Another MONSTERS under the bed post!

[zuluking]

I hate to say it but....I had no reads on them! Only 14 hands each. I got SCARED of AA and chickened out on the river. Justified or Chicken $hit?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls $0.25 (All-In), <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (27 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 33 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero has Qh Qs (full house, queens full of nines).
MP1 has 7d As (two pair, aces and nines).
MP2 has Qd Jh (two pair, queens and nines).
MP3 has Kc 9d (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: Hero wins 33 BB. </font>

[Yerma]

Hi zuluking,

For what it's worth, that's exactly the amount of action I would have put in. But the next time you're in a hand with that guy...

[Sent]

I play it like you play it on the river fearing AA, but on the river there is only a 0.4% chance that someone has AA (3 ways) or 99 (1 way).

-Sent

[Gatts]

When I get in a situation like this, I close my eyes, raise, and hope he's overplaying something. I'm usually right.

[Jeff W]

I cap every street without fear. It's Party $.50/1.00 for god's sake. =] To not cap the river you have to believe there is at least a 50% chance that you will lose and it probably has to be greater than that. Assuming both players will call any number of bets here, you gain 2 bets when you're ahead and they call, 4 bets when you're ahead and its capped, and lose two bets when you 3-bet and call a cap and are behind. You've gotta be +EV here even if they might have 99 or AA(unlikely).

[frank_iii]

[ QUOTE ]
I play it like you play it on the river fearing AA, but on the river there is only a 0.4% chance that someone has AA (3 ways) or 99 (1 way).

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you arrive at those percentages? While I absolutely would have 3-bet the river, I think you're underestimating those chances given the betting patterns.

[Sent]

[ QUOTE ]
How did you arrive at those percentages? While I absolutely would have 3-bet the river, I think you're underestimating those chances given the betting patterns.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are just percentages of him getting dealt those hands before, if he has it now, then he has it, that's why I would slow down on the river. But since only AA and 99 have him beat you figure that there are only 3 ways left of someone having AA (AcAd, AcAs, AdAs) and only one way for 99 (9d,9s)

45 unseen cards leads to 990 possible hands C(45,2). So 4/990 is 0.4%

-Sent