In which I push Thirddan off overcards.

[bisonbison]

UTG+2 is tight but seems slightly on tilt.
MP1 is thirddan, though I've just realized this might be a martial arts ranking thing instead of his name with "third" in front of it.
No read on the posters who called.



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG+1 posts a blind of $3. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 (poster) checks, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">MP1 <font color="purple">(thirddan)</font> raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, thirddan folds, CO calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (5.66 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (7.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

[sthief09]

don't tilt Peter

the river is tough. there were no draws, so if you check and he bets, you're rarely good. if you bet, he could bluff-raise you, which presents another problem, but you won't be bluff-raised that often, so you might not be able to call.

so I agree with it so far, angrily folding to a raise.


I think I read the sparknotes of a book last year that had chapter titles that sound like your post title. is that a reference to a book? Thucydides?

[bisonbison]

I think I read the sparknotes of a book last year that had chapter titles that sound like your post title. is that a reference to a book? Thucydides?

I don't know what specific books it's been used in, but I used to be an English major so I'm sure it came from somewhere.

[J.R.]

The flop play is quite ambititous, but I like it if you can peg your pfr as the type to raise overcards here and no one else is uber caller (I think you almost prefer 2 unduplicated overcards fold rather than incorrectly call 2 getting 12-2 on the flop because of the reverse implied odds and other postflop difficulties of playing this headsup v. 3 or 4 way).

Anway, here's to the best laid plans, simple and easy they may be in theory. I like your turn bet, might be able to checkfold the river if against the pfr who was a rock (pfr 4 or less). But I proabably wouldn't have bet the flop against such a foe and you're not up against the pfr. Aqainst the CO the river bet is a little iffy as no better hand is folding (IMO), even a J or such calling from the flop. I'd need to be against a very aggressive opponent to continue with my hand were I raised on the turn, and an extremely aggro opponent than that to call a river raise had I chose to bet (against whom I would have probably checked the river to induce a bluff from anyway). As a default I would fold to a turn raise against an unknown opponent in 3-6 (if they are overly aggressive they tend to reveal themselves within a few hands).

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I read the sparknotes of a book last year that had chapter titles that sound like your post title. is that a reference to a book? Thucydides?

I don't know what specific books it's been used in, but I used to be an English major so I'm sure it came from somewhere.




[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure it's from Don Quixote.

-McGee

[David BB]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I read the sparknotes of a book last year that had chapter titles that sound like your post title. is that a reference to a book? Thucydides?

I don't know what specific books it's been used in, but I used to be an English major so I'm sure it came from somewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking Winnie the Pooh.

[Derek in NYC]

The flop bet I understand, though I wouldnt do it myself. I do not understand your 4th or 5th street play. Your flop bet has pushed the preflop raiser out and gottten you heads up against the CO, who called the preflop raise. He has position on you. You have no read on him, so maybe that explains his passivity. Your 55 has no draws. By the river you have 3 overcards to you. My own read after the cutoff called the preflop raise and your flop bet is that he has a middle pair himself higher than middle pair on the board (e.g., 88, 99), likely one that dominates you. No way I bet on the river. If you must play, check-call, but I would have check-folded the turn.

[MoreWineII]

Is thirddan really so fearful of your l33t poker skillz that he mucked AK, AQ, KQ here for one small bet?

[lil']

Is thirddan really so fearful of your l33t poker skillz that he mucked AK, AQ, KQ here for one small bet?
That's what I was wondering. He may not have overcards here.

[Trix]

When behind your are going to put 6 small bets in as he will raise flop and you will call down right. When ahead he may raise flop and check behind on the turn, meaning that you win what is in there now plus 2 SBs, which is 11 SBs.

I put him on:
1) AA-99,AJ,KJ ~ 57 = 51%
2) AK,AQ ~ 32 = 28%
3) AT,A9s,KTs ~ 24 = 21%

I think he will take all of the hands in group one to showdown about all the time, will probably raise the hands in group 2 and either check or bet the turn.
Group 3 he just folds on the flop mostly.

This means that about 50% of the time you will be putting 6 bets in and loose(i´m not gonna bother with your 2 outs).

20% he will fold and you will be against UTG, maybe you win 75% of those ?

In the last 28% he will outdraw you about 1/4th of the time, where you will be putting in 6 small if it´s on the turn and 4 if it´s the river.

So what does this come down to ?

51% of the time you loose 6 SBs
5%(1/4 of 21) you will loose 5 (Dont know about this number, but have to start somewhere)
7% You loose ~5 SBs (he will outdraw you like half on turn and river)
15% you will win 3+9,3SBs ( Really dont think you will win as much when you win against UTG as you will loose to him)
21% you win 9,3+3 (not sure about the 3 here, it could easily be less if he checks behind alot on the turn and fold the river, ofc he wont do anything consistently..We will see what it will lead to with 3 and can adjust later)

So the EV of 100 runs: 12,3*15+12,3*21-(51*6+5*5+7*5) =76 or +0.76SB/hand

Some of the number will be off for sure and it might play out differently, but something to think about for sure.

Btw, I dont think thirdan had overcards, but rather the stuff I grouped in number 3 /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[kem]

I like it until the river. You expect him to call with worse hands than yours, or to lay down better hands to your bet? Especially with the read of putting him on overcards, why not just check-call it? You're apparently willing to stick one more bet into the pot in order to win it (since you bet outright), so why not save that 1 bet to check-call with? I doubt the guy is folding a KJo here.. he's raising an Ace. What better hands than yours do you place him on that you think your bet will knock him off? Perhaps I'm weak-tight, but I wouldn't bet out on the river..

[pokerOpus]

Checking on the river screams weakness to me. whats the point of playing the hand aggresively if you are going to wimp out on the river and give the pot to the CO? There is still a chance that the CO will fold to a river bet.

[kem]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking on the river screams weakness to me. whats the point of playing the hand aggresively if you are going to wimp out on the river and give the pot to the CO? There is still a chance that the CO will fold to a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said anything about folding? I said check-call the river. Can you name a hand that beats Bison which the villian would fold to a bet? The only one I can possibly think of is TT, but Bison's read is that the guy has overcards. Can you think of a hand that Bison beats that this guy would call with? If he can't beat a pair of 5's, I can't see him calling here.. And if it screams weakness, isn't that great? Maybe he'll bluff at a pot with a hand that Bison can actually beat. My point is that Bison doesn't mind throwing 1 bet in on the river here to try to win it(that's what he did, right?), but he isn't going to push the guy off a hand that beats him. I'd check it, and call the single bet to see what he's got. By leading out like this, he'll have a very tough decision to make if it's raised back at him.

[sthief09]

you're right