Position: On which round does it matter most?

Most people are a lot more conscious of position than me, so it's probably a leak in my game. But in what rounds does position have the most impact?


My guess would be


1. Pre-flop,

2. River,

3. Flop.


I guess the turn might go between river and flop, but I hardly ever remember even playing the turn. How would these rankings be affected heads-up on the flop vs. 4-way on the flop, assuming you are nearly always heads-up on the river?


Or is this not even the right sort of question to get my head around this issue?


thanks,


eLROY

...but I hardly ever remember even playing...


I little truth slipped out there.

I usually remember what people looked like, and what they said, a lot better than what cards fell.


But I'll never forget


1) The only time I ever got a Royal Flush, in Artichoke Joe's 6-12. I had one caller, who was all-in a half a bet on the flop. And they had just run out of "I got royally flushed at AJ's" jackets. I'd have rather at least won a pot with TT or something.


2) The first time I ever played 20-40. Garden City didn't have a 10-20 going, so I bit my lip, sat down, and got dealt pocket aces on the first three hands. They held up all three times, except on the second there was a guy who was all-in for the first bet on the flop, and finagled a long-shot straight.


I may not have known much about poker - and I'm sure this was plain - but one thing I had picked up early is that you're supposed to just raise and raise and raise and raise with pocket aces.


eLROY

with all due respect, what have you got against elroy, dino?


every time he asks a question that is concerning him, or makes a statement with which you disagree, you make a facetious remark


give the guy a break - he is obviously striving to become as good a player as you


i would even go further and hypothesise that your comments towards him might make other potential posters leery of asking questions to which serious answers would promote the inherent desire of these forums

Mike,

I think that you are a brilliant guy. I can't thank you enough for your help with the math on some odds calculations. I have played with you at Party and I think you play great as well... but the DINO thing is making me insane. I can't get pictures out of my head of a purple dinosaur yelling yip yip yip and running over Fred. I too respect DYNASTY's opinion but I am having trouble taking his feedback seriously when all I can think of is why the heck he put his head through the roof of the car at the movie theatre - does he know how much it costs to replace one of those (and by the way, why doesn't Fred just jump through the window - there is no glass for goodness sake!) Please, for my sake, if you must abbreviate, please make it Dyno.... /images/smile.gif


Thanks as always,

Kevin

very very funny kevvy!!! my son had to shut the door to the gaming room so he couldn't hear my chuckling - he's a sick boy, of course - plays soccer and golf and pool and stuff - i wonder where he went wrong - i always asked my wife to write me memos on his progress in life - until she ran off with the postman - i've had a hard life


but you don't want to hear my troubles


sorry, kevvy - dyno it is in future


pronounced dino


(and tyvm for your more than kind words)

"so I bit my lip, sat down, and got dealt pocket aces on the first three hands"


total bs I leave it to others to elaborate.

Why on Earth would this be BS?


What possible law of G-d or Man could prevent me from getting dealt pocket aces three hands in a row??


What is wrong with you, Anony?


eLROY

Why don't you dazzle us all with your statistics skills?


Probably for the same reason you leave it to others: YOU DON'T HAVE ANY.


eLROY

it's simple really as an excercise calc yourself. it's either your giving a bunch of bs or a nearly 11 million - 1 shot happened for you. i leave it to others to form own opinions about whether you are posting bs or an 11 million to 1 shot came in.

if it's 11m to 1 for AA, AA, AA, it's also 11m to 1 for AA, 77, 55 - i got that once

I got AA KK AA in a row. 11 million to 1 or 11 bazillion to 1....It's still possible, and it happens.

First, let's consider that I was born. How many sperm were there that day.


Now, let's consider the first face I saw when I got off the subway the other day. What are the odds it would have been exactly that person?


All events in life are highly improbable. Every sequence of cards is improbable. Getting dealt 27 is nearly as improbable as getting dealt AA!


No matter what cards you get dealt in a three-hand sequence, the odds of your getting dealt that sequence is a zillion to one. Does that mean nobody has ever been dealt any cards at all, that it would be all too improbable??


I could post all the improbable sequences I've been dealt. But since I don't, you're assuming I've only ever been dealt three hands in my life.


Anyway, I got about 1 in 5 million just now. On a stupid guess, let's say I have been dealt 10,000 hands in my life. 1 in 500 is like drinking milk!


But what is the point of telling a story of something memorable, if the fact that it was memorable makes it a lie? That's the whole point, I'm telling you it was improbable!


