Can someone explain how this can be right?

[Guernica4000]

From cardplayer.com free poker odds it shows that:

TT vs AKo the odds are: 57/43

SO my question is why is AK favorite 3 handed over QJo and TT?

AK= 40%
TT= 32%
QJ= 28%

Sorry if it is a stupid question but I just didn’t expect to see those odds.

[slavic]

The reason is that QJ takes more pot equity away from TT.

Notice there are now 4 overcards to beat TT and not just 2. So 12 outs and 5 times.

[Guernica4000]

I figured that the TT is not as strong since there are 12 over cards but I don't understand how AK becomes the strongest hand since the TT can win unimproved and the AK needs an A or a K since a straight is less likely with the cards in play.

I always thought the best hand before the flop was the hand that could win unimproved.

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
Notice there are now 4 overcards to beat TT and not just 2. So 12 outs and 5 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

The overcards still need to come, though. QJ and AK together may have 12 outs, but TT has 34 outs. AK and QJ cannot win unimproved, while TT can. I don't think the possibility of straights and flushes with AK and QJ is enough to make them such overwhelming favorites.

You were involved in a tourney 3-way all-in, wouldn't you rather have TT? There are plenty more non-AKQJ cards than there are AKQJ cards.

[Lost Wages]

AK goes from 43% headsup to 40% with QJ in so it's not like it does better, it actually does worse. It's just that TT does much worse facing 4 overcards instead of 2.

Lost Wages

[Guernica4000]

But Lost Wages, does this mean that a player knowing the math would rather have an AKo before the flop 3 handed than a PP (excluding AA and KK)?

[Lost Wages]

does this mean that a player knowing the math would rather have an AKo before the flop 3 handed than a PP (excluding AA and KK)?

Well, that's a very general question. Showdown win percentages of preflop hands are generally only useful for no-limit and/or tournament situations where one of the players is all-in befor the flop so there will be no further betting.

AK does well under these circumstances against a pocket pair of QQ or less because it gets 5 chances to make a pair and when it does it will usually win. When there is betting after the flop, AK doesn't fare as well since it won't pair the flop about 2/3 of the time and will often have to fold (especially in no limit).

Lost Wages

[slavic]

The last thing I'm looking for in a tourney is a 3 way all in with TT when I'm covered. Heads up and take the coinflip is ok but having 5 chances at 12 outs sends me packing close to 70% of the time.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
You were involved in a tourney 3-way all-in, wouldn't you rather have TT?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how you can be this wrong when it's already been posted that AK is a favorite vs QJo and TT.

[ QUOTE ]
There are plenty more non-AKQJ cards than there are AKQJ cards

[/ QUOTE ]

But AK (or QJ) only has to hit once to beat TT, while TT has to "hit" five times to beat AK and QJ.

[Cerril]

Notice that AK's 43 drops to 40. In both cases you're assuming that you win if you're hit by the board harder than your opponent (you pair, he doesn't improve being the vast majority of that).

AK doesn't lose much at all though because generally if it pairs, it still beats QJ even if a Q or J falls. QJ needs to hit twice to beat AK if AK hits, so those times where AK pairs QJ becomes a massive dog. On the other hand, if QJ pairs then AK will still beat it as long as it beats TT (which it would need to anyway those 43% of the time)

QJ against TT is fairly good (about as good as AK if AK isn't in the pot) but both of those have much greater chances of becoming third best hands than AK does (most of the 32% that TT wins AK is still second best).

[12AX7]

Though Roy West's book was on stud... somewhere in there he says in emphasized text that "your poket pair may be good against a single drawer, but against several drawers you are *collectively* beat" or thereabouts.



[ QUOTE ]
From cardplayer.com free poker odds it shows that:

TT vs AKo the odds are: 57/43

SO my question is why is AK favorite 3 handed over QJo and TT?

AK= 40%
TT= 32%
QJ= 28%

Sorry if it is a stupid question but I just didn’t expect to see those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[12AX7]

Interesting observation.

One thing I was thinking though.

57% of one opponents' money is less than 32% of two opponents' money... so why would I care?

.57 * 1 = .57
.32 * 2 = .64

So I actually am in a more profitable situation with two callers right? It's just that the character of the win loss curve would look different right? (Win 1 - Lose 1) approximately for 1 oppoent. (Win 1 - Lose 2) for 2 opponents, true? So the idealized win loss curve for TT in the second case starts to look more like the one for a drawing hand like a flush or straight? (I.e. many losses to each win).

Or am I really guilty of fuzzy thinking here?

[ QUOTE ]
AK goes from 43% headsup to 40% with QJ in so it's not like it does better, it actually does worse. It's just that TT does much worse facing 4 overcards instead of 2.

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

[TomCollins]

Because you are losing 68% of the time vs 43%.

Assume $100 from each player all-in.

EV #1 is $100*.57-$100*.43= 57-43 = $14
EV #2 is $200*.32-$100*.68= 64-68 = -$4.

Pretty significant difference.

[12AX7]

Yes, I have to claim multi-tasking stupidity here. It dawned on me I only did half the EV equation. Forgot the (prob of failure * cost) term.

Realized it driving home.

Very dumb...

Thanks for catching it so no one accepted my mistake.

[ QUOTE ]
Because you are losing 68% of the time vs 43%.

Assume $100 from each player all-in.

EV #1 is $100*.57-$100*.43= 57-43 = $14
EV #2 is $200*.32-$100*.68= 64-68 = -$4.

Pretty significant difference.

[/ QUOTE ]