When to worry about pocket Aces?

[dfscott]

First orbit -- no reads on villain.

Did I slow down too soon or too late?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">6 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (17 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 17 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 17 BB, between UTG and Hero.</font>

[StellarWind]

When he caps the flop I think rockets are possible and some losing hand like AQs or KK is possible, but most often I expect to see another AK.

My general approach would be bombs away until we've driven out the blinds. Once it's heads up I start calling him down.

So go ahead and raise the turn. I want SB out of this big pot or at least paying the maximum.

I can't believe you checked behind on the river. What were you thinking? Do you get checkraised a lot in this situation?

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe you checked behind on the river. What were you thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

When his opponent caps pre, then leads the turn after hero caps the flop, you have to think aces. Raising the turn is reckless.

Hero's river check is fine - his opponent is a typical party player who freezes up when a 3rd of a suit rivers in a big pot. He's afriad of the flush, hero still loses to AA.

edit - Also, the only other likely hand for UTG, although less likely than AA, is AK, which also doesn't mean hero is missing a bet on the river

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the turn is reckless.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm scared to raise on the turn too. But this is a 17 BB pot after you call the turn. You have to protect your hand. SB probably has quite a few outs to beat one pair. It's likely that he will call one bet (actual result notwithstanding), but if you raise he is faced with two bets, a potential 3-bet and cap, and a strong appearance that someone has a set of aces. Knocking him out is worth sometimes losing 2 BB to AA.

AA is only one hand. AK is six hands. KK is six hands. AQ is eight hands. QQ is six hands. Certainly that one AA is the "more equal" hand. The other hands will often not play this aggressively. But sometimes they do and there are so many of them.

[ QUOTE ]
Hero's river check is fine - his opponent is a typical party player who freezes up when a 3rd of a suit rivers in a big pot. He's afriad of the flush, hero still loses to AA.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't notice the third spade in that context. I guess that's why I don't allow myself to play this late. Checking AA with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif in plain sight seems remarkably dumb, but what else is new? It's possible. I retract my strong remark about the river. But I still want to bet. I've got a real cowboys feeling about his hand. People often get really frustrated when the ace flops.

[Richard Berg]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the only other likely hand for UTG, although less likely than AA, is AK, which also doesn't mean hero is missing a bet on the river


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think that AA is 6 times more likely based on action alone, which is what the statistics would require. Also, if you bet, you may get AK to fold, which would be stellar.

[ QUOTE ]
Checking AA with A in plain sight seems remarkably dumb, but what else is new?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, that just strengthens the need to bet. When you're up against a weak-tight player, getting him to fold an equal (or even better) hand a small % of the time is hugely +EV.

[David BB]

AK isnt folding unless he clicks the wrong button - I guess it might happen.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
AK isnt folding unless he clicks the wrong button - I guess it might happen.


[/ QUOTE ]

HAHA! true though.

Seriously, a better hand or AK fold 0% of the time here.

[Richard Berg]

Villian looks seriously Weak-Tight. Hero pumped the pot on a two-tone flop, kept calling on a turn blank, and popped the river when both flush and straight draws got there. WLLH introduces pot odds but I don't think there is anything quantitive in the section on river play, so the 17BB aren't jumping out in his mind like they are ours. (To Jones' credit, he does say "when in doubt, bet the river" yet this guy was too weak to even do that...no way is it a c/r given the turn action.)

Additionally, there's the sort of Party Clown who is simply full of crap but doesn't like to be caught with his pants down.

Is this stretching? Yes, of course, but the numbers demand it. There is only one way Rockets could be dealt here. Estimate whatever conditional probability you like, call it R. What folding frequencies WT and PC do we need to make betting correct?*

0EV = -1*R + 17*(WT+PC) +/- second-order effects

So if R is 20% (an overestimate in my opinion) and PC is a mere 0.2%, then WT can occur less than 1 out of 100 times and still be a +EV factor.

(edit)
* this is phrased poorly. Betting is mostly correct because of the extra bet you win from KK, AQ, etc. I'm taking ordinary EV for granted here and showing how silly it is that some posters fear the -EV from AA while laughing at factors of equal or greater +EV.

[dfscott]

In case anybody's interested, villain showed down AQo, not what I expected at all. I was really expecting AKo for a split and thought AA was an outside possibility.

[cnfuzzd]

There is one possible combination that gives villian AA, whereas there are several chances for him to have hands that you split with or that lose to you. At this level, i think it is somewhat difficult to put someone specfically on a hand, especially with no read. I would raise the turn. The only hand you are behind is AA, splitting with AK, and substantially ahead of AQ and AJs, which i can see many PP 3 bet with at this level. If you get three bet, i would call the river. Bet the river if a non broadway card falls. LONG LIVE THE LAG

peace

john nickle

I just realized that villian might have KsQs. Chcking behind on this river is quite fine.