Party poker planning to go public..

[1800GAMBLER]

This is a crosspost from the internet forum, article here: http://casinomeister-poker.com/news/september2004.html#PARTY

What's everyone's thoughts on what will happen in the price of their shares?

[brick]

I don't have a prediction but this is pretty interesting.

[Cazz]

Personally, I would avoid a poker stock.

Some potential pitfalls are
1) Trouble w/ the US government. This could be in the form
of cutting off customers at the US end or the DOJ trying
to prosecute companies that service the US market. If
the DOJ went after a poker site, they would probably
choose a company that was visible/easy to find,
had audited financial records, and had easily
trackable assets. Sounds like a publicly traded
company to me.
2) Poker is curerntly either on a uptrend or the recent
growth is just a fad. If it is a fad, when the "poker
bubble" bursts the share holders will be left holding the
bag.
3) Possible new competition. There are some barriers to
new competition, but not a lot. The main obstacle is
getting a "critical mass" of players. Other than that,
it isn't too hard to start a new poker site. Also, if
US law changed (not likely) then Vegas could get
into the internet business, and that could take away
a good chunk of revenue.
4) By most accounts Party mints money, so I don't see any
need for public financing. Whenever I see a company
go public that doesn't need the cash from an IPO for
growth, I suspect that the IPO is just a way for the
owners to sell out at the highest possible price.
This may just my cynical side at work.


Of course, it might take off as a "hot new growth stock",
but I'm too risk adverse.

Just my thoughts.

[eastbay]

wrt legal trouble, could make a fantastic short gamble, especially if you have an in on any legal action.

eastbay

[BradleyT]

Why not take 10% of your wins from now until it goes public and buy some.

Sounds like a good idea to me. I'll be buying if it's not too hard to buy on that exchange.