Bust out hand from Party $100 7 from $$$...please check my thinking

[woodguy]

Hello All,

I thought about this for a while, and I'm pretty sure I'd do it again. That's why I'm posting this hand, should I play this the same way if the same situation arises?

I'd like some thougths from greater minds than mine to see if I'm off base here.

I watched the big stack grow from 5000 to 30000 with some amazingly bad calls and suckouts. Last 3 guys he busted, he was a dog when all the $$$ went in.

He had called PF raises (in position) with KTs, AJo, and QTo.

I had not seen him show down a group 1 or 2 hand.

He wasn't bullying the table, but would call all ins if he had the other guy outstacked and got very lucky.

57 left, top 50 get paid....BB=800

Big stack MP with 30,000 raises to 2200

Folded to me on the button with 3080 and AKo.

If I push I know he is going to call.

I'm not worried about the SB or BB as I had been stealing from them to get myself to this point, and they had never played back at me when I pushed, and they were playing tight bubble poker and probably wouldn't tangle with the big stack right now.

Would you push with this hand in this spot?

Getting in the $$$ is nice, getting deep in the $$$ is nicer and I think this is a good spot to double up.

Am I overvaluing AK here?
I have busted out of 3 of my last 4 MTT's with AK (in the $$$ and out of the $$$)
My MTT play has improved greatly since joining this forum, but I still stumble with this hand sometimes and feel like a raw rookie when it doesn't hit or hold up.

There are 10 stacks smaller than me, and I could probably limp into the $$$.

Is my thinking off here?

All comments welcome.

Regards,
Woodguy

[The4thFilm]

Yea folding AK with less than 4xBB is a great idea.

[AceSquared]

I disagree...If your playing to just make the money then fold..if you wanna go deep, you should push here knowing your going to be a favorite, possible have his hand dominated.

[Potowame]

Woodguy, I see your thinking here and it does have some merit. Let say the Big stack has any pair from 77-AA here, you are a Dog. And since Alot of the value of AK comes from Folding Equity, IE getting players to fold small pairs preflop with a push, I could see how you would think that this may be a fold situation.

The only reason that I would say fold here is that it seems that you have very passive blinds to steal from. But I really cant see myself Laying this down.

[citanul]

Your sarcasm meter was not switched on.

citanul

[whiskeytown]

I'm gonna say go all in, but that's cause I'm never satisified with the dishwater...

I want the final table and the possible top 3 - so to limp into the dough just doesn't make any sense to me...

take the AK and pray he doesn't suckout or have a hand...

RB

[Tosh]

I'm with Whiskeytown. I take this gamble, I think even if he hasn't been bullying a lot AK is likely a favourite against his range of hands.

[PokerGoblin]

I had a similar dilemma on PP... I was severely shortstacked... about enough TC to survive 2 or 3 orbits and I picked up 88 UTG. I was one place out of the money. I moved in. I didn't sit there for 2 1/2 hours just to get my buy-in back. It folded all the way to my immediate right, the big blind, who BARELY had me covered. He called w/ j-9 offsuit and hit his hand on the flop.

I could have folded and easily lasted another 10 minutes and gotten my money back, but I wasn't likely to go much further. My theory is that so many people play so tight that close to the cutoff, I try to play as aggressively as the cards allow to make a run to the final table.

PG

[Prime Time]

Read my post, I got clipped at bubble time yesterday w/ AK also. Dumb Dumb Dumb. On a bright note, made a final table yesterday. The lesson, hard to get deep into the tourney w/ no chips, and AK will make you, or break you.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea folding AK with less than 4xBB is a great idea.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well put.

Thanks all for your opinions.

It does all boil down to "I'm short stacked, have a good hand, opponent is somehwhat clueless and you are probably ahead, play the damn thing, and if you bubble out so be it"

I don't think the decision is that close....bubble time makes it closer, but I think its still a push.

AK has been my tourny ending hand lately, and I wanted some informed opinions on it to make sure my head wasn't up me arse.

Thanks again,
Woodguy

p.s. big stack had QJs and 2 Q's came to send me home

[gergery]

I’m not one of the greater minds, but I think you are very likely to be a 2:1 favorite over him, and 10 places from any money and 40 places from big money is a great place to continue ring game strategy and get all the money in. I push every time.

--Greg