20+2: Top3, mid stack. Big stack bully raises. Should I have folded?

[AA suited]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">Button (t5460)</font>
SB (t715)
<font color="C00000">HERO (t1825)</font>

Preflop: HERO is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Button raises to t1200</font>, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">HERO raises to t1825 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t625.

Flop: (t3850) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t3850) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t3850) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3850
<font color="green">Main Pot: t3850 (t3850), between Button and HERO.</font>

Big stack's been bullying since the bubble and got caught a couple of times (once was mid-suited connector, other was q7o). 2nd time he got lucky and sucked out thus why the short stack is the short stack.

But should I still have folded since the short stack is about to die?

[zephyr]

looks fine to me.

[Gramps]

Ugh, that's a tough one. I don't think anyone can fault you for making a stand here if the big stack is raising any 2 - there's no guarantee that the SB will be knocked out soon, if you fold and he wins once now you may be on the short stack.

The problem is that with A8o, you can't really expect to be a big favorite against even a junky hand. You have to get lucky that you dominate him or big stack has two cards less than 8 - probably not the case (and you'll be behind/in a coin flip other times).

I think it's close. If you win, you take a slight chip lead on the big stack, giving you a good shot at first. If you fold, it's going to be difficult (but still possible) to come back and win. 10% jump from 3rd to 2nd, 20% jump from 2nd to 1st...

...I don't know that you can be faulted either way here.

[MrTommy]

I would have no problem with pushing this hand. You are probably almost a 2 to 1 favorite and there will be equal in chiplead and a good chance of winning.
If you fold and the small stack gets lucky, he will have as much chips as you do and you might have to gamble with a much worse hand and with much less chance of winning.
Or if he keeps folding you will have to do it to and then you got almost no chance at all to win.

[rachelwxm]

Easy fold.
According to Independent chip model, equity after
folding = 31
all in and win =38.8
Therefore, you neend to be 4:1 favorate to call here. Not even close.

[blendedsuit]

can you explain how you calculated these numbers? Actually, I dont understand any of the post. If someone could also link to a thread about independent chip model I be grateful, thanks.

[CarlSpackler]

If you're confident that you are the best player left at the table, I think folding in this situation is the correct play. The best you can hope for is that the villain has an Ace with a worse kicker, and there's just as good of chance that he has you dominated with an Ace and better kicker. In any other scenario, I don't believe you're a big enough favorite to justify putting all of your money in with A8, and from what you've stated, the villain could have any playable hand at this point.

Even if you eat the small blind on the next hand, the short stack is going to have to make a stand within the next 3 hands, and risk going broke. In the worst case scernario, where the short stack would double up, you have to figure that he's going to be playing extremely tight in an attempt to wait for you to get knocked out, so you basically just have to worry about the big stack when you decide which hand you want to go all-in with, and the odds are you won't be much worse off against him, than you were with the A8.

[rachelwxm]

excellent post
web page (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=952778&amp;Main=952778)

[tallstack]

Have you factored in the .2 equity that Hero has if he calls and loses? I came up with the same ICM numbers as you, but I calculated Hero needing to be a 1.41:1 favorite to break even with the call here.

If the Bully would push with 40% of hands then you would need about ATo+, ATs+ or 77+ (from allenciox's HU rankings). If the bully would push with 67% of hands then you would need about A9o+, A7s+, KJo, KTs+, 66+. If the bully would push with 100% of hands then you would need about A5o+, A3s+, K9o+, K7s+, Q9s+, QJo, JTo, 55+.

