How Would You Play THIS Hand?

I thought David Sklansky's PLO hand looked familiar. Below is a similar problem from one of Bob Ciaffone's poker quizzes on PokerPages. I agreed with David Sklansky on his hand, although I thought a sort of case could be made for calling. I think Ciaffone's question is a lot less clear cut.


Bob Ciaffone's question:


>>In a pot-limit Omaha $25-50 blind money game, you pick up As-Ah-Ks-8c in middle position. You have $3000 in front of you, and all the other players involved have in that neighborhood. The first two players limp in, and you make it $250 to go. The button calls, and the big blind, a normally solid player, reraises the maximum, making the total bet $1175 straight. The two limpers both call and it is up to you. What do you do?


>>{Ciaffone's answer was to fold)


>>Explanation: The reraiser likely has the other two aces, so you will probably split the pot even if your hand holds up-and a hand with two dead aces in it is not very likely to be good at the end in a five-handed pot. It is highly unlikely that anyone will fold now, so a reraise is not going to narrow the field. Don't marry aces at pot-limit Omaha; use your head.

As-Ah-Ks-8c:


* if the aces are out you probably split as said.

* if you hit the spades you will not get any

action (since you have Ks).

* if one King flops somebody else probably has KK

(with all that action).


so you gotta pray for a broken board, QJT or spades to take down the pot.


the 8c does not belong in the hand at all -

playing a 3-card hand vs 4 other players for

_big money_ does not seem to be a good idea.


you still have 92% of the inital stack left so wait for a better oppurtunity.


in clear daylight - my tuppence worth /images/wink.gif

OmaHal

Ohno,


Once the big blind pops this one, your hand is worthless ; best to write off the $250 invested as a small hit and wait for another hand. As in the Sklansky hand, I'd likely figure

the reraiser for the other two aces.


Actually, I'm curious what the limpers have in order to call, and would like to have them in my PLO game!


perfidious

There is 3800 in the pot and you've got 2750 left. With that much money in the pot already you only need to win about 22% (2750/12000) of the money to break even by just pushing in your stack (assuming all call). Unfortunately, that is unlikely if the hands out are reasonable. For instance against:


AsAhKs8c - 0.165 ev

AcTcAdQd - 0.217 ev

7s5s7c6c - 0.292 ev

Jd9dJhTh - 0.326 ev


You would be taking way the worst of it. Even if the reraiser does not have aces, you aren't looking too great. In the best case you will be a small money favorite (both aces live):


AsAhKs8c - 0.214 ev

AdKdKhQh - 0.204 ev

7s5s7c6c - 0.348 ev

Jd9dJhTh - 0.234 ev


or


AsAhKs8c - 0.287 ev

KcJcKhQh - 0.207 ev

7s5s7c6c - 0.253 ev

Jd9dJhTh - 0.253 ev

Very interesting, but I think you have chosen probably pretty unflattering "other" hands since all your models make a broadway straight very very hard to get for the AAK8 hand. So I think it may be a bit more marginal than your numbers suggest. Also, these are the odds for pushing all in, and do not deal with just calling, which I think gives some play.


Oh no!! Not again!

Well what kind of hands are the limpers going to call 1125 cold with (especially the first one when there is only about 1600 in the pot?).

Well they don't have to have a fistful of tens, jacks and queens, that's all I meant. In fact, they are less likely to have those cards if they are any good, since they know that you own the top end of the broadway straight. But it's only a small point, your numbers are a very useful indication.


Oh no!! Not again!