What to do with this boat?

[SmileyEH]

Opponent isn't horrible, but is on the loose passive side like most partyers.

What is your turn action? If bet, how much?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

BB (t775)
UTG (t740)
UTG+1 (t1605)
MP1 (t645)
MP2 (t685)
Hero (t690)
CO (t1255)
Button (t970)
SB (t635)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t195) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets t175</font>, BB calls t175.

Turn: (t545) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks

[jah0550]

I would check on the turn. Let him make a hand on the river and bet into you. Hopefully he is on a flush draw and hits. If the river is a blank, try a value bet, about 100 or so.

[RavenJackson]

IMO it is strong enough to slow-play [although I have had my boat sunk by quads...but the smooth call on the flop and the loose play make me think he doesn't have 1010], check the turn.

[Manimal]

Check and pray he makes a 2nd best type hand and bets it out.

[tallstack]

What could your opponent have here? If he was on a draw with KQ (or much less likely 98) then he hates that turn card. If he had the case J or an underpair then he hates that turn card. If he had a T or pocket 8's then he loves the turn card and was likely looking to check raise.

I think that checking behind will induce a river bet on any hand that was strong plus any draw that hits the river. Betting the turn may chase him away if he was on a draw, and if he had a hand it won't likely get you much more money since there would likely be a lot of action on the river anyways.

Dave S

[golFUR]

I disagree with the two previous posts saying you should check it. I do think you should bet.

While I realize this easily turns into an endless chain of "paper rock scissors" logic I think my own recent experience backs up my logic here.

First let me note I play at UB, home of the incredibly ridiculous "bet pot" button. I think players are trained differently with this button but the logic is still valid.

You raised preflop from a short stack. He knows you have something. He checked out on the flop but called your bet. He is on a draw of some sort. To give him a free card now is begging him to believe you are incredibly weak, or advertising the fact that you have a nut hand unlikely to be outdrawn. It seems to me lately that they tend to believe the latter more often than the former.

The pot on the flop was 195 chips? You bet 175 into it and he called. His stack wasn't much larger than yours so he felt he was drawing to the nuts or he already has a pretty strong hand and he is slowplaying it. For him to check the turn to you is either a signal that he is done drawing, any bet now is going to take it down, or he has what he believes is a monster and is not going to go away no matter what, a sizeable bet might even get you a reraise. To check behind him now I think would give it all away. You are short stacked, you raised preflop, bet the flop, now you are just going to roll over when he's done nothing to show strength but call behind?

On the turn there is 545 in the pot? Bet 200. It looks like you want the pot but aren't sure its yours anymore. Betting the pot would send him away if he didn't have what he thought was the strongest hand, betting the pot would send him away if he was still drawing. A bet of 200 might be interpreted as a value bet, but its just as likely (in my experience more likely) to be seen as a suddenly too small bet or as a crying bet. He might bluff reraise or call on his draw.

As well, if you check on the turn and he misses his draw on the river, a check to you followed by a sizeable bet will certainly go uncalled. Whereas if he misses his draw on the river, and you send out another bet that seems too small, you give him one more opportunity to misinterpret weakness and perhaps try the bluff.

Two more posts went up while I was typing this, they agree with the check. Let me note that I am writing this from the perspective of "what is most likely to get me the most chips"? If he has nothing, or if he has a weak draw that never hits, the only way to get anything out of him is to induce a bluff. The only way to induce a bluff is to portray a hand that can be bluffed, an overpair or AK. If he has 2nd or 3rd best the only way to get his money is to convince you don't have 1st best. A check on the turn signals that possibility.

"Nobody bets with the nuts, that'd be dumb, it might scare them away." Goes the logic. That is exactly why I bet the nuts, I want to induce big stupid plays. How many times have you had quads that didn't get paid? Or hit a scary flop so hard that you just knew there was no chance of getting paid on it? Its from that perspective I say bet the turn...

[BradleyT]

I disagree. You're way ahead with very little chance of losing here.

Let him make his hand whether it be diamonds, a straight, trips tens, AK/AJ, etc.

You want to charge a draw TO BEAT YOU as much as possible to get there. You want to charge a draw to a second best hand as little as possible or nothing to get there.

[woodguy]

What buy in level is this?
Has the villian shown aggression in other hands?

I mix up my play when fortunate enough to be in your position.

If villian has passively drawn at other hands and folded on turn or river, I'd check the turn hoping he makes a better hand.
If he checks the river make a the value bet that you think he might call.

If villian has been aggressive, I'd put a small bet in on the turn (maybe same or less as flop bet), trying to show weakness so he comes over the top.

All of this is dependent on buy in level as I actually find the $200/$100 players more apt to come over top a weak turn bet than at lower levels.

At lower levels I just like to feed them as much as they will call, as there are more calling stations at this level and the villian (if passive) won't call the turn without a hand.

Alot of players in the lower buy ins also will not recognize a small turn bet as weakness and just fold to it.

Just MHO.

regards,
woodguy

P.S. did he show down? and if so, with what?

[JasonK]

I'd bet about 100 and hope he interprets it as weakness and bets out on the river.

[Cartridge]

ditto.

[SmileyEH]

I forgot to mention the buy in - it was a $30, although I don't think it makes much of a difference between the 10-30 range. My guess was this player was slightly above average in skill.

I really felt a small bet would look suspicious because I would be obviously pot comitting myself - I really doubted he would call an all in with that board so I checked behind. River was an unfortunate brick and I bet all in after was checked to (I hated this the moment I did it). I'm still not sure what I should have done in this situation , and the variety of opinions makes me think I am not alone.

After I checked behind I think a smaller bet on the river should have been made, although I really suspect he was just on some kind of draw so in that case a small bet on the turn would have been best.

-SmileyEH

[stupidsucker]

My guess is he has the 9 and is looking for a str8. I bet this turn because I think he is on the draw. Its possible he has AJ but I doubt it.

Not betting small because it looks suspicious is understandable, but most party players dont think that far ahead and will call you. Checking here is giving a free card sure, but I think if he is on the draw he will call the turn bet anyways beacuse the pot is big enough. Best part is he is almost guaronteed to be drawing dead. the chances of him having QQ-AA playing like that are nil. AND he would have to catch the 2 outer to win. Make him pay for the river card.

[kevyk]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent isn't horrible, but is on the loose passive side like most partyers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your course of action is clear, especially if you think he's on the draw.

You say he's loose, which means he'll call bets even when pot odds say he shouldn't.

You also say he's passive, which means that he probably won't make an aggressive move on the river if he misses or if he makes something marginal.

You have to bet this for a couple of reasons.

First, let's say he's on a straight or flush draw. He has 8 or 9 outs, so he's only going to make his hand 17-19% of the time. If you check, you get nothing the roughly 80% of the time you check the turn and he folds on the river. Your payoff is the same if he gets there whether you check or bet, since he'll call all his remaining chips.

Second, if he's loose and passive, and has a hand, the best way to extract money from him IMO is to get him pot-committed. I find that the fish on Party will often call a 2/3-pot bet without bothering to think about whether they can lay it down later or not. Then when they miss on the turn, they reason "Well I can't lay it down now...he could be bluffing me!"

Make a nice, chunky bet on the turn, as if you are trying to charge him to draw. On the river, if he misses, you bet again because he's loose-passive and probably won't bet a marginal holding but will call with one.