I just don't get you, Anony.


eLROY

I'll give you my real 2 cents eLROY.

Preflop- Your getting info about looseness and aggresion to determine if your starting cards are playable.

Flop and turn- you're getting info about Made hands vs. draws.

River- Info about completed hands.

I think position is important all the time.

thanks for showing i'm right about your bs.

"if it's 11m to 1 for AA, AA, AA, it's also 11m to 1 for AA, 77, 55 - i got that once"


totally wrong thanks for playing

"I got AA KK AA in a row. 11 million to 1 or 11 bazillion to 1....It's still possible, and it happens.""


not the same as getting AA three times in a row. thanks for playing

let's make it simple for me


if you have 3 cards A B and C and deal 1


then it's the same odds you get an A B or C dealt


if you put it back in the deck and deal one again it's the same odds whether you get an A B or C


therefore it's the same odds whether the sequence of two deals produces AA AB AC BA BB BC CA CB or

CC


there - that clears it up for me anyway

and some other guy says yeah it happens I got dealt AA, 55, 77 once.


and some other guy says yeah it happens I got

dealt 55, AA, 77 once.


and some other guy says yeah it happens I got dealt 55, 77, AA once.


and some other guy says yeah it happens I got dealt AA,KK,AA once.


and some other guy says yeah it happens I got dealt KK,AA,AA once.


and some other guy say yeah it happens I got AA,AA, KK once.


and some other guy says yeah it happens I got AA,88,66 once.


and some other guy says yeah it happens I got AA, 77,44 once.


and some other guy says yeah it happens I got AA,66,55 once.


etc, etc, etc.

AA,77,55 in that order is one thing but i bet you would say the same thing about AA,55,77. what are the chances that his aprox 11 million - 1 shot came in vs. chances eLROY's story is bs? i'd put at over a million to 1.

Once I got dealt 63, 45, 92, all in a row, unbelivable, huh?

with all your other bs you brought in. point out one other thing. can anyone see a difference between sitting down at a table and on the 1st 3 hands getting dealt AA and after getting dealt AA getting two other pairs.

Hey tough guy, I've gotten KK 3 times in a row, and, since you are so smart, you should know that since the shuffule is not random, the chances are not actually 11 million to 1 while playing live--as they are (theoretically) online. Also, since he's played more than one hand in his life, your statistic is irrelevant. But you already knew that, right? For someone who has been playing for a while, the number isn't even that big. I'm glad you can cube 221, but you need to learn how to apply math.

again what are the chances its bs that he sat down at the table and got AA on his first 3 hands vs. its bs.

what are the chances the eLROY got AA on his first 3 hands upon taking a seat the first time he ever played $20-40 holdem vs. its bs.


Glenn seems to think that he's a favorite to be telling the truth.


Mike Haven i think says its less than 50-50


Noo Yawk i think says its about 50-50.


i dont know what you think but you know what i think /images/smile.gif

I didn't say 50-50. It's a once in a lifetime happening, but it's possible. My point is I have no reason to doubt him, as I haven't watched every hand he ever played, nor have you.

Too be quite honest, I don't even care that much.

either 100% or 0% since it already happened (or didn't)...the point is moot


I have seen things like this occur because the dealer shuffles poorly, so it is not impossible. Why does it bother you so much?

I've got nothing against eLROY and I'm sure he understands that. He's also had some fun with me as well. This is how he ended one of his posts in News, Views, and Gossip.


eLROY: [i]P.S. Is it really true that Dynasty bears the great white wings of an ascendant angel?


I'm not sure what it meant. But, I'm sure is was a good-natured insult of some kind.

.. It's a once in a lifetime happening, but it's possible. My point is I have no reason to doubt him, as I haven't watched every hand he ever played, nor have you. ..


ok i'll amend it to say that you think theres better than a 50-50 chance its bs. if you didn't care why did you bother with posting about it. i value posters credibility apparently you dont. i dont have to see him any hand got dealt to know that there is very high chance his claim is total bs.

because its an issue of credibility. what do i should i believe and what shouldn't i believe. most likely best thing is to ignore but i couldn't let this cock and bull story pass.

let's make it even simpler for me


let's say you have two cards A and B


you deal one


it's 50/50 whether that's an A or not


put it back it the deck


deal one again


it's 50/50 whether that's an A or not


put it back it the deck


deal one again


it's 50/50 whether that's an A or not


look at the sequence obtained


it has to be one of these:


AAA, AAB, ABA, ABB,


BAA, BAB, BBA, BBB


and every sequence is as likely as another to have occurred


let's call A a pair of Aces, and let's call B a pair of 7's


that means getting three pairs of Aces in a row (AAA) is just as likely as getting a pair of Aces followed by two pairs of sevens (ABB) is just as likely as getting a pair of 7's followed by two pairs of Aces (BAA) etc etc


right


i think i get it now

Yes, judging whether I am a liar, or whether some random person on the 'Net is a liar or not, is a lot better way of figuring out if I really got three aces in a row than cubing 220-something.


