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MicroBob
09-22-2004, 06:30 AM
Under in NYY-TOR
AZ +121 vs. COL
PHI -101 vs. FLA


Gotta go with the under (9) in NYY-TOR.
El Duque has been terrific. Ted Lilly is coming off a great outing and is hopefully back on track.
+230 isn't enough for me to take the ML on TOR though.

I'm sticking with AZ and Randy Johnson at -121. I made the same bet yesterday but they got rained-out. Big-Unit seems to be getting even better as the season progresses and shows no sign of giving up on the season despite playing for a 100+ loss team.
One of the few times I will actually bet on the favorite in baseball.


CIN-ATL was tempting to me at +212
Hancock has been good since joining the Reds rotation with decent starts in 5 of his last 6 games. But Paul Byrd is hot: 3-1, 1.63 in Sept.
Braves are just coasting into the playoffs but I just can't justify pulling the trigger on this one.


And here's a weird one that I'm going to pull the trigger on.
ESPN.com and MLB.com both list Eric Milton as the starter for Philly. Milton has had 4 days rest so should be up I suspect.
Pinnacle and Bodog and another betting site list Brett Myers as the starter for Philly.
I'm not familiar with which place should have the more accurate information in situations such as this. I'm guessing the betting-sites are on top of the info and that ESPN and MLB just haven't made the update for the change of starters. I've seen mistakes in the rotation on ESPN.com before.

Regardless, I think there's value on PHI either way.

Site 1 and 2 have Phi -101 and -102 and Fla -107 and -108
Site 3 has Phi -115 and Fla -105

Logan Kensing is starting for Florida. They called him up from the class-A Florida State League and he has been shelled at the big-league level in 2 starts (0-2, 11.57).

So -101 on Myers is a decent pick imo....and it would be a ridiculous line if Milton starts.

I'm unchecking the box that 'Myers must start' and am hoping it's Milton.

Kensing is a 22-year-old 2nd-round pick in 2003 out of Texas A&M.
At single-A this year he was 6-7, 2.96, 127ip, 100k, 35bb. The FSL is a VERY pitcher-friendly league though....so the fact that he was 4-2, 1.63 in his last 12 starts this year says a bit more about his promise.
The Marlins like the potential for this guy for the future....but I sure don't like him enough YET to turn-down even-money on him against Philly while he is still getting his feet wet.

craig r
09-22-2004, 06:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm unchecking the box that 'Myers must start' and am hoping it's Milton.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Milton starts you will not get the same line. Your bet is "action" and the odds will be adjusted accordingly.

craig

Lori
09-22-2004, 07:05 PM
WSEX list Milton.

Correction, WSEX list both

[ QUOTE ]
BN 5 9/22 PHILADELPHIA: E. MILTON AT FLORIDA: L KENSING (7:05 pm ET)
Outcome Run Line Total Money Line
PHILADELPHIA: E. MILTON -1.5 +125 OVER 9.0 -105 -120
FLORIDA: L KENSING +1.5 -145 UNDER 9.0 -115 +110
BN 5 9/22X PHILADELPHIA: MYERS AT FLORIDA: L KENSING (P'CHING CHANGE) (7:05 pm ET)
Outcome Run Line Total Money Line
PHILADELPHIA: MYERS +1.5 O.T.B. OVER 9.0 O.T.B. O.T.B.
FLORIDA: L KENSING -1.5 O.T.B. UNDER 9.0 O.T.B. O.T.B.


[/ QUOTE ]
Lori

MicroBob
09-22-2004, 08:49 PM
Good to know.

Milton started and Philly is up 6-0 so I'm happy with the situation.
Kensing is out, 4.2ip, 4h, 6er, 4bb, 3k, 2hr.
Milton has a 2-hit shutout going.


I am looking at my bet-ticket on pinnacle right now and it says that I still got Philly at -101.
Pinnacle takes it off the board once the game starts so I can't tell you what their line ended up as.


The other sites that adjusted for Milton as the starter had Philly at -118 and -128 which I still think is a good deal against a guy straight-up from single-A.
I would have put it at -160 or more.


But, as best as I can tell, it looks like I got -101 on this game on pinnacle by unchecking the box.

MicroBob
09-22-2004, 10:20 PM
i just got paid for the game and you are correct. they did adjust the line.
from -101 all the way to -104.

this was a nice learning experience on what can happen in such situations AND i still notched the win. good stuff all the way around.

Smackdab
09-22-2004, 11:51 PM
MicroBob,

Have enjoyed reading your baseball posts. Great analysis on the Phillies game. Even convinced me to place asmall wager. WTG! Keep up the good work.

MicroBob
09-22-2004, 11:59 PM
Thanks....although I'm not sure how amazing my analysis was on the FLA-PHI game...just looking at common-sense stuff as best I could. Glad we both made money on it though.




NYY-TOR O/U was a push
AZ lost
PHI won
but I had 1.5 units on the PHI game so I had a better than break-even day.