What to do with TPTK here?

[parappa]

10+1

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed)

UTG+2 (t800)
Hero (t800)
MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Button (t800)
SB (t800)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to t60, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls t60, Button folds, SB folds, BB raises to t90, UTG calls t90, Hero calls t45, CO calls t45.

Flop: (t415) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB bets t100, UTG raises to t300, Hero ???

[MrFeelNothin]

It is pretty obvious that if you want to play this hand, it is going to be for all your chips. I don't think it is worth it in this situation, you can make the laydown and look for a better spot in the future. The frustrating part is that UTG's flop raise is weird if he really does have you beat, I would think he has AK or KQ. BB could easily have AK or AA. However he could be holding a smaller PP as well. Simply put, with the amount of money going in the pot here, you can't really afford to find out. I fold and wait for the party clowns to knock each other out.

[Jason Strasser]

I'd say against very good opponents this is an easy fold. But this is the first hand of a 10+1, I'd think you'd want to push all-in. Right?
-Jason

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say against very good opponents this is an easy fold. But this is the first hand of a 10+1, I'd think you'd want to push all-in. Right?
-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the idea behind this a kind of hourly rate thing in that I'm in extremely good shape to get ITM if I win, the EV of the play can't be terrible, I haven't invested any time in this game, and there's another one starting immediately? I think that I probably agree with that line.

In the end, of course, I simply pushed without thinking like a muppet and, when I looked at it later, realized it was closer than I had thought.

[PrayingMantis]

In a $10, I'd say you're ahead enough times, and as a big enough favorite, in order to push. BB pf raise can mean anything, and so does his ~1/4 pot bet on the flop (some low PP, AQ, many others). UTG raise could mean KJ, worse Kx, or a flush draw. I think pushing here is not far from the best move, although you are probably beaten some of the time.

[Solitare]

This hand represents just the sort of situation you want to avoid in the early rounds of a SnG. You could be well ahead with TPTK or you could easily be behind trip 7s. Or you could get sucked out by the flush draw that someone has to be playing. I'm with the first response, fold and wait for a clearer opportunity while the fish knock heads.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand represents just the sort of situation you want to avoid in the early rounds of a SnG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I don't believe in avoiding situations that could pretty easily be significant +CEV for me. The fact that it's very early can even make it better, that's if I play a fixed amount of _time_ (per day, say), as opposed to fixed amount of SNGs. (Edit: but in any case, it's good in terms of $$/H).

[ QUOTE ]
You could be well ahead with TPTK or you could easily be behind trip 7s.

[/ QUOTE ]

You could be also behind KK, 44, K7, K4, and 74. The question is how often you'll be behind, and how often you'll be ahead. Saying that you "can be behind" is not enough.

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could get sucked out by the flush draw that someone has to be playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the wrong attitude for poker. It's called "fearing a bad beat", and you lose money if that's how you think.

[ QUOTE ]
fold and wait for a clearer opportunity while the fish knock heads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Waiting for the fish to knock each other is always fun, but if they throw money at your direction (and they will do it quite often. they ARE fish, after all), why not take it? There is something contradictory in this approach to the game. Of course I'll avoid more marginal situations, that I'll probably take in a higher buy-in, but OTOH, the fishiest fish usualy bust early, BECAUSE they make stupid CEV moves. You are givinig up potential increase in ROI by passing on such opportunities.

Only my opinion, of course. In any case, you should play in whichever way that fits you better.

[Solitare]

Mantis, I know what you are saying. Staying with the TPTK is probably +CEV, but I am uncertain whether it is +$$. The question is whether the increase in my ITM/ROI % when the TPTK holds up make up for my ITM/ROI dropping to near 0% the times when my stack gets crippled. This early in the tournament, I'm not sure doubling my stack will increase my ITM/ROI% that much. If I average 40% ITM, will doubling my stack increase that to 45%? 50%? 60%?

I think I have to win this hand significantly over 50% of the time to break even EV wise. 3 people called raises on the flop. On the flop I'm facing a mini-raise (read flush draw?) and a good-sized raise (able to beat TPTK?). Are they fish or aren't they? Beats me, this is the first hand (granted, the betting patterns indicate fish).

