Hello,Players! The Player with the BEST...

starting hand in stud or hold'em will have the best hand at the showdown with a probability of at least 1/2.

Is there any evidence to support or refute this hypothesis?? Sitting Bull

If it is a heads up game, this is true by definition, because having the best hand means winning 1/2 of the time. Therefore, JTs is a better hand than 22.


If you are in a full ring game, it is certainly not true. But of course you know this, so I am unsure what you are asking.


Mike

aware that the hypothesis was NOT TRUE in a full ring game. Why not??

Sitting Bull

http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm has a list of how hands do with a given number of opponents for holdem. I don't know where a similar chart for 7 stud is.


There's no reason to assume a given hand should win over 1/2 the time. It is reasonable to assume the best hand would win over 1/n of the time where n is the number of opponents seeing the flop.

In hold'em, AA will win against nine random hands approximately 31% of the time if all play to the showdown. I think that it is therefore safe to say that the best hand will not win more than 50% of the time in a multi-way hold'em pot.


I believe that in stud, Aces against six opponents playing random hands to the river wins right around 30% of the time as well. You can't do a simulation against seven opponents because you'd run out of cards. Sometimes, of course, someone is rolled-up, and I think that those hands hold up more than 50% of the time, even with everyone staying in. I believe that my win rate with rolled-up trips is around 80%, although I'm 3-4 lifetime with (AA)A. The best third-street hand, on average, is going to be something less than a pair of Aces, I do believe, so I think it's safe to say that the best hand in stud holds up less than 50% of the time as well.