30/60 AJo

[mmcd]

Opponent is typical over-aggro Party 30 player.


Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">6 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

[STLantny]

Im not sure how aggro the 30/60 game is...but would this be a good spot to check/call the whole way?

[nothumb]

Given that he's over-aggro, can you see check-calling the river as well? Seems like he will bet a lot more hands you beat, whereas he might (might?) be more likely to be raising your river bet with a hand that beats you.

Just a thought, I'm not really sure.

NT

[Nate tha' Great]

I like this.

[mmcd]

The reason I didn't check the river is that I didn't want him to check behind (at least a decent possibility given the board). Thhe river raise doesn't necessarily mean I'm beat. It could be a bluff raise or a thin value raise. The way I played it (from his perspective) it looks like I most likely have a mediumish pocket pair. Check calling on the turn and river here never crossed my mind. My hand has too much strength to make that a legitimate line IMO.

I'm pretty sure I played this right, but my other options woulld have been:

Betting out the turn.
I'd call a raise, but by doing this, I think I'd open myself up to a free-showdown play unless I planned on betting the river too. BUT if I did bet the river, I'd have to pay 4bb to see a showdown those times I was behind.

Check-Raising the turn.

I didn't do this because I wouldn't really like to get 3-bet here. I'm drawing pretty live against everything but AA and JJ. There is also a risk (albeit minnimal) of getting raised off the best hand.

Check Raise the River.

I could confidently fold to river 3-bet, BUT there are several hands he can have here that just check behind (but he would call or even raise with them if I bet out)

On the later streets here, I think I want him to put 3 big bets into the pot. With 2, I'd feel like I missed a bet somewhere, with 4, I think I'd probably be beat most of the time.

His river raise after I bet out out of nowhere wasn't unexpected.

I honestly can't think of any hands he could hold that would just call here. He's either thinks he's ahead, or wants me to fold my pocket 7s.

[elindauer]

Your opponent will likely bet an eight on the river, so your river bet offers 2:1 that he has AK and will call vs having a 6 / overpair / set against which you'll payoff a raise. This is not a good bet the action so far.

Check-raising the turn or check-calling the river are both superior to your line, IMO.

Good luck.
Eric

[NMcNasty]

At 30/60 I think UTG+2 is a tad too early to come in with AJo.

On the flop, even with an overly aggressive player I would fold. This call is really bad against most hands that were 3 betted preflop. If your opponent is the type to reraise preflop with KQo, any pair, any suited 20, and any Axs, then calling would be correct, but otherwise I think its a clear fold.

Against an overly aggressive player I would just check call the turn and river, because you will be punished if up against a large pair. Against a wild player, check raising the turn would probably be best.

[steveyz]

Looks fine to me.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey mmcd,

Against a player I don't have pegged as too loose or too aggressive, I fold the flop. Depending on the opponent I give myself as few as 3.3 outs.

GoT

[mmcd]

Against a player I don't have pegged as too loose or too aggressive...

I have him pegged as both.

[turnipmonster]

how did you get 3.3?

--turnipmonster

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
how did you get 3.3?

--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

my calculation shows 3.1 outs, should i be more optimistic?

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how did you get 3.3?

--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

my calculation shows 3.1 outs, should i be more optimistic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assume my opponent has 77-AA, AK, AQ, or KQs about 80-85% of the time he 3-bets me here. The other 15-20% of the time he has KQo, a pocket pair smaller than 77, random suited connecters, or random suited paint.


Also, I think in games like the Party 30 (and tougher)
it's big mistake to play "fit or fold" too often on the flop after your open raise gets 3 bet. More often than not, you will be open-raising big cards, and more than not you will not flop a pair. If check-fold the flop too often after getting 3-bet preflop, you will find yourself getting 3-bet preflop a lot . Also, when you do have a hand, it will be easier for your opponents to avoid spewing chips at you post flop on bluffs, semi-bluffs, and thin value bets and raises.

[mmcd]

He has pocket 10s. I win.

[mplspoker]

I think betting out on turn is best. If raised call down. If not keep betting. Check raisiing turn is good too. Very few hands that you are behind. AA,KK,QQ,JJ. That's it. Granted those are most 3bet hands, but still.

[mmcd]

If I checkraise, I might lose him if I'm ahead, allowing him to escape the turn/river rounds having paid only 1 big-bet.

Also, he is capable of 3-betting for a free showdown (if he planned on calling down anyways) and my hand really doesn't like getting 3-bet on the turn. There is a small chance that he would 3-bet the turn on a pure bluff.

I don't really see what betting out accomplishes. He will almost certainly bet when I check to him. If he calls my bet with AK, AQ, he may be able to lay it down unimproved on the river when I bet again, whereas when I check-call the turn and bet the river he will almost certainly call with these hands,, and might even raise with them in attempt to blow me off a small-medium pocket pair.

If he raises my turn bet and I call and check the river, if he checks behind with a worse hand that he would have called a river bet with, my image (and maybe my ego too) suffers beause he outplayed me. I allow him to take control of the the hand (and me for that matter) and let him make the decision as to whether or not a bet goes in on the river.

I don't like leading the turn there unless I'm prepared to lead-3-bet, and in this situation with this hand against this opponent, I think doing that would clearly be overplaying.

[Paluka]

I would fold the flop.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Monster,

how did you get 3.3?

Just a quick mental estimation. After seeing you post I decided to do some quick division though to see how close I was and so I could have an answer for you.

If I decide to put his range of hands as AA-99, AK-AQ, and KQs, then I have 3.7 outs assuming all of these hands are equally likely. It may be that he'd be more likely to 3-bet the stronger hands than say 99 or AQ though (as maybe sometimes he'd cold-call) so maybe 3.3 is close. But either way, I'd give our hero between 3 and 4 outs. Thus, I fold.

GoT

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Monster,

how did you get 3.3?

Just a quick mental estimation. After seeing you post I decided to do some quick division though to see how close I was and so I could have an answer for you.

If I decide to put his range of hands as AA-99, AK-AQ, and KQs, then I have 3.7 outs assuming all of these hands are equally likely. It may be that he'd be more likely to 3-bet the stronger hands than say 99 or AQ though (as maybe sometimes he'd cold-call) so maybe 3.3 is close. But either way, I'd give our hero between 3 and 4 outs. Thus, I fold.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

Guy,

Your calculations look spot-on but I think there is at least something to what mmcd says about not wanting to get pushed around in this game. The 30/60 Party plays something like a B&amp;M game in that players tend to be seated for longish sessions and usually have a pretty good read on one another's tendencies.

He needs something like 4.5 outs to make the call +EV assuming that his opponent always bets the turn and the implied odds situation on future streets is about neutral, so he's coming up short by an out or so. Calling works out to about a 0.10 BB mistake if he really has 3.5 outs. I think you can make the call if you also had some backdoor outs, or if you feel that you've been getting pushed around a lot, or if your opponent checks behind on the turn too frequently.

btw, I came with with a weighted average of 3.67 outs against the range of hands that you assigned to the opponent, which I think is reasonable. If you add 88/77 and AJs/ATs to the mix, you get up to 4.33.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Kenny,

my calculation shows 3.1 outs, should i be more optimistic?

You mock, but this is seriously how I play poker.

GoT

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]
I like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also think mmcd's line is exactly right.