88 with the calling bug [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Tosh

09-20-2004, 01:55 PM

MP2 has loosish raising standards, BB is unknown and UTG has a big pair, likely AA.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls...

nolanfan34

09-20-2004, 02:16 PM

Maybe it's a game specific thing, but I don't understand calling two bets PF when you think UTG is capping with AA. And I don't know about calling the flop when you miss your set, and only really have a weak backdoor flush to draw to. That's what, like 3 1/2 outs? Getting 16-1 I guess it's a call, but I certainly don't want to see the BB C/R it behind me.

SomethingClever

09-20-2004, 02:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 has loosish raising standards

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is the case, would a 3-bet with the intent to isolate be out of line before it gets raised behind you?

Rico Suave

09-20-2004, 02:25 PM

Tosh:

Any thought to 3 betting preflop against a "kind of loose" raiser?

The flop call is pretty thin, imo, b/c of the fact that an unknown BB 3-bettor is still yet to act, and a raise is likely.

-Rico

dejableu

09-20-2004, 02:25 PM

Preflop you had to call the last two bets. It was two small bets with 14 already in the pot, meaning your pot odds were the same as your odds of flopping a set. Given the implied odds of taking UTG to the cleaners, there was no question about the call. Once you missed on the flop, however, it's time to say goodbye.

beginner

09-20-2004, 02:27 PM

16SB is not 16 to 1, its 8 to 1. I would not call the flop after missing, and possibly even fold pre-flop.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Any thought to 3 betting preflop against a "kind of loose" raiser?

The flop call is pretty thin, imo, b/c of the fact that an unknown BB 3-bettor is still yet to act, and a raise is likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would only 3 bet if I felt I would get it headsup a very large percentage of the time, I would rather do it with position too.

The BB is not likely to raise, he certainly could, its a consideration, but you can't say its a certainty.

Luv2DriveTT

09-20-2004, 03:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
BB 3-bets, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls

[/ QUOTE ]

Get the hell out of there. You should not call 2 re-raises without super-premium holdings.

As for the flop, you should have check-raised instead of calling to establish premium holdings. If you are re-raised, get out.

TT in da club/images/graemlins/club.gif

Rico Suave

09-20-2004, 03:20 PM

Hey Tosh:

[ QUOTE ]
I would only 3 bet if I felt I would get it headsup a very large percentage of the time, I would rather do it with position too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand. I would 3-bet with TT here, probably 99. 88 is borderline. I assume you cold call here b/c it is too much hand to muck?

[ QUOTE ]
The BB is not likely to raise, he certainly could, its a consideration, but you can't say its a certainty.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not say that it is a certainty that the BB is going to raise; but I did say that it is likely, which is probably an overstatement. But I do not think he has to c/r very often to make calling wrong (given your read of UTG).

-Rico

Tosh

09-20-2004, 03:37 PM

I actually don't even think its that likely, just MO but that is my feeling about this situation.

nolanfan34

09-20-2004, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
16SB is not 16 to 1, its 8 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there's 17 SB's in the pot after UTG bets...and hero has to put in 1 bet to call, that doesn't sound like 8-1 to me. Maybe I just don't get the odds.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 03:57 PM

No you get them fine, Beginner however, does not.

slavic

09-20-2004, 03:59 PM

Tosh -

I'm torn towards 3 betting preflop, but the problem here is you told us very little about UTG. A decent player UTG has told you he has a good to very good holding simply by limping. KQ, AJ possibly AQ even a big pair, pairs that you beat he's not likely to play because there is a loose raiser. So suddenly my isolation raise looks more callish. So do I possibly have a fold? Well I can't really stomach folding 8's preflop, it's a weakness possibly but it's just too much hand unless I know someone has a huge hand. So call and hope the BB plays to help mitigate the price you're having to pay.

Now if you told me UTG is a loose weak player then let's pump it up, kick the BB out, see what UTG wants to do and then lay pressure to MP2 on just about any flop.

Once we call the first 1.5sb calling the next two is a no brainer the pot is correct, and even if it were a little shy it doesn't matter we'll make up bets on a good flop.

The flop call is correct if our /images/graemlins/spade.gif is good. Yes the spade is middling so we are in the pay the max make the min situation, unless we turn a set.

So we call.

74% of the time we loose 1sb and fold the turn
4% of the time we turn a set and make 12BB
21% of the time we capture a card that forces us to call 1BB
On the river:
We make a set 4% of the time and again take 12BB
We make a flush 20% of the time and lose roughly half.
So we lose 1BB 50%(-2BB) and win 9BB 50%
We make nothing 76% of the time and fold.(-1BB)

So it looks like a flop call is worth .23 BB if the BB is going to fold. If the BB doesn't fold the picture is not so rosey but putting in a raise on a 3 outer is going to cost you 3 bets out of position.

My estimate is a little high but I think it illustrates the call should be profitable heads up.

bpb

09-20-2004, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB 3-bets, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls

[/ QUOTE ]

Get the hell out of there. You should not call 2 re-raises without super-premium holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's getting 7:1 by calling the cap. I'll agree that its time for AQo or 89s to get out, but this is a great spot for 88. You have huge implied odds if you hit your set, and you can bail when you miss.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 04:03 PM

Ok just to give more information about UTG.

