When opportunity knocks

[JeffO]

I'll rarely if ever try to blatantly steal a pot on the river in a multiway pot, but this looked like it might be worth a shot.


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Anybody raise here? 1 more limper and I would have.

Flop: (6 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

River: (7 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>,??

My thinking here is I'm getting about 7-1 on this bluff. Having played the hand exactly like someone who was on a /images/graemlins/spade.gif flush draw, it would be hard for anyone to call with less than a flush.

Results to follow.

[elindauer]

Hi Jeff,

I'm not fond of the flop raise. Your draw is so weak that you have to be extremely confident you'll get a free card on the turn to make this correct. I don't think you can be anywhere near this confident in your typical 15 game.

Having played the hand this way, your river bluff isn't terrible, but I don't think it's profitable against this many opponents. You will win sometimes, but you'll be called here quite a bit, by a lot worse than a flush. If the players were better at reading hands then maybe, but then if they were better your flop raise would be even worse, as better players are more likely to see through your free card play.

I hope this one worked out for you.
Good luck.
Eric

[Louie Landale]

The early callers discourage a button raise with your trouble ranks. QJ is much better against middle or late callers.

Flop raise pretty marginal at best but should work against many profile types.

Yes, "flush" will be the first thing that goes through their mind. But that's a double-edged sword, since they very well think "check-and-call just in case there's a flush" as well as "fold in case there's a flush".

Bluffing this spot is mostly a function of the assertiveness of the two UTG folks: if they are assertive and have been passive then bluffing has a lot of merit; if they are generally passive there is far too much chance they have anough (an Ace) to call, and they can easily have 2-pair they don't like enough to bet.

So bluff against the assertive folks. But if they are assertive you probably do NOT want to be raising with your cheese ON the flop; lets not get 3-bet and end upo heads up.

- Louie

[JeffO]

UTG folded, UTG+1 called with Ace rag, and UTG +2 called with 2 pair Aces over 7's.

I wasn't even thinking about this type of move until the river /images/graemlins/spade.gif got checked thru to me. I put myself in their position and I would be thinking "damn the button caught his flush"

I'll probably put this move on the shelf for a while.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Having played the hand exactly like someone who was on a /images/graemlins/spade.gif flush draw, it would be hard for anyone to call with less than a flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

That statement is completely wrong. After the turn is checked around, a pair of tens (and sometimes less) will usually call a bet from the button. An Ace will almost never fold.

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
it would be hard for anyone to call with less than a flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, Jeff, but that's just ridiculous. Few players in the Party 15 would lay down second pair here.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

My thinking here is I'm getting about 7-1 on this bluff. Having played the hand exactly like someone who was on a /images/graemlins/spade.gif flush draw, it would be hard for anyone to call with less than a flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is the fact Party players regularly call with weak hands not why the games are so beatable in the first place?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

hey jeff,

i'd probably raise this preflop.

as you played it, i don't like the flop raise, unless you know for sure it'll buy you a free card

river bet is fruitless IMO at any party game with 3 opponents

[ QUOTE ]
it would be hard for anyone to call with less than a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats just plain silly.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
Your draw is so weak that you have to be extremely confident you'll get a free card on the turn to make this correct.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it really that weak? If no one has a flush draw, hero has 8 outs to the nuts. If someone has a flush draw, hero has 6 outs to the nuts. Since the real number should be somewhere in between, the raise can't be that bad? Unless there's a 3-bet (and even then it depends on the amount of callers) this raise should make hero money? Add the possible free card and it should be a nice raise? Or do they so often 3-bet and lead the turn even if you cap that it's not profitable?

[JimmyV]

This is a good no-limit play if you have the cojones to come big. But completely out of place in this game, and a waste of a bet. People in this game pay attention to betting patterns, with the board a distant second, and to them your turn check means weakness first and a draw second. They'll look you up every time.

"Sorry, Jeff, but that's just ridiculous. Few players in the Party 15 would lay down second pair here. "


But this is good news!


[ QUOTE ]


Is the fact Party players regularly call with weak hands not why the games are so beatable in the first place?

[/ QUOTE ]

The replies to your post are all spot-on.

JimmyV