Irieguy
09-21-2004, 03:08 AM
All this recent talk about losing streams (thanks again, rachel) and variance (thanks linus) somehow propelled me into a horrendous negative EV stretch. I've tried everything when "running bad," and I had settled on an Aleo-inspired approach of just playing through it. I.e., if you are making winning decisions, forget about bankroll, losing streams, etc. and just play because it's all +EV when the dust settles.
Well, the recent discussions about how your performance likely deteriorates as bad runs pile on top of each other (see Daliman's tale for penultimate example) got me thinking about a plan to avoid such a collapse in the future. My plan is based on the following lessons:
1. When you have a very bad stretch, your play often deteriorates for multiple psycological and economic reasons.
2. When you move down in limits, your ITM% increases (almost without exception).
3. When you play fewer tables, your results improve (almost without exception)
4. When your ITM% increases, your chances of consecutive OOTM finishes decreases.
So, here's a method of dealing with bad runs that I'm starting to impose on myself-
-When I go 0 for 4 when 4-tabling, I play my next session on only 3 tables.
-If I lose 2 or 3 of those, I move down a limit.
-I remain at the new limit until I either need to move down again for similar reasons, or I return my bankroll to the point it was before I had my 0 for 7 run.
By slowing down and moving down, I increase my ITM%, which decreases the likelihood that I continue to lose consecutive SNGs. Also, since I'm moving down, I minimize the possibility of bankroll-vanishing momentum introducing tentativeness into my play. Thirdly, at lower levels, any minor deficiencies creeping into my game are less likely to be exploited by my opponents. And fourth, it's almost impossible for me to blow something like 50% of my bankroll over a particularly bad run.
This isn't a theory or a fallacious money management scheme... just some food for thought when dealing with angry poker gods. I find it easier if I have a firm plan for when to move down, not just when to move up.
Irieguy
Well, the recent discussions about how your performance likely deteriorates as bad runs pile on top of each other (see Daliman's tale for penultimate example) got me thinking about a plan to avoid such a collapse in the future. My plan is based on the following lessons:
1. When you have a very bad stretch, your play often deteriorates for multiple psycological and economic reasons.
2. When you move down in limits, your ITM% increases (almost without exception).
3. When you play fewer tables, your results improve (almost without exception)
4. When your ITM% increases, your chances of consecutive OOTM finishes decreases.
So, here's a method of dealing with bad runs that I'm starting to impose on myself-
-When I go 0 for 4 when 4-tabling, I play my next session on only 3 tables.
-If I lose 2 or 3 of those, I move down a limit.
-I remain at the new limit until I either need to move down again for similar reasons, or I return my bankroll to the point it was before I had my 0 for 7 run.
By slowing down and moving down, I increase my ITM%, which decreases the likelihood that I continue to lose consecutive SNGs. Also, since I'm moving down, I minimize the possibility of bankroll-vanishing momentum introducing tentativeness into my play. Thirdly, at lower levels, any minor deficiencies creeping into my game are less likely to be exploited by my opponents. And fourth, it's almost impossible for me to blow something like 50% of my bankroll over a particularly bad run.
This isn't a theory or a fallacious money management scheme... just some food for thought when dealing with angry poker gods. I find it easier if I have a firm plan for when to move down, not just when to move up.
Irieguy