Not-so-great Flop

[Kevin J]

Just got in the game a few hands ago. So far, no flops and I know zilch about any of the players. 3 limpers and I raise from the cutoff with KQo. The sb called. bb folded. 5-way.

Flop is KT8 all spades (I don't have a spade).

bb bets, 1 call, next raises.

Would anyone here fold?

[SA125]

I would Kev. You're TP is at best slightly ahead here, maybe way behind. They don't seem to be worried that you might have the A spade to go with your possible AK.

Steve A.

[Kevin J]

Thanks Steve.

I did fold. I realize I'm probably being results orientated, because I believe the biggest obstacle that prevents me from significantly beating these online games is my propensity to get pushed off winners. I wanted some other opinions.

Btw- I folded and the sb and 1st limper called. The turn was an off 7. The sb checked and now the 1st limper comes to life with a bet. The last guy just calls (and here is where I realized I very possibly folded the best hand), and the sb calls.

The river blanks, the sb checks, and the 1st limper bet again. The last guy folded and the sb called. The limper wins it with two red queens!!

I still think I like my fold, but I'm not 100% sure. It's not how often my hand is best, but how often it will FINISH best on the river.. Still, with only the 3 flush and no good straight draw on the flop, I wonder if I gave it up a little too early for a Party 15-30 game.

[astroglide]

i would probably cold-call, raise a non-spade turn, and fold to a threebet

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
i would probably cold-call,

[/ QUOTE ]

And you (no probably about it), do much better than me online.

I had a similar plan... I was going to call the flop bet and raise a blank on the turn. But between the bettor, the caller, and then the raise, I got thrown off. I figured that I didn't want to get overly involved with this board and against multiple opponents.

So this begs the question... How big of a mistake was this fold and how important is it to win this hand (which I would have), instead of being pushed off it? Would you say this particular hand is not that big a deal, or it is definitely a big deal if I ever hope to be a significant winner at Party's 15-30 games? I'd appreciate your input. Thanks.

[steveyz]

I would probably fold if this was played live. Online, I'd follow astroglide's online.

[steveyz]

I think that at the typical party 15/30 tables, calling and raising the turn, or 3-betting the flop are +EV, and it's not that close. If you had KJ, the decision would be much closer. Folding here is giving up too much, IMHO.

[Kevin J]

Thanks. That's what I was looking for. So making these types of folds CAN be disasterous and might be what's preventing better results online.

FWIW- I AM beating the games, just not for that much. Actually, my win rate is pretty pathetic given what I do in live games. This was a over a $400 pot and it's easy to see if I go on to win this hand more than my share of times, I am giving up way too much.

It's just curious to me how this can be a pretty easy and clear fold so often in a live game, but so clearly wrong when playing online. Like I said, all opponents were unkown. Had I known a little more about the players (like the 1st limper could've had 2nd pair that contained two red cards), I certainly wouldn't have folded. Thanks again.

[BubbleBoy]

First, I don't think I would raise with K,Qo in the cutoff after a couple of limpers. I don't think it is that strong a hand to raise with in a multiway pot. Maybe that comes from the fact that K,Qo was a losing hand for me at the PP 15/30 games so I've been more cautious with it.

BubbleBoy

Second, it stinks that this hand came up so early because you don't have any color on your opponents and some people in the PP game love to be real aggressive with their draws. I think you have to peel one of on this flop and see what develops on the turn. But proceed with caution and dump if a spade comes on turn.

[astroglide]

in a vacuum, i don't think the hand is the end of the world but it possibly indicates a general problem. the flop really isn't that scary, and a fourth trump will not show up a majority of the time.

[steveyz]

Well, I don't think this particular fold is disasterous. But I think it is one of those situations that will come up quite often in the Party 15/30 game (i.e. a bet and a raise to you with a good/mediocre hand) and it is NOT such a close decision that making the wrong decision will be negliable to your winrate.

[SA125]

"I realize I'm probably being results orientated, because I believe the biggest obstacle that prevents me from significantly beating these online games is my propensity to get pushed off winners"


Funny you say that. I find the hardest thing about playing online is the swings. They're almost predictable and I'm learning to manage the bad ones.

The challenge of playing good poker isn't anywhere near the challenge of not getting lost in the downward swings. That's because the worst part of the bad runs isn't bad cards. It's the big hands only holding up about 10% of the time during that stretch. That's the killer.

It's one thing to avoid marginal hands. It's another to release big pairs over and over again. When they're not hitting, none of them hit. When you can't rely on AA or KK for at least some pots, it can get to you. JJ being the biggest culprit.

BTW - It's tough to argue with astro and I don't know about the 15-30, but on the Party 10-20, there's more good players than bad. Action like that would be trouble for that K.

Steve A.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
"I realize I'm probably being results orientated, because I believe the biggest obstacle that prevents me from significantly beating these online games is my propensity to get pushed off winners"


Funny you say that. I find the hardest thing about playing online is the swings. They're almost predictable and I'm learning to manage the bad ones.

The challenge of playing good poker isn't anywhere near the challenge of not getting lost in the downward swings. That's because the worst part of the bad runs isn't bad cards. It's the big hands only holding up about 10% of the time during that stretch. That's the killer.

It's one thing to avoid marginal hands. It's another to release big pairs over and over again. When they're not hitting, none of them hit. When you can't rely on AA or KK for at least some pots, it can get to you. JJ being the biggest culprit.

BTW - It's tough to argue with astro and I don't know about the 15-30, but on the Party 10-20, there's more good players than bad. Action like that would be trouble for that K.