And then another step might be to see what I stand to gain by lying, versus by just leaving the story at the royal flush, which could also be a lie (and which was also a pointless tidbit).


But why we are so baffled is why you would use some silly 11-million number, and these aces, to try to prove I am a liar!? It can't be done! (Believe me, I know this better than anybody;)


Because you really have to have something more to go on to before you can even conclude I am a liar yourself. So why not bring out some other evidence?? Or are you really sold on 11 million?


Are you really trying to prove to people something they don't know about math, which would still in no way give any evidence I'm lying? What are you trying to "prove"?? You are the mystery, Anony.


eLROY

I think I could do without the probability police on the boards.


But:


Consider sample space of eLROY and 3 aces.

probability eLROY hit three aces on one notable occasion = 1/(11M)

Number of "notable occasions" eLROY has had in poker (consider sitting down at a table, last hand of the evening, etc.)

I'd guess about 10000.

So odds of having this story truthfully = 1 in 1100.

Now you have to figure what are the odds eLROY would decide to make up hitting 3 aces on a given post. Probably eLROY makes something up for the hell of it is, then, is ... well wait...


You don't know eLROY?

...

You don't have a basis for judging his honesty?

...

Oh, i guess you can't finish your beloved numbers, can you. Not without substituting a preceived "average" honesty for humankind, or internet posters, or two plus two posters, or people with a handle starting with a lowercase letter and finisihing with uppercase letters. But there's a name for assigning characteristics to an individual based on their demographics and relying on them without individual contact... stereotyping. Everyone's welcome to their opinion, but everyone's not welcome to harrass people based on incomplete data.


2ndGoat

Just to turn the tables on Anony, for a moment, let's say he would have also called it a "cock and bull" story if I said I sat down and drew two straight flushes, or 6 pocket pairs in a row.


In this case, the chances of my getting a sequence which, when posted, Anony doesn't believe, might be significantly lower than 1 in 1,000.


eLROY

True. We've probably all got some kind of 11 million to 1 shot story to tell after playing long enough... 11 million events really don't take that long, if you're looking a wide enough variety.


2ndGoat

you're wrong. cards have no memory.

wrong about what? explained myself in several other posts. cards have no memory so what?

he brags that he beats 40-80 hold'em, does better against pros than tourists which means he claims to make most of his money off pros, and writes following in a post


But in what rounds does position have the most impact?


My guess would be


1. Pre-flop,

2. River,

3. Flop.


I guess the turn might go between river and flop, but I hardly ever remember even playing the turn.


believe what you want but i dont believe that anybody who claims to beat 40-80, beats the pros regularly at that limit has a turn strategy that they cant remember even playing on the turn. glad you believe in the tooth fairy too.

i understand your point but i believe hes using selective memory where he would say the same thing about AAAAKK or KKAAAA or AAKKKK or AAQQAA etc. ok elroy sits down at 20-40 for the very first time gets AA on his first 3 hands, hes 1 killin em at 40-80 holdem, beats pros for more money than tourists, and doesnt have a turn strategy as he cant recall hardly even playin a hand on the turn. funny i dont think thats credible at all do you?

First, let's consider that I was born. How many sperm were there that day.


On the day you born? Have you ever had a wife who was nine months gone? Talk about playing position...

(I know, subject has hardly anything to do with this, But i like the quote)


A while ago I'm playing poker with idiots, plus one other friend who's decent.


While playing draw, Idiot says, "I'll always throw away the high cards, there are more low cards in the deck since everyone's holding the high ones."

(The purpose of this post isn't to discuss the merits of this statement. Please don't get started.)


Decent Player proceeds to engage in a heated argument with Poker Idiot about how that makes no sense.


