New Battleground State poll [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Nepa

09-21-2004, 12:51 AM

Wall Street Jornal online just released their new battleground state poll.

WSJ Battleground (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)

Dynasty

09-21-2004, 05:29 AM

Zogby has been consistently providing conficting data with most other respected polls. It's going to be very interesting, when this election is over, to see how Zogby and his "opponents" deal with their polls compared to the actual results.

Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin are the prime examples where Kerry is polling better with Zogby than with just about any other pollster. Strangely, Bush is polling much bettiner in West Virginia with Zogby.

Most of the red and blue poll #'s are links (but not with Florida).

Arkansas
Zogby: Kerry 46.6-46.5 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)

Nobody but Zogby seems to be polling regularly in Arkansas. Both campaigns seem to have assigned this state to the Bush collum although the Kerry campaign could revisit the state in October.

Florida
Zogby: Kerry 48.1-47.6 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Survey USA: Bush 51-45
Rasmussen: Bush 48-47

Polling in Florida has been erratic due to the hurricanes. But, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll has consistently shown the race neck and neck.

Iowa
Zogby: Kerry 50.3-47.3 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Bush 50 - 44 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040920/dcm054_1.html)
Mason Dixon: Bush 48 - 42 (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9713707.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp)

Iowa is a classic example of how Zogby’s polls are conflicting with other respected polls. How can Zogby have Kerry at +3 while two other crecible pollsters have Bush at +6?

Michigan
Zogby: Kerry 51.9-45.9 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)

Just about everybody has Kerry with a lead just outside the margin of error.

Minnesota
Zogby: Kerry 51.7-42.0 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Mason Dixon: Bush 46-44 (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9714028.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp)

The question here is usually how far Kerry is ahead despite the Mason Dixon poll. Again, Zogby give Kerry much more credit than the others. Recent news reports have both the Kerry and Bush campaigns thinking Minnesota might be in play.

Missouri
Zogby: Bush 51.5-46.1 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)

Bush seems to be in the lead in every poll in Missouri.

Nevada
Zogby: Bush 48.8-46.6 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Mason Dixon: Bush 50-45 (http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699959.htm)

Bush has been winning the polls in the last few weeks. But, the Kerry campaign is still targeting Nevada as one of the states to take out of Bush’s 2000 win column.

New Hampshire
Zogby: Kerry 48.1-44.5 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Rasmussen: Kerry 51-45 (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/New%20Hampshire_Fall%202004.htm)

One poll I saw had Bush ahead but just about every other poll consistently has Kerry up just outside the margin of error. New Hampshire was won by Bush in 2000 so this is a good Kerry pick-up.

New Mexico
Zogby: Kerry 54.3-41.6 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Bush 47-43 (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9713869.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp)
Albuquerque Journal: Bush 45-42 (http://abqjournal.com/elex/218536elex09-05-04.htm)

New Mexico has been a bizarre situation. Zogby has not just been showing Kerry ahead, it’s been showing Kerry WAY AHEAD. However, the most recent non-Zogby polls give the state to Bush. New Mexico was decided by less than 1,000 votes in 2000. Only the Florida recount kept the close race in New Mexico out of the national news.

Ohio
Zogby: Bush 50.1-46.8 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)

Everybody seems to have Bush winning and by a good margin.

Oregon
Zogby: Kerry 53.9-41.9 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Mason Dixon: Bush 47-43 (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9713728.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp)
Kerry 47-45 (http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/)

This has been considered a Kerry state and Zogby has him way ahead. However, the other recent polls usually show Bush somewhat close and Mason Dixon actually has him moving ahead.

Pennsylvania
Zogby: Kerry 50.6-47.5 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Mason Dixon: Kerry 45-44 (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9713733.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp)
Quinnipiac: Bush 46-42 (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=400)

A monster battleground state. Very few polls ever put either candidate far ahead.

Tennessee
Zogby: Bush 51.4-45.9 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)

Welcome to Bush country. Everybody is saying so in the past month.

Washington
Zogby: Kerry 52.8-44.1 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)

Kerry’s got it. If he somehow loses, it won’t matter since almost every other state will be won by Bush as well.

West Virginia
Zogby: Bush 51.2-38.8 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Mason Dixon: Bush 45-44 (http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/special_packages/election2004/polls/9699964.htm)

West Virginia is the one state where Zogby has had Bush far ahead while other polls say it’s a closer race.

Wisconsin
Zogby: Kerry 50.3-47.9 (http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html)
Bush 46-44 (http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/9713738.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp)
Rasmussen: Bush 49-47 (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Wisconsin%20Sept%2014.htm)
CNN/Gallup/USA Today: Bush 52-44 (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-13-wisc.htm)

This has been a wild one. Zogby has had Kerry up in every one of their polls. Yet, the last 8 non-Zogby polls (starting just before the RNC) have Bush winning.