[/ QUOTE ]

The dude who cold called with queens before the flop then bet into like 5 opponents when *this* flop came is a good player? The Party 15/30 players might not have the obvious flaws of the loose passives down at the cardroom, but they give way too much action, and that flaw is plenty exploitable. One of the ways you should try and exploit is is by seeing a lot of showdowns when the pot is large and you have a decent hand.

[SA125]

Nate, I think our lines and points got a little crossed here. If I read it right, the guy limped PF with QQ, then called the sb and got raised on the flop, then led the turn. Where does it say in the quote he was a good player? I was talking about players in the 10-20 in general.

Kev didn't say where or what stakes the hand was played. The 15-30 reference I made was from steve's point about the play there. I've also seen it written here plenty of times before that the 10-20 is tighter and more of a grind than the 15-30.

Steve A.

[Senor Choppy]

I made a fold in a similar spot in the 15/30 and the results were the same.

Folding TP excellent kicker on the flop just isn't a profitable play unless the circumstances are extreme. It takes a tight player or a turn raise to get me to lay down something like this.

I think astro's line here is perfect.

[1plus1]

Maybe, knowing zilch about your opponents would be a reason to fold KQo PF. You ended up with a tricky flop to play.
If only you had known that SB likes to bet those scary scary flops, and
QQ was a bit of a dense CS, and
the next limper rams&jams every draw
then astros advice "i would probably cold-call, raise a non-spade turn, and fold to a threebet" would be easy to follow.

Maybe

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
Just got in the game a few hands ago. So far, no flops and I know zilch about any of the players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, you don't do note exporter in PT?

These days I have notes on average of 7 of 9 other players at the 15/30 tables. Sometimes everysingle and occaisionally like 5...

It's something extremely valuable that I think you should look into.

I don't fold on that flop. Screw that. I don't 3 bet either. I cold call and while astros line might be the best, I'm not sure if i'd have the balls to raise the turn. I'd definately bet if checked to. Nah, the more I think about it I'd raise the turn. It's one of those places you can fold to a 3 bet and fold to a river bet when a spade comes because you've shown so much action they're not going to try to run a bluff on you often at all. I call too many rivers and I still would fold this one.

[JasonP530]

Since you raised preflop, I would reraise the turn. You should knock everyone out but the bettor and the raiser, and this will limit the possibilities against you. Also, since you showed so much strength, you will know where you stand if a bad card(spade, other board pairing) comes. It sucks to be reraising when youre almost drawing dead, but I think you have to.

I think this is one of the major differences between the older school players and advice, and the newer school. Books like middle limit holdem(which is ok) and such, would tell you to lay this hand down, but I think you will lose significant profit if you do. FWIW, I wouldnt raise preflop either, and given that action without a preflop raise, I would be much more inclined to fold, since the pot is smaller.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
in a vacuum, i don't think the hand is the end of the world but it possibly indicates a general problem. the flop really isn't that scary, and a fourth trump will not show up a majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh. Then I have discovered another problem of mine. Isn't the flop that scary? We're afraid of another spade, but aren't there quite a few other possible cards we're scared of? And the fact that someone might have us beat already? All this combined, it's still worth a cold-call?

I really need to review my play. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Kevin J]

I think you're right about the newer school of players. Even though I started playing this game 6 years ago, I guess I'm old school and don't do nearly a good enough job adjusting. Thanks.

[Kevin J]

I used to export notes, but now I just use the game time window for this.

What I do now is flag only the bad players with a ".". This way, I can look at a new table and know immediately if it's a good game or not by how many flags I see. The other way, too many people were flagged whether they were a good player or not and I knew nothing about the game until I read through everyone's stats.

[Lawrence Ng]

In a live game, the pre-flop raiser usually gets some respect and most people automatically go into check-calling mode especially if you have TP good kicker and bet the flop. So in a live game, I usually will fold this hand in a loose game if someone is going to CR me on the flop and bet the turn with such a co-ordinated suited board. They know it's hard to push a pre-flop raiser around without something big. Or maybe I just get a lot of respect and they make it obvious when they have a big hand against me.

Online, it's a different story though I find. They love pushing everyone around regardless if you are the pre-flop raiser or not.

[elysium]

hi kevin

the better play here is often reraising, although against certain tight type opponents, you could lay it down. you don't know these opponents, so reraise and betout to driveout on the turn.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to export notes, but now I just use the game time window for this.

What I do now is flag only the bad players with a ".". This way, I can look at a new table and know immediately if it's a good game or not by how many flags I see. The other way, too many people were flagged whether they were a good player or not and I knew nothing about the game until I read through everyone's stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol.

Reading through everyones stats takes about 15 seconds tops. It's not like you have to sit there and deeply analyze there stuff...just look at the top 2 - vpip, pfr. It should be pretty obvious really quick if they're bad.

I suppose if you only play 1 table the gametime window isn't too big of a problem...but when you're playing 4 or more games you can't have something like that open really. It's much much easier to use the notes...which are totally invaluable.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
It's much much easier to use the notes...which are totally invaluable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're overstating the case. I find them only partially invaluable.

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
Reading through everyones stats takes about 15 seconds tops. It's not like you have to sit there and deeply analyze there stuff...just look at the top 2 - vpip, pfr. It should be pretty obvious really quick if they're bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

But these two stats (vpip and pfr), are already in game time window. The thing is, game time updates as often as you download hand histories. Notes only exports when you leave Party, re-export them, and log back on. So game time is also more up to date.

I use game time even when I'm playing 3-4 tables (although I only use one game time window). I find game time even more valuable than you seem to find the exporting notes feature.

[Joe Tall]

Why fold the best hand?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Swiss Cheese]

Kevin J.

Even if you are ahead, which I can believe if your playing Party here, I still think it will be too expensive with too marginal a hand. I muck here 9 out of 10 times and the other time would be player dependent.

Swiss Cheese