But why? Even if you ignore the fact that if you show someone a mistake of theirs you're costing yourself money, what good does it do? Stroke your ego? Similarly, Is the possibility that someone might be lying about 3 rockets in a row so odious to the sensibilities of humanity that you can't just let it pass? Sometimes people may be wrong, or lying, or mislead, or whatever. But why make a big issue of it... and in this case, why attack someone's integrity when you don't know them at all? Sure, decide for yourself that he's just spreading B.S. nice & thick over the board. But why the crusade? Can't other people make these subjective decisions for themselves?


2ndGoat

I have played nearly 1,000 hours of hold'em since the first of this year.. Most days I "sit down" more than once but that is sort of irrelevant.. I do post multiple late position blinds during the course of a session (taking walks, having a pee, etc..) What are the odds of this happening:


I hold 72o in a late position blind, it gets raised, I fold, and find out I would flop quad 7's. The very next hand I again hold 72o and fold, only to find out I would have flopped quad 2's.


What are the chances that this happened?


Before you answer let me also indicate that the very next hand I held pocket 9's, flop came small.. 9's bigger than the board.. and I lost to 72o?


Does the 3rd appearance of 72o affect the odds of the previous appearances or the chances that I am telling the truth?


Does the fact that, on this same day, I misread my hand (for the first time in years..) and won a pot because of it.. change the odds any?


Does the fact that, on this same day, the waitress at one casino forgot to bring me a simple apple juice and at another a different waitress forgot to bring me a hot chocolate have any impact on the original odds?


Would you believe it was my birthday?


I have been dealt approximately 500,000 hold'em hands in the past decade. I've seen more things than is possible to remember.


I've been beat by 2000:1 shots after the flop.


I watched a guy in a 1/2 hold'em 1/2 omaha game go into the river holding aces full and the nut low lose both ends of the pot when the river card counterfeited his low hand.


I've seen a guy stand up in a 40/80 stud game.. shout out "YOU PUT IN $400 WITH A MOTHER [freaking] PAIR OF FOURS!! I'M GOING TO [freaking] BUST YOUR GODDAMN FACE OPEN"


I was in a 1/2 omaha and 1/2 eight or better stud game.. the table voted to make it omaha only so they added a chair and let a 10th person sit down.. about an hour later the table voted to go back to 1/2 omaha and 1/2 eight or better stud.. nobody realized the problem of having 10 players in a stud game.. so on the first (and only) hand of 8 or better stud there were TWO community cards *AND NOBODY CALLED THE RIVER* even tho the cards didnt appear to help the bettor.


I've seen a floor person tell a player he had 10 second left to act (after he took 5 minutes already) and the guy.. being a prick.. started counting out loud "1... 2... 3..." at which point (at the 3rd second) the floor person physically took the players cards from his hand and tossed them at the dealer.. "this hand is dead.. push the pot over there"


I've seen people die in the poker room.


I saw one guy.. after refusing to show his hand on the river (he called the winners bet) stand up.. shove the cards in his pocket.. and storm out of the room..


I've seen a guy lean over to rake in a pot he just won.. only to have his gun fall out onto the table from his jacket.. (he was quickly ejected from the casino)


I've seen a $300+ pot in 3/6 hold'em where nobody called on the river for another $6.


I once had quads on board in 1-5 stud where I bet 6th street.. got called by *2* people.. checked the river and had to *overcall* on the river to win the pot. (and people say the rake is too high in 1-5)


You never know...

"11 million events don't really take that long."


Of course playing 11 million poker hands would take a full-time pro about 125-150 years depending on hands per hour, hours per year, etc.

By the time you get to the river you have a pretty good idea what the opponent has and the opponent has a pretty good idea what YOU have, thus negating advantages of position.


I think River betting is impacted LEAST by position.


For me, before the flop has the most impact


The flop or turn is based on the tendancies of the opponents; either the betting round THEY like to fold most or the betting round THEY like to bet most when they have the solid hand: If the opponents tend to play un-related to their hand values on the flop (such as tricky checks or bets or routine "one time calls") then the Turn position matters the most. If the opponents tend to play the flop straight-forwardly then the flop position matters more than the turn.


- Louie

yeah. and you are the authority on which strategies are winning strategies. how do you KNOW that having a set way to play the turn is THE BEST strategy? what about the fact that remembering a specific part of a haspecific hand is not necessary to play and play well. as far as beating the 40-80 pros, well, why exactly couldn't he? and beating pros vs. tourists, well, who's to say? have YOU looked at his records? i mean, i don't see how it is impossible. it doesn't matter. i don't see why the guy would lie. and i definitely don't see why his credibility is SO F***in important to you....