Can I fold these trip aces anywhere?

[Rubeskies]

Based on the flop 3-bet, do I fear a rolled up boat or a better ace enough to fold this anywhere?



Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 11.50 BB, between CO and Hero.</font>

[jrobb83]

My line here is to bet out on the turn and fold to a raise.

[namknils]

I definately don't fold this, I would probably bet the turn and call down if there's a raise.

...well I just noticed that the CO raised preflop, but I still don't fold this, maybe he has KK, but he may have the last Ace with a K or Q and you're in trouble. Either way I'm calling down to make him prove it.

[jrobb83]

The reason I don't like calling down is that really the best thing that can happen is he is overplaying a pair of kings, or you split. Any worse ace than your's you split the pot with. If my ace was slightly better I'd probably call down too.

[Eihli]

You've got plenty of outs if the other guy holds Ax [x != K] or a set. Folding the turn is wrong. I would have played this the same way.

this wss directed at jrobb's bet/fold turn play.

[Danenania]

No. Folding never remotely enters my mind.

[Richard Berg]

By my count -- note I suck at this -- you only have 7 outs to beat a set (one A, three K's vs 88 or three 8's vs KK, three 7's). That's not enough to invest 2 bets in the turn. As far as Ax, without a read most people are unlikely to raise limpers with less than AJ, which leaves you with either very few or zero "hidden" outs.

Frankly, the turn card didn't help you at all. It moves you ahead of K8 and gives you more outs to split with AJ-A9, but that's it. I think the EV gained vs. these rare hands is lost the times you split with all the other aces.

Call me crazy, but folding the river looks ok. Seems like you'll be paying off something like AJ more than 9.5 times as often as you'll be against something like QQ. I probably call anyway because I like curiousity more than money.

[Eihli]

[ QUOTE ]
By my count -- note I suck at this -- you only have 7 outs to beat a set (one A, three K's vs 88 or three 8's vs KK, three 7's). That's not enough to invest 2 bets in the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
...assuming you are behind, it's not enough to invest 2 bets on the turn. You won't always be behind.

[Richard Berg]

I guess it comes down to this: how often does someone raise a limper, then 3-bet the flop with something you beat? Ax requires a super LAG from whom we'd probably have gotten a previous read very quickly, as well as all 4 aces being out. QQ/JJ -- requires a very poor postflop player. I'll concede the latter, but this guy is unafraid of a 2nd checkraise even when his vulnerability is rubbed in his face by the turn card. I don't think you can assume this 15% of the time (keeping in mind you have to divide Ax's frequency % by 2).

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
By my count -- note I suck at this -- you only have 7 outs to beat a set (one A, three K's vs 88 or three 8's vs KK, three 7's). That's not enough to invest 2 bets in the turn. As far as Ax, without a read most people are unlikely to raise limpers with less than AJ, which leaves you with either very few or zero "hidden" outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

10 total outs, you forgot your 3 "7" outs.

[Richard Berg]

No I didn't. (Did you double-count the K's &amp; 8's?)

[jrobb83]

But if he holds A9 or better, you only have 3 outs to a win, 4 outs to a split. If he has Ax, x&lt;9, you have 3 outs to win, the rest of the deck to split. Only if he has KK/88 do you have 7 outs. Plus you have to keep in mind the small change he is severely overplaying a hand like KQ.

I honestly don't think he raises pre-flop, 3-bets the flop, (EDIT:) and raises the turn without an ace that can beat the board or a set, and I would fold to the turn raise without a read indicating he would.

[bicyclekick]

Just one of those hands that you're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't.

Obvioulsy you're folding the turn if you don't get an A,7 or diamond...

Can't fold the river even though you really feel you should. I don't make folds like taht, ever.

[Thomsen]

why ??? please explain why it is better to fold to a raise than calling down at the same cost ?

[MAxx]

play it the same way next time, and the next, and the next after that.