GWB

09-21-2004, 06:13 AM

Here is a graph of Electoral College predictions from 5 different sites (liberal and conservative - although all say they try to be accurate).

http://www.federalreview.com/images/compare.jpg

Nepa

09-21-2004, 11:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Zogby has been consistently providing conficting data with most other respected polls. It's going to be very interesting, when this election is over, to see how Zogby and his "opponents" deal with their polls compared to the actual results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't zogby do the best job last election? I like to go with who's hot.

ChristinaB

09-21-2004, 11:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Didn't zogby do the best job last election? I like to go with who's hot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what Zogby said about his performance in 2000 (detailed poll vs actual numbers at bottom of article) (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=299)

Zogby on Gallup & Battleground 2000 (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=301)

andyfox

09-21-2004, 01:30 PM

Kerry needs to win Pennsylvania and Florida. That's why I thought the Edwards choice was foolhardy: he's of no help wahtsoever in Pennsylvania and of doubtful help in Florida.

Nepa

09-21-2004, 02:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Kerry needs to win Pennsylvania

[/ QUOTE ]

I live here and I don't see a problem. Kerry should win here no problem. I not only live in a battleground state but I also live in a battleground county.

Nepa

09-21-2004, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is what Zogby said about his performance in 2000 (detailed poll vs actual numbers at bottom of article)

[/ QUOTE ]

geez, why even have the election if zogby is this good. lol

If it wasn't for a butterfly ballot he nailed it.

tanda

09-21-2004, 02:47 PM

From realclearpolitics.com:

RCP Average | 9/9 - 9/16 - - 47.0 45.5 2.5 Bush +1.5

Mason-Dixon | 9/14-9/16 624 LV 4.0 44 45 1 Kerry +1
Strategic Vision* | 9/13-9/15 801 LV 3.0 49 44 1 Bush +5
Keystone | 9/8 - 9/15 491 RV 4.4 49 49 - TIE
Quinnipiac | 9/11-9/14 792 LV 3.5 46 42 6 Bush +4
ABC News | 9/9-12 LV 3.5 49 46 2 Bush +3

No problem for Kerry?

Dynasty

09-21-2004, 07:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Zogby has been consistently providing conficting data with most other respected polls. It's going to be very interesting, when this election is over, to see how Zogby and his "opponents" deal with their polls compared to the actual results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't zogby do the best job last election? I like to go with who's hot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Strangely, when the last polls came out, it was CBS News who came closest. But, everybody will understand if you don't want to trust CBS News right now. /images/graemlins/smile.gif CBS News' currently has the national poll at Bush 50 Kerry 41.

All the polls in 2000 were within the margin of error.

My point was that the 2004 polls are often radically far apart on the state level. Zogby is the one who is using a new approach to polling (internet) so I'm wondering if it's giving him data which is either better or worse than the traditional methods.

Dynasty

09-21-2004, 07:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Kerry needs to win Pennsylvania and Florida. That's why I thought the Edwards choice was foolhardy: he's of no help wahtsoever in Pennsylvania and of doubtful help in Florida.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to most news reports, it wasn't so much Kerry's choice to give Edwards the VP slot, it was the concencus desire of the Democratic Party. That's the way Kerry makes decisions, for better or worse.

Dynasty

09-21-2004, 07:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If it wasn't for a butterfly ballot he nailed it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we had a different winner in 2000, we would have had a different controversey.

This RCP Commentary (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-9_21_04_JF.html) had an interesting note in it.

[ QUOTE ]
"By prematurely declaring Gore the winner shortly before the polls had closed in Florida's conservative western Panhandle, the media ended up suppressing the Republican vote," concluded John Lott of the American Enterprise Institute. John McLaughlin & Associates, a Republican polling firm based in Virginia, pegged the loss at 11,500 votes. Its poll, conducted November 15 and 16, showed that the misinformation about poll hours and the premature calling of Florida for Gore dissuaded 28,050 voters from casting ballots; 64 percent of these would have voted for Bush. Even a study commissioned by Democratic strategist Bob Beckel concluded that Bush suffered a net loss of up to 8,000 votes in the western Panhandle as a result of confusion sown by the networks.

[/ QUOTE ]

jaybee_70

09-21-2004, 07:48 PM

Dynasty,

Thanks for sharing these poll comparisons.

ACPlayer

09-21-2004, 08:34 PM

Even a study commissioned by Democratic strategist Bob Beckel concluded that Bush suffered a net loss of up to 8,000 votes in the western Panhandle as a result of confusion sown by the networks.

Only the democrats would be dumb enough to commission a study that produced results that showed them in a losing light. What a bunch of yahoos!

Dynasty

09-22-2004, 06:45 PM

Sometimes the best way to judge whether a candidate is competitive in a state is to watch what they are doing.

Kerry has just cancelled ad buys in four "battleground" states (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,133205,00.html). Money which was supposed to go into ad buys in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisianna, and Missouri have been pulled back. Louisiana and Arizona are no big deal. Bush was always going to win those.

But, Zogby has Kerry ahead in Arkansas according to the link at the top of this thread. It really calls into questioon Zogby's methodology when the Kerry campaignn itself doesn't even think Arkansas is competitive.

Missouri has consistently been in the Bush collumn for the past month. So, it's not too big a surprise that Kerry would pull money out of there.