I know he has a big pair after he limp reraises, but when he just limps, he likely has any pair, suited ace, 2 suited broadway or a couple of big cards. These are the cards he would play UTG, he has some idea of position, but I do not know which he would raise initially. Basically my feeling is though, that he will not lay down preflop here.

Joe Tall

09-20-2004, 04:03 PM

Preflop is fine. Calling, raising or folding 99/88 here is fine, any of the three are good. If I'm sure it's going to be muti-way, I call. If I can get HU, I raise. If it's a super-tight players raise, I fold OR IF UTG is sharp enough to limp-reraise w/premium, I FOLD (however, this is rare).

Flop, calling a BB c/r sucks but taking one off getting 17:1 is good versus such aggressive players.

Peace,
Joe Tall

bpb

09-20-2004, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So we call.

74% of the time we loose 1sb and fold the turn
4% of the time we turn a set and make 12BB
21% of the time we capture a card that forces us to call 1BB
On the river:
We make a set 4% of the time and again take 12BB
We make a flush 20% of the time and lose roughly half.
So we lose 1BB 50%(-2BB) and win 9BB 50%
We make nothing 76% of the time and fold.(-1BB)

So it looks like a flop call is worth .23 BB if the BB is going to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 2 things I don't like about this analysis.

1) The BB is going to raise here some non-trivial amount of time. Even if he calls, there's a chance you'll get jammed on the turn when you hit a spade.

2) When you hit your set and lose to a bigger set, or spade flush, you are going to get dinged for many more bets.

I think its close if you are closing the action. With the BB yet to act, I think folding is correct.

nolanfan34

09-20-2004, 04:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No you get them fine, Beginner however, does not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I should have included on my reply. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Good post BTW, garnering some interesting discussion.

tipperdog

09-20-2004, 04:41 PM

The first pre-flop call is close. You say the MP raiser is loose, but that doesn't matter too much--he's still likely to have two overcards to your pair at worst. Be more likely to call if he's aggressive and will pay you off if you hit a set.

The second pre-flop call (calling when capped) is a no-brainer.

The flop play is also close. You're not getting the right odds to call..but barely. If you turn a set, you'll almost certainly collect a few extra bets. I'd guess the flop decision is pretty close to neutral EV over the long term.

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:13 PM

2 questions:

- what's the probability that UTG has you beat
- what are the chances that BB raises

for #1, I'd say 75%, and for #2 I'd say 75%

this doesn't seem like a good spot to be calling.

preflop looks fine to me.

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:14 PM

that pot has become huge, and you can call for set value alone. this shouldn't even be debated.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 05:15 PM

For 1, I'd say 90% for 2, 10% or less.

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
For 1, I'd say 90% for 2, 10% or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, assuming your estimates are correct, it would seem like an easy call. however, it seems like these estimates are what's up for debate.

let's talk about your 10% figure. we'll assume that UTG has AA (note that I'm not being weak-tight. on the contrary, I'm making it less likely BB check-raises). that means BB can have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and 50% of the time he 3-bets with TT or AQ (suited or off). he'll check-raise with AA, KK, QQ, AQ, AsKs, but not JJ, AK other than AsKs, or TT

Combinations for c/r:
AA- 1
KK- 6
QQ- 3
AQ- 6 (times 50% = 3)
AsKs- 1
-----
he check-raises 14 times

Combinations for call:
AK- 7
JJ- 6
TT- 6 (times 50% = 3)
-----
he doesn't check-raise 16 times

so it would seem like he'll check-raise 14/30, or about 47% of the time

NOTE: even if you say he'll slowplay QQ, it doesn't matter, because turning a set will only hurt you. if he slowplays AA or KK half the time on the flop, then he's still check-raising 11.5/25.5

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:32 PM

feel free to correct me, but this is what I've gotten from this thread so far:

- both of Tosh's preflop calls are fine. even if they aren't optimal, they're close to it, and anything worth being said about them has probably already been said. the crux of the hand is clearly the flop call
- if we knew BB would fold, as slavic has pointed out, Tosh would be correct to call
- if we knew BB would call, it's still right to call
- if we knew BB would check-raise, it's clearly wrong to call

so when this whole hand boils down to is 3 questions:
- How often does Tosh have the best hand? Tosh has said UTG has him beat 90% of the time, and BB has to have him beat a certain percentage too, so we're probably talking about something <5%
- How often will the BB check-raise?
- Should his 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif even be considered as a backdoor out? the 2 players have 4 cards, all of which are larger than 8. that means, (3/4)^4 = 81/256 = 32% that there are no spades out there. your backdoor flush draw is good about 1/3 of the time, which is .5 outs. it should be discounted because there are times you will get squeezed out on the turn, and your implied odds are extremely negative on them.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 05:35 PM

I believe he will check raise AA and QQ. The majority will lead KK and AQ. Also don't forget the fact he could have other random crappy hands that Party players like to 3 bet, the concern over BB is not that great in my mind.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]

- Should his 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif even be considered as a backdoor out?

