Hesh likes this hand [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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sin808

09-20-2004, 06:17 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Looooose table, 2/3 of the table has a VP$IP over 50%. I've been there for about 2 hours. I'm happy with it, it's paying well.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

No likey offsuit call in EP, but the game wanted it. Who am I to deny? No like the raise, but this guy will 3 bet mid pocket pairs, note it and move on.

Flop: (11.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, UTG+1 calls.

w00t! I win! just dodge the flush and I should be home free!

Turn: (7.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, UTG+1 folds.

yay I still win...maybe? probably. bet. no resistance so I think I'm good here.

River: (9.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)

boo! what a horrible thing to see come to destroy my wonderful hand. OTH, it's heads up and I've gotten no resistance so far. Deep breath and bet, or curl up into a ball and check, what say you all?

kslghost

09-20-2004, 07:27 AM

Def a check-call. Scary scary card at the end. If you bet, you are at too much risk to be raised, and it will cost a double to see the beat. If you check call, you will see it for one, or possibly for free. At this point, you don't mind.

afk

09-20-2004, 07:36 AM

eh... really... dump it preflop. edit: whoaaa it's early for me, didn't see that the board double paired. I could still argue for you to bet, but I think I check-call it most of the time.

steveclaz

09-20-2004, 08:59 AM

I'll add to the choir of check, call, lose and cry about the river. The only realistic hands you beat are Qx and JJ or worse, and a bet here won't achieve anything IMO.

easypete

09-20-2004, 09:33 AM

You've seen no resistance, so a value bet would be good? In this case, I think not.

There's a lot of trouble here. You could now be beat by a boat and a flush. From the action, I'm thinking you lost to a flush. You could try to bet and hope the flush folds to you representing a boat, but alas, it's PP .5/1. They will not fold.

If your opponent was holding on to a Q, then they would probably fold to a bet. Also, this same opponent, if checked to, may try to make a bluff at the pot. You call, you get a BB.

So betting here will either win you 0 bets, most of the time, if your opponent holds nothing, or lose you 2 bets (when they raise their boat/flush on the river).

Checking here will either win you 0 bets (if they don't bet), win you 1 bet (if your opponent tries to bluff), or loses you 1 bet if your opponent has a hand.

I'm going for the c/c here. It maximizes your wins while minimizing your losses.

cold_cash

09-20-2004, 12:12 PM

Whether you bet out or check/call you should only be putting one bet in on the river here.

(I just wanted to mention to this to everyone who was arguing against betting by saying you will lose two bets if you get raised.)

sin808

09-21-2004, 08:07 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (9.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB
Main Pot: 9.25 BB, won by Hero.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to Hero.

Results in white below: 
Hero has Jh Tc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.25 BB. 

I'm surprised everyone said check/call here. With the read on MP3 I figured to have most of his holdings beat. The river was probably just as scary to him. I thought this was a pretty clear bet situation. If he raised me it's just as easy to fold this with a clear conscience.
Why bet though? he raised pf, he's hasn't been seen raising suited cards in the last hour he's been there. He will raise things like 44 and 3 bet the likes of 88. if it's not paired or two big cards, he hasn't been raising them (from what I've seen). Since most of the big cards (especially the flush cards) are already on the board, that pretty much rules out him having the flush, and since he can't have a pair of clubs the only thing I'm afraid of is the boat If his cards matched even one of what was on board I'm pretty sure he would've raised me on the flop or turn.
Even if he does have the flush, my betting is probably telling him that I have the boat, so he may even fold a better hand. Again though I really didn't think he had the flush, it just wasn't believable. So I may have been wrong to bet it, but I think automatically assuming I don't have the best hand anymore, without hitting any resistance at all the whole way, is giving too much credit to my opponent (remember this guy is an ATM).
My reasoning could be wrong here though, which is of course why I posted it.

Thx.

Sent

09-21-2004, 09:02 AM

You dont gain anything by betting a river like this though, if he has any holding it would beat you badly and would probably raise you on the river, if not he'd just fold. Is it worth betting out to find out that you are beat when you can just check/call?

-Sent

Peter Harris

09-21-2004, 09:27 AM

this centres round the debate in TOP about betting, checking and calling, checking and folding heads up on the end.

If MP3 was likely to bet their more marginal holdings, check-calling maximises your return where betting out would elicit a fold.

With the board as it is, MP3 wouldn't bet a pair of 8's...as such, leading out on the river is fine, but you HAVE to fold if raised (as cold_cash mentioned).

If you hate folding the river for one more when raised, you shouldn't bet the river. Simple horses for courses.

Me? If MP3 is that mad and their PFRs have detailed specific hands (pairs, not high cards, not suited), then a bet is my line.

Regards,
Pete Harris

frank_iii

09-21-2004, 10:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You dont gain anything by betting a river like this though, if he has any holding it would beat you badly and would probably raise you on the river, if not he'd just fold. Is it worth betting out to find out that you are beat when you can just check/call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. And by checking the river you are inducing a bluff so you might get an extra bet out of him whereas you got nothing here.

Nottom

09-21-2004, 11:42 AM

Fold preflop, bet the river, fold to a raise.

Nottom

09-21-2004, 11:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You dont gain anything by betting a river like this though, if he has any holding it would beat you badly and would probably raise you on the river, if not he'd just fold. Is it worth betting out to find out that you are beat when you can just check/call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. And by checking the river you are inducing a bluff so you might get an extra bet out of him whereas you got nothing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you guys are seriously underestimating how many people will call here and play the board.

frank_iii

09-21-2004, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you guys are seriously underestimating how many people will call here and play the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have massive (maybe even Mike Matusow-sized) cajones then, and I congratulate you! That's a very scary board to bet into. I'd still rather induce a bluff.