I guess my point is that this is pretty murky situation to be gambling my tournament life on for the first hand.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Mantis, I know what you are saying. Staying with the TPTK is probably +CEV, but I am uncertain whether it is +$$.

[/ QUOTE ]

If weaker K's and/or flush draws call you here, than it's no doubt +$$, IMO. Sure you might face a set. But my point is that against these eager-to-bust fish, you'll be ahead significanly more times than not. That's the whole point with fish: they are getting inloved with their TP-marginal kicker, with their draws, and so on. That's my expirience at these buy-ins, at least. I don't believe in giving up significant +CEV spots in order to survive, no matter what buy-in.



[ QUOTE ]
The question is whether the increase in my ITM/ROI % when the TPTK holds up make up for my ITM/ROI dropping to near 0% the times when my stack gets crippled. This early in the tournament, I'm not sure doubling my stack will increase my ITM/ROI% that much. If I average 40% ITM, will doubling my stack increase that to 45%? 50%? 60%?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are thinking too much in terms of surviving. Again, it's not simply about "doubling your stack", but rather about the odds you are getting for trying and doing so. As you phraze the question, it's irrlevant if you're 2:1 favorite, 3:2 or 3:1. I think this is crucial.

[ QUOTE ]
3 people called raises on the flop. On the flop I'm facing a mini-raise (read flush draw?) and a good-sized raise (able to beat TPTK?). Are they fish or aren't they? Beats me, this is the first hand (granted, the betting patterns indicate fish).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we have a different interpretation of the action in the hand. The fact that 3 players called PF mean little to me. BB flop bet (which isn't a mini-bet) could mean many things, and I would not read it as a flush draw from all things, especially since he's the PF raiser (or mini-re-raiser, actually). The good size raise indeed tells me this guy likes his hand, but can still have a big range of hands (at this buy-in) that I'm ahead of. That's how I see it. There are only 2 reasonable hands (for the PF action) that I'm dead against: 77 and 44. Very small chance of AA,KK. Much more often I'm facing KQ,KJ,KT,K9 (even worse K's sometimes), and/or naked flush-draws with tainted aces. That's how I see it.

[Solitare]

Mantis: Don't know if it was bad karma from our discussion, but in the 16 10-1 SnGs I played tonight I got nailed by 3 TPTK situations similar to the one leading this thread:

- During round 1 raise one limper with AK (4xBB) and get CO, BB, and limper to call. Kxx flops and I bet pot and get called by BB that eventually showed trips.
- Another round 1 with AK, bet and get 4 callers, this time Axx fall and I bet pot to lose to trips. (in both cases my bet put someone else all-in so I saw the final cards)
- Round 1 I raise limper with AA and get button, BB, and limper to call. Flop is JTx and bets pot, I raise all-in (my stack was already down from a previous loss) and get called down by button with JT.

I know this is just bad beat venting, I just thought it was ironic and humerous coming off of our discussion. I'm pretty sure the plays were right, especially with you wispering in my ear to play my TPTK and land the fish.

Hate those round 1 fish frenzies!!

[SmileyEH]

I would go all in here. I also had way more 10th place finishes than 9th, 8th or 7th in my 100 20+2's, but I have no problem with busting out immediately and starting another up right away.

Given the action I think you will be ahead enough for going all in to be +cev which in my opinion is almost ALWAYS +$ev.

-SmileyEH

[PrayingMantis]

Solitare,

Keep the good playing and don't let bad-beats get into you. I can't say much about the hands you are talking about, but it seems as if you were simply running into boards that hit your opponents in a really great way. These things happen. It's always important to combine between good and smart aggressivenss, and letting go when there's too much chance you are beaten. Just keep thinking about what you are doing, and don't let short term results influence you too much.

[Tosh]

On the first hand of a SNG, I think any play that is +CEV is also +$EV. There's always another SNG starting and surviving to make more +EV plays later doesn't really apply.