05-09-2002, 01:58 AM
This is an outstanding book which I'm enjoying immensely; however, I have a problem with this section.
The analysis in this section is correct if we assume our goal is to maximize EV over the next two hands when the blinds are coming up next hand. But this is not my goal if I only have enough to pay the blind. In that case my goal is to survive the blinds, and the correct strategy to achieve that is to play whichever hand has the highest chance of winning. So I play any hand better than the average hand which I assume I will get on the blind. Then if I survive I get the additional expectation of seeing at least 9 more hands.
Also, even if our goal was to maximize EV, in a real poker game the theoretically best cutoff may not differ significantly from the average hand. For example, if we assume that on either hand we will win the blinds and one other hand, and if the average hand will win say 20% of the time, then the optimal cutoff is 21.8%, very close to what we assume of the average hand.
The analysis in this section is correct if we assume our goal is to maximize EV over the next two hands when the blinds are coming up next hand. But this is not my goal if I only have enough to pay the blind. In that case my goal is to survive the blinds, and the correct strategy to achieve that is to play whichever hand has the highest chance of winning. So I play any hand better than the average hand which I assume I will get on the blind. Then if I survive I get the additional expectation of seeing at least 9 more hands.
Also, even if our goal was to maximize EV, in a real poker game the theoretically best cutoff may not differ significantly from the average hand. For example, if we assume that on either hand we will win the blinds and one other hand, and if the average hand will win say 20% of the time, then the optimal cutoff is 21.8%, very close to what we assume of the average hand.