Opinions on this play

[Chuckster]

Live cash game at my buddy's house. Pretty loose game, but it has been surprisingly tight.

5 players, blinds are 1-2. Im in the BB. and get dealt 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Everyone calls up to the SB who makes it another 5 to go. I call, as does everyone else.

Raiser is famous for being really loose and he is capable of having literally any hand. I got about $140 at the time and he has about $80

Flop comes: 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

The raiser comes out for $10. BTW, he is also famous for check-raising and slow playing. However I had a feeling that he had a High Pocket pair. (AA or KK I figured) bc that flop obviously scared him. He also respects my raises and rarely gets involved in my pots (has actually told me this). Anyways, I put him on a pair and figure that I have 13 outs (j,j,j,j,6, 6, 6, 6, 9, 9,8, 8,8 ) Instead of just calling and becoming commited, I decide to semi bluff and go all-in. Everyone folds to raiser, who after thinking for a while, calls with QQ. 2 blanks hit and half my stack is gone

Any opinions on this hand???? what would you guys do?

[Kaz The Original]

You said he was really loose. I don't like bluffing, or semi bluffing loose players.

[eyekast]

fold pre flop. that hand is not worth a raise. seeing as though you played fold it on the flop its not worth chasing. one of your hole cards is counterfieted by the board and there's a flush draw. if you hit your card you could easily lose to a flush , higher straight , full house if someone is holding say T9, or at best split the pot. its not really the raiser you need to be worried about cause your drawing to beat him its the other guys who are surley drawing. plus ten is tooo much to pay any way..

chris

[ChipMagnet30]

I think you should've just called on the flop, because if you really believe he has a high pocket pair, why risk everything when you can get all of his money later when you have actually made a hand. If you miss, you live to see another day. If you trust your instincts, I think you might've played that hand better.

[eyekast]

calling is the worst play. fold being the best. raising(not all in) is somewhere in between..

[Chuckster]

I disagree with folding preflop. There was already 10 bucks in the pot, he made it 5 more, and I was sure others would just call so it is a nice pot and I have a nice suited connector. 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I cant just sit and wait for monsters all night.

If you look at the odds it is about 50/50 for me to win the hand, after the flop (QQ is actually a 53% favorite).

I think I should have just called the 10 bc at the time there was 45 in the pot.

[eyekast]

the best he could hope for is a one card straight, a back door flush, or runner runner 8, its not even remotley close to being a good draw.

[Chuckster]

Your right. If I call it is just giving it a way that i am on some sort of draw and he will unload on the turn (likely all-in). That is also why I went all-in. I liked my draw, figured I had 13 outs, and figured instead of just calling--missing on the turn-- and then facing an all-in bet with just one card to go, I might as well push them in, have 2 cards to see, and put the pressure on him......then I have 3 chances to win= the turn, the river, or him folding

[Chuckster]

How is it not a good draw???

I win with JJJJ,6666, 99, 888

That is 13 outs!!

Better than average draw.

[elnino12]

Staying in preflop is somewhat reasonable, except that you are out of position especially with a drawing hand like 8 9 suited. But since you called the SB's raise, the flop becomes a lot more interesting. A $10 raise at this point is clearly meant to protect an overpair from flush or straight draws. You cannot call this bet because: it makes your hand look weak, you've unwillingly committed yourself to an unmade hand, and someone behind you might raise if they hit a set, 2 pair, or a straight. Either fold immediately, or raise with an amount that isn't such a blatant semi-bluff. But understand that if he checks to you on the turn--you will probably have to go all in to keep up the bluff. And this is not a good strategy to use longterm against a loose player. Always be thinking how you will have to play when the next card hits the board. With that mentality, this hand should be folded as soon as the $10 raise comes out. Just walk away from your $7 and live to fight another hand.

[eyekast]

here's how your hand stacks up with five other possible hands that could be out ...as you can see QQ isn't much to worry about its what other hands are out against you.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8s 105 15.77 561 84.23 0 0.00 0.158
Qs Qd 16 2.40 641 96.25 9 1.35 0.031
Ts 9h 149 22.37 517 77.63 0 0.00 0.224
Qh Jh 93 13.96 564 84.68 9 1.35 0.146
Ac Jc 230 34.53 436 65.47 0 0.00 0.345
9d 7d 64 9.61 602 90.39 0 0.00 0.096

[Chuckster]

True, considering we were the first two to act, I could have been up against an even more formidable foe that QQ. However, with a 10 dollar bet and then an all-in (and only a 5 player game), I like my chances that none of the other 3 players have something that they would call a raise, followed by an all-in.

[DrPublo]

13 outs, true...some of which may be redrawn against (if he has AcKc or he could go runner runner boat with a big PP if you trip up on the 9).

But the real reason that it's not a good draw is that it's so obvious. Come on, how many big pocket pairs do you know tha pay off one card straights? And if another club hits, forget it, that will kill your action as well.

"Good draw" depends on more than just how many outs you have.

The Doc

Afterthought: The flop all-in feels like a semibluff. If you had a hand you would wake up on the turn (except maybe a set, and I guess villian will take his chances against that). I think in that spot, for those stack sizes, I call a decent amount of the time with the QQ there as well.

[eyekast]

your missing my point..i'm not saying there's not a good chance of hitting your hand actually you hve a great chance to hit your hand ,BUT chances are it won't be the best and if your going to call raises and push your stack in then you want to know your drawing to the nuts..which in the case your not...

[Kaz The Original]

Infact calling is by far the best play. There is $35 on the flop, and a bet of $10 gives you 4.5 odds to call. Go with the read. His play is VERY unlike a made straight, AND EVEN IF HE HAD A SET you would be correct in calling the straight draw.

8 outs is enough, not to mention 13.

[eyekast]

also i forget to add the possibility of a flopped set silly me

[eyekast]

the reason i'm so into this post is because i just had a VERY similar hand on UB.

anyway, kaz if the raiser does infact have an overpair then calling is the worst play because it keeps the rest of the field in on the hand raising is likely to get everyone else out and isolate the overpair thus giving you a better chance

also if the game is loose a player might have already flopped a straight meaning you were drawing to a splitpot

also by raising you hide your hand somewhat so maybe you can get a little money when you hit