Party Poker $10-1 SNGs not really that easy...

[TracyMiller]

OK. Here are my stats after 93 of these:

Finish Frequency
1 2
2 14
3 13
4 11
5 16
6 7
7 12
8 9
9 6
10 3

ITM% = 29/93 = 31.2%
ROI = $(780-1023)/$1023 = -23.7%

I hope my math is correct. So am I just bad, or is this just another case of "too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions"?

Thanks for any advice.

[citanul]

Well, it's possible that both are true.

This is a small sample size, yes, but your results are not good.

Using these as an indicator, I'd have to guess you play the bubble really very badly. That, and that the few times that although you play badly around the bubble you either straggle in heads up, or somehow run goood and get a good stack, you play heads up terribly.

citanul, who apologizes there isn't more to this post.

[Patriarch]

It looks like you are really bad at HU play.

[Gator]

You're not "really bad". If your sample size were large enough to be significant, it suggests you finish in the money 31% of the time. An "average" player monies 30% of the time.

Console yourself in knowing that you are "slightly above average" vs. bad at this point and by reading these forums you will certainly get better.

The fact of the matter is that 70 - 80% of the people online lose money because you have to be well above average to break even (to account for the rake and the top players).

[wjmooner]

Once you get in the money go for first or third. Go down swinging. Do NOT be afraid to push your chips into the middle. Your ITM% is okay, but with an even distribution you would be much closer to being a long term winning player.

Good luck
C

[LinusKS]

93 is a small sample.

I'm in the minority, but I think the Party $10's have even more volatility than other sng's.

I'd be concerned though, about the small number of firsts - either you're playing badly at the short-handed, or you've had some really bad luck.

[TracyMiller]

Thanks for the feedback, guys. I noticed how few first places I have relative to total ITM finishes. I need to work on HU play, for sure. I understand there's a link in the SNG sticky to HU practice, so I think I'll head that direction.

[Jman28]

Althought the sample is small, I'm very confident that you play too weak/tight on the bubble.

It seems like you are playing tight up until then, which is right, but then not really shifting to agression, which is key.

If you are 4-5 handed, people are afraid of missing the money (like you may be) and will be less willing than they should be to call bets.

Once it's down to 5 players, assuming the blinds are at least 100/200, I'm bluffing and stealing as often as I can without making it blatently obvious to my opponents.

Sometimes I get caught stealing when I have 86 and hit the flop. I slow down after that because players now have less respect for my bets.

Even in a $10 game at Party, many players will notice that you've (hopefully) been very tight early on. Use this image as much as you can.

You have to be willing to finish 5th or 4th if it means getting a much better shot at 1st.

As far as heads up play, it appears here that you might go into heads up matches with a huge chip disadvantage (correct me if I'm wrong). While you probably need work on heads up play, bubble aggression will help pad your chip stack and you will often find yourself in the top 3 with 2/3 of the chips in play. This'll make getting 1st easier.

[TracyMiller]

Thanks, JMan...I think you're right on target. I am quite often severely short-stacked when I make it ITM. I'll concentrate on increasing my bubble aggression.

[Solitare]

I found eMarkM posts on accumulating chips through thievery to be illuminating:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tourn&Number=903650

Basically when the BB gets to be 50 or 100 and above, with 4-6 people left, you have to get into bigtime thief-mode. ANY time it is checked to you in the SB, Button, CO or even before, you have to think about stealing. Sometimes even with any two cards, although having some sort of hand helps for the times you are called.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, JMan...I think you're right on target. I am quite often severely short-stacked when I make it ITM. I'll concentrate on increasing my bubble aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

No problem. Let us know how it goes or if you have any more questions.

-Jman28