Sigh... ultimate scare card vs. flopped set PP $100 NL

[JrJordan]

These types of turn cards make you want to cry. Here's the hand, I'll post the hand and some comments afterward. I looked at the villain's stats after the hand. VERY loose, will play any two. Often times pushes all in like he does in this hand. Once it was with bottom pair, another time it was TPTK with a nut flush draw. To the hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

Hero ($144)
CO ($225.70)
Button ($153.50)
SB ($98)
BB ($82)
UTG ($88)
UTG+1 ($161.25)
MP1 ($132.65)
MP2 ($460)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $4</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls $4, CO folds, Button calls $4, SB folds, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($17) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, Button folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $10.

Turn: ($37) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets $147.25 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $184.25


I've already pinpointed one mistake. The flop is damn coordinated, and my bet is too small for it. Normally I bet 3/4 of the pot, but this much closer to a half bet. It may be nitpicking, but the correct play is around a $14 bet on the flop.

The glorious turn completes possible flush and straight draws. The only issue is, that the villain raised preflo and the key flush card was an A. Albeit it was a minraise, but a hand like AK is no good here with the Ah on the board. Then again, this guy is loose enough where he could raise with something like 79s. KQ is certainly a possibility as well. I'm obviously not getting odds for the boat draw, so can I call this hand?

[Ben]

I definitely would have called.

Wouldn't a flush have tried to trap you at all? If he did have the flush, why would he come crashing down like that?

He could have played several hands that you beat like this. Add to that your boat outs on the last card and I think you have an easy call.

Oh, and yeah. I would have overbet the pot with that flop. Something more like $25.

[Skjonne]

I would have called that. Smells very much like AK.

[Wayfare]

Well, you say he is very LAG and will push several combinations of hands. If he has a made flush, you will fill up 20% of the time and you assume your boat will be good. Versus practically anything else you are a massive favorite.

Do you think the times that he has made a flush minus the times that he hasn't (almost every other hand you are crushing) is going to be +EV?

Let's say he has a made flush 50% of the time. Those times you will lose 80% of the time, so that means you have 40% chance of loss. Other than junk like one high heart (which he may have) you have everything else crushed. I think this situation is about even EV since you are getting 1-1 for your money. If you think the chance he has a flush is lower than 50%, seems like a call.

EDIT: Looked again and saw the obvious straight. I really don't know about this call now...seems like against this guy you will get many chances to stack him. And NO, anyone who reads the preflop action knows this is almost certainly not a limped AK from a known LAG. Please pay attention when you post so that your advice isn't all f'd up.

Also, don't be ridiculous and overbet this flop. You were looking for an overcall, and waiting to make your move on the turn. I do not think this is an "error" so much as a "converted slowplay." As long as you can jack it up on the turn to charge draws the max then I like this bet.

Against any rational (even LAG) player you cannot call this because he is leading into hidden strength. You could easily have a flush, and the only hand that he can TRY to make a reasonable play at the pot with is KhX(maybe T) because he has a redraw to the nuts and he knows you don't have the nuts. I think people who simply say "call" are swimming a bit too deep.

[Skjonne]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone who reads the preflop action knows this is almost certainly not a limped AK from a known LAG. Please pay attention when you post so that your advice isn't all f'd up.


[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't limp. He min-raised. Please pay attention

[JrJordan]

I think his point was that a minraise is basically a limp in these games. I imagine he'd raise more if he had AK. This certainly makes many 2 heart hands and KQ the more likely hands than a limp or big reraise would be. Have to run to class right now, but I'll post results and some responses afterward. Thanks.

[Skjonne]

Fair enough. Then I missed the point. I still think this smells like AxK /images/graemlins/heart.gif though. But if he's that laggy he could have K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQx, I just didn't consider that a raise in EP from even a LAG, but maybe that's where I'm wrong.

I do like the point of handing him this pot to wait for a better chance though, so I could be folding too....now /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Wayfare]

So skjonne, you are saying that, with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Kx, the opponent:

1: Found himself in a min raised pot on the button and just called?

Have you ever seen a LAG do this, ever?

[Kaz The Original]

Wayfare : What are you talking about? Villian was UTG + 1... button folded preflop. Perhaps I misunderstood your post?


I don't really see how anyone calls this. I also don't understand why you bet $10 on the flop. I would bet the pot like I always do, unless I'm setting up to do cheap bluffs later on (then I bet 3/4 of the pot most of the time).