[/ QUOTE ]

It should be considered but not as a major factor. The main idea of having the /images/graemlins/spade.gif is that if I hit a set on the turn there is no immediate strong redraw against half of my outs if instead I had 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- Should his 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif even be considered as a backdoor out?

[/ QUOTE ]

It should be considered but not as a major factor. The main idea of having the /images/graemlins/spade.gif is that if I hit a set on the turn there is no immediate strong redraw against half of my outs if instead I had 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

right. without the 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif you wouldn't have even posted the hand

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I believe he will check raise AA and QQ. The majority will lead KK and AQ. Also don't forget the fact he could have other random crappy hands that Party players like to 3 bet, the concern over BB is not that great in my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, you know better than me, so I'll ammend it:

Combinations for c/r:
AA- 1
QQ- 3
AsKs- 1
-----
he check-raises 5 times

Combinations for check-call/check-fold:
AK- 7
JJ- 6
TT- 6 (times 50% = 3)
99, 77, AJs, KQs, JTs (20% each) = (6+6+4+4+4)/5 = ~5
-----
he doesn't check-raise 21 times

he's still check-raising almost 20% of the time

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:46 PM

this is my issue with drawing to a weak flush. I played this hand a long while ago, and while I misplayed it, it does show the problems with drawing to outs that you're unsure of.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, BB calls, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB calls, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, CO raises, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB
Main Pot: 16 BB, between CO and BB. > Pot won by BB (16 BB).

Results:
BB has 6c Ad (two pair, aces and sixes).
CO has Ac 5c (two pair, aces and fives).
Outcome: BB wins 16 BB.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 05:49 PM

The opponent was unknown so I know him no better than you, just my opinions of what people do, frankly he may even bet out with AA and AsKs. I just don't see it often, where there is a cap, huge pot and someone getting tricky without a monster. Its not that I ran complicated calculations to decide the factor of him check raising, I just went on instinct.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 05:51 PM

That pot is about half the size, and 10/20 6 max is a LOT more aggressive than 5/10 full as I'm sure you are aware.

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:54 PM

well, the point of my calculations is to show why 10% is probably too small. on the low end, it's something like 20%, and I think 20% is too often to be calling here.

let's say you get 18-1 if he doesn't raise and 0-1 (since it'll be 3-bet and you'll be forced to fold) if he raises. 18*.8 = 14.4-1 true odds

if it's 10% then it's 16.2-1 true odds, which is probably enough.

going backward (stream of consiousness now), you'll collect 3 BB from UTG when you turn a set, and probably something like 1 BB from the BB. so on your 22.5-1 shot, you're immediately collecting 8 SB in implied odds. you only need 14.5-1, so you indeed can call if you estimate you'll be check-raised 20%

do you think all this math is pointless?

sthief09

09-20-2004, 05:55 PM

I generally like to think of the worst possible scenario, and I felt that this was it.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
do you think all this math is pointless?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not, I'm just telling you the hands I would factor into my maths. Its just my opinion that the unknown (i.e. average) player in this game will like to check raise his QQ (or wait to the turn which is no better). AA/AKs will be a mixture of the 2 and other hands that beat me will fire out straight away. So I guess I am saying I am in trouble on 3-5 hand combinations but I also expect a number of other hands - even those that have me beat like 99-JJ and maybe KQ - to just call, which is fine because I still have my 2 outs to jump tp 3rd to 1st. I am not so much underestimating how much BB has me beat, I have already decided I am drawing, just I do not think the check raise is that likely weighed against many hands that do not check raise.

sthief09

09-20-2004, 06:24 PM

well FWIW I agree with you now, since I showed myself that even if he check-raises 20% of the time, you're correct to call.

Tosh

09-20-2004, 06:27 PM

Shall I post upto the next/last decision in the hand now?

FWIW I posted this because a) I felt I played it ok to this point, but b) it was close and I felt sure there would be representation on both sides of the debate.

sthief09

09-20-2004, 06:29 PM

sounds good to me. it seems like the debate has died down a bit

Tosh

09-20-2004, 06:41 PM

3 bet or call; is it even close? My read on UTG was that he didn't play any total junk hands and I didn't consider him to be out of line aggressive.

Also looking at it again, seeing as the 8 is such an innocent looking card, should I bet out on the turn here?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls.

River: (17.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises.

sthief09

09-20-2004, 06:45 PM

It looks like a reasonable player failing to recognize that his aces just got cracked. I 3-bet.

J.R.

09-20-2004, 06:49 PM

It looks like a reasonable player failing to recognize that his aces just got cracked

I question your notion of what a "reasonable' player is, the turn was capped and hero led the river and you still think a reasonable player thinks they are ahead enough to raise with just AA? Its one thing to 3-bet the turn thinking hero was posturing with a draw out of position but after the turn cap, with AA, why raise the river? What worse hands will call the river raise that were strong enough to cap the turn? I am not saying that player's won't play AA in this fashion, but I don't characterize those opponents as reasonable.