heads up trouble lately

[housenuts]

what is an expected amount of times you can lose in a row heads up? i've lost the last 4 or 5 times i've got down to heads up in SnG's. the last one was unfortunate (my KK lost to 99) but nonetheless i still haven't been feeling confident when down to 2 of us.

i posted this thread in the shorthanded & heads up forum but didn't get many replies. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1041501&page=5&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1#1041501

any ideas would help me greatly. it's such a huge difference in payout between 1st and 2nd.

[SmileyEH]

Even if you played optimally HU and started with even stacks every time your advantage is probably only 55-45. So to lose 5 times in a row is .45^5 = .02. So for every set of 5 HU matches you have a 2% chance of losing them all. So about every 50 matches you should have a streak like this.

In other words: nothing to worry about (I've lost 6 coinflips in a row - rougly the same probability of 5 lost HU matches in a row).

-SmileyEH