Dave S

[rachelwxm]

You are absolutely right, I thought it was bubble situation. Yes, 1.4:1 is correct. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[housenuts]

i would be much more comfortably going all-in if he only doubled the blind, cause then he'd have to call another 1k. obviously he's pot committed and will call your all-in this time though. i think i would call because i'd rather have a chance at 1st, than always take 2nd.

as someone pointed out in another thread...say you play 6 $10 sngs. two 1st, two 2nd, and two 3rd = 180; whereas 3 1st, and 3 3rd = $189

[AA suited]

i caught my 8 but it didnt help because he had 99 /images/graemlins/frown.gif

tallstack said:
"If the Bully would push with 40% of hands then you would need about ATo+, ATs+ or 77+ (from allenciox's HU rankings). If the bully would push with 67% of hands then you would need about A9o+, A7s+, KJo, KTs+, 66+. If the bully would push with 100% of hands then you would need about A5o+, A3s+, K9o+, K7s+, Q9s+, QJo, JTo, 55+."

hm..if bully pushed with top 40% hands, i thought you were still the favorite if you called with ak-a8 offsuit? (1.1:1)

ahh...i see..1.4:1 is what i needed to call. ok, i'll bite..how did you calculate that i needed 1.4:1?

[tallstack]

The odds necessary to call were based on the calc of the ICM (independent chip model). It basically calculates your equity of the prize pool considering everyone's chip counts and the breakdown of the prize money for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. It is not a perfect model, but is much better than looking at chipEV alone.

If you call and lose here then you would get 3rd place or .2 of the prize pool. If you call and win you would have about .388 equity of the prize pool according to the ICM. If you folded rather than called then you would have about .31 equity of the prize pool. Thus, for the call to give you as much prize equity as folding you would have to win about 58.5% of the time you called so that the equity you gain when you win would offset the equity you give up when you lose (or .585*.388+..415*.2=.31). This works out to .585:.415 or about 1.4:1.

[stripsqueez]

too much math for me to actually read this thread - i fold

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[housenuts]

i'm pretty happy with myself. i figured out the math to find out what % of the time you have to win. for those who care to know

it's: x * call win equity + (1 - x)* call lose equity = fold equity

to solve for x in this situation:
x * .388 + (1 - x)*.2 = .31
.388x + .2 -.2x = .31
.188x = .11
x = .11/.188 = .585 = 58.5%

ok, so i figured that out and it's all fine and dandy. but what does that 58.5% mean to you? how do you figure out if you should call or not?

[tallstack]

The hand you need to get a 58.5% win percentage depends on the range of hands that your opponent may have in that situation.

There are two data groups that I know of for analyzing how a given hand stands up against a group of hands. One was by eastbay and it has hand rankings against three different groupings of hands. The other was by allenciox and it has a breakdown of hand rankings against the top 5%, 10%, 15%, 25%, 40%, 67% and 100% of hands. I don't have the links to these right now, but if you do a search you should be able to find them.

Dave S

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds necessary to call were based on the calc of the ICM (independent chip model). It basically calculates your equity of the prize pool considering everyone's chip counts and the breakdown of the prize money for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. It is not a perfect model, but is much better than looking at chipEV alone.

If you call and lose here then you would get 3rd place or .2 of the prize pool. If you call and win you would have about .388 equity of the prize pool according to the ICM. If you folded rather than called then you would have about .31 equity of the prize pool. Thus, for the call to give you as much prize equity as folding you would have to win about 58.5% of the time you called so that the equity you gain when you win would offset the equity you give up when you lose (or .585*.388+..415*.2=.31). This works out to .585:.415 or about 1.4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, 3rd place = 20% of prize pool, or .2

Where did you get .388 from? If i win, i would have 1825 x 2 + 200 (small blind) = 3850 chips. 3850 / 8000 total chips = 48%

[tallstack]

Your fraction of the chips does not work out to your fraction of the prize pool when you are in the money, or close to the money. For example, if you had 90% of the chips in play you still could not have more than 50% of the equity since that is what first place wins. I used the ICM method to determine your chance of placing first second and third based on the chip counts, and then multiplying those probabilities by the prize for each (50%, 30%, 20%) gets you .388 of the prize pool.

Player Chips 1st 2nd 3rd Equity
A 3635 0.454 0.453 0.093 0.382
B 515 0.064 0.113 0.822 0.231
C 3850 0.481 0.434 0.085 0.388

I have a small Excel spreadsheet that I use for the ICM calcs. I only have in the calculations for up to 4 players right now (it gets pretty ugly to debug in Excel above 4 players), but I could send it to you if you want to PM me.

Dave S