[Skjonne]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($37) A (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $147.25 (All-In), Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
1:So skjonne, you are saying that, with A Kx, the opponent:

1: Found himself in a min raised pot on the button and just called?

[/ QUOTE ]

He wasn't the button. He was EP. But maybe he wouldn't min raise UTG+1 either with AKo. I just don't see him having the nuts and betting so heavily. My experience with LAG's is that they indeed know how to slowplay

[Wayfare]

Yes, you are right of course, the min raiser is UTG+1 and not button.

However, I still can't see anyone playing AK like this, especially not a LAG. I don't know if he has the nuts, but a smart LAG can definately do this with a made flush. I am not saying I know for sure what the LAG has but I am almost positive he doesn't have AK.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and yeah. I would have overbet the pot with that flop. Something more like $25.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the the flop bet is too small, but why overbet (rhetorical question...I know you want to force the obvious draws to call for the wrong price). I think the thing to focus on here is that just like you shouldnt give away information with your standard open-raise, you should try and give away as little information with your flop bets too. Bet the pot here (no more, no less), just as you would do if you had AJ, an overpair, or 8h9h. Make your opponents do the guesswork. Any other flop betting strategy gives away too much information, IMO.

FWIW, on the turn I would have folded. Big overbet here feels like KQ with either the K or Q of hearts, effectively saying "If you've got a flush, take the money, but I've got a strong hand with a redraw". He doesnt mind you folding because theres some chance that his hand may not be best and even when it is best you might have a draw to a better heart (ie he has the Q, you have the K).

Sometimes he'll have AK, true, but in my experience the minraise usually represents a KQ/KJ (or Axs) rather than a AK/AQ hand (unless you have reason to believe this player is different).

The Doc

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
you should try and give away as little information with your flop bets too. Bet the pot here (no more, no less), just as you would do if you had AJ, an overpair, or 8h9h. Make your opponents do the guesswork. Any other flop betting strategy gives away too much information, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Doc given any thought to the full pot bet on co-ordinated and 2/3 pot on unco-ordinated boards approach? I currently bet pot every time I make a flop bet but I'm thinking I could save a couple chips on unco-ordinated boards by betting 2/3.

I guess this all depends on the % of time you have the goods when betting on the flop. Given I auto-bet 90% of the time after raising PF I'm only betting with a made hand around 1/3 of the time on un-coordinated boards so it seems to make sense to reduce the bet size somewhere below pot.

[JrJordan]

Some mixed responses in a few places.

Flop: Yes, this bet was too small. My normal bet is always around 3/4 of the pot. This allows me to charge well for when I hit, as well as minimize losses when I bluff on a missed flop with AK/AQ. Therefore, to keep with this consistency, the bet should've been around $14. However, overbetting the pot is not what I want to do here. $14 is enough to give them awful odds for the draw. A massive overbet to $25 is going to give me the pot right then and there. Personally, I'd like to make some money the 4/5 times the flush/straight doesn't hit on the turn.

Turn: Several responses now and I still don't know what the right answer is here. KQ seems like the most logical hand here, because he doubts I have the flush with my bet on the flop (I doubt he's heard of a semi-bluff for a free card). A push on the turn is also more likely with the straight than a flush, which he might try to checkraise me with. I'll note that his previous all in pushes with other hands were never something like TPTK or two pair. It was usually a made hand or a complete bluff with something along the lines of 3rd pair. His minraise takes out that possibility of 3rd pair. With all else being equal, I usually take the line of "don't lose your stack in an unraised (or in this case a lame minraise) pot". Pot odds were laying me a little over 50-50, to which I was not confident of. Surely player dependent, I think this hand could go either way. In the heat of the moment though, I think this was the right play.

[pdubz]

I was about to say you have to let this one go, but I reread your description of the LAG -- if his two previous all-in plays were with TPTK+FD and BP I'd say a call is middling. I could call, I could fold. The reason I might call is because I'm almost positive I'm ahead. But the reason I'd probably end up folding is idiots who overbet the pot on frequent occasion with anything less than nuts I will call with the nuts, or second nuts. Your hand isn't nuts -- its nowhere close. So just wait ... wait ... wait for it ... here fishy fishy fishy ... WHAM!

Just be careful. LAGs aren't necessarily bad. The whole intent of a LAG is to mess up your play, make you call with weaker and weaker hands. Their play isn't optimal, for the point I made above. You have the option to wait for stronger hands and let them bet for you. You aren't in control of this situation ... you should just let it go and run away to stack this fish another day.

[amoeba]

could it be possible that villain has AJ or AT for 2 pair ?

still I believe that the laydown is good.