you +1200 (12: 1). Those are the only 2 books I checked, and both are offering lines vastly superior to what you'd get at Bo Dog.

Bottom line: If you're going to take the time to analyze a game, you should also take the time to shop around for the best line.

FWIW, an even better bet than the Twins might be the Dodgers at +1800... or the Rangers at +25000

[shemp]

There are four teams in the AL -- can the twins be at or better than 3:1 to win AL? If they win the AL -- can they be at or better than 1:1 to win the WS? -- You're almost to 8:1 right there. I can't believe the answer to either of those questions is yes.

[Ed Miller]

These futures lines are almost always terrible. If you want to bet the Twins to win the World Series, just bet them to win their first playoff series. Then parlay that win to their next series. Finally parlay it to the World Series. I guarantee you that it will pay better than 8-to-1 if you do it that way.

[MicroBob]

This surprises me Ed, although I really don't know what I'm doing with sports-betting and haven't been following it for long.

But is MIN really going to get better than +200 on each round?


FWIW - MIN is 10/1 on bodog now.
LA and OAK are both 14/1. not quite high enough for my liking but maybe I can do better somewhere else.

8 teams make the playoffs so MIN at 8/1 doesn't look that strong to me. Especially considering they are likely to not get home-field advantage in the ALCS. I forget which league gets home-field for the WS.

[Billy Baroo]

After reading this post yesterday I decided to find the best odds around for mlb futures. Since I already placed my bets yesterday, I figured I'd share what I found with everybody. Below is a listing of the best odds for each team, the book offering the odds, and the percentage of the time the team must win the futures bet for it to be +EV. These odds are current as of yesterday. I ended up placing bets on both Minnesota and Texas to win the series, and also Texas to win the AL pennant.

EDIT: I just noticed that the odds on Texas have dropped drastically over the last 24 hours.


World Series Champion
New York 400 WWTS 20%
Boston 550 Centrebet 15%
Oakland 1600 Sporting Bet USA 6%
Atlanta 1300 Centrebet 7%
San Fran 2000 WWTS 5%
Chicago 1600 Skybet 6%
St. Louis 375 Intertops 21%
Houston 4900 CRIS 2%
L.A. 1800 WWTS 5%
Anaheim 2500 Sportingbet USA 4%
Minnesota 1500 Centrebet 6%
Rangers 25000 Bet 365 <1%

NL Pennant
Braves 450 WWTS 18%
Giants 800 WWTS 11%
Cubs 750 Intertops 12%
Cards 235 Intertops 30%
Astros 2400 CRIS 4%
Dodgers 850 Intertops 11%

AL Pennant
New York 260 Intertops 28%
Boston 285 Intertops 26%
Oakland 800 Intertops 11%
Angels 1500 Sportingbet USA 6%
Minnesota 550 Intertops 15%
Rangers 15000 Bet 365 <1%

[wuwei]

I was a little unsure about what Ed meant with his post. I'm wondering if when he said "parlay" he meant "press."

That makes more sense to me, and is how I plan to bet on the Twins. Example:

100 @ 10:1 to win WS returns $1100 if they win.

100 to win ALDS returns ~250 depending upon who they play

press 250 to win ALCS returns ~$600

press $600 to win WS returns ~$1400

I think that example includes some fairly conservative line estimates. If the Twins managed to beat the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Cardinals, I could see $100 returning close to $2000. Barring big upsets, I expect the Twins to be big dogs in every series.

Ed, is that what you were trying to say?

I should note that getting a greater return doesn't require +200 in every round. +125 for each would give:

$100 in ALDS returns $225

$225 in ALCS returns $506.25

$506.25 in WS returns $1139

[Ed Miller]

I'm wondering if when he said "parlay" he meant "press."

When I said parlay, I meant parlay. That's what a parlay (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=parlay) is, after all. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Ed, is that what you were trying to say?

Yes.

[Ed Miller]

But is MIN really going to get better than +200 on each round?

If the Twins got +200 on each round, it would pay 26-to-1, not 8-to-1.

[DonT77]

Yes, the Twins can win it all this year - they have as good a chance or a better chance than any of the other teams this year - so anything over 7:1 is +EV IMO (shop for the best price).

Reasoning: Santana is 17-2 1.13 since June and is the best pitcher in BB right now. Radke is hot since August and will be the best #2 starter outside of the RedSox who will have to play all series on the road. The Twins record when Stewart plays LF is like .667 or something crazy like that. Morneau (1B) has like 50 RBIs in his last 60 games. Nathan is an All-Star closer. This team is capable.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
If the Twins got +200 on each round, it would pay 26-to-1, not 8-to-1.

[/ QUOTE ]


Well, that's why I want them to get +200!!

(Otherwise, thanks for the correction. Sorry for the bizarre fuzzy math).

[wuwei]

When I think of a sports parlay, I think of two bets made together where they both have to win for you to see a return.

But after looking at your post again, it's pretty clear how you meant it! So don't mind me. Nothing to see here, move along /images/graemlins/smile.gif