Charging fish to draw

[ddubois]

Villian seems loose, passive. He's showdown weak aces, weak offsuit broadways, and one time he limped with QQ and called down an ace-high flop, etc.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">Hero (t910)</font>
UTG (t505)
UTG+1 (t530)
<font color="C00000">MP1 (t1465)</font>
MP2 (t1910)
CO (t925)
Button (t2150)
SB (t1605)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t50, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t200) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>, MP1 calls t200, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (t600) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?

What's my plan? Since he seems fishy, he could have any two cards higher than 8 - a worse jack, or a pair and OESD, pair and gutshot, a now-made flush, a now-made straight. He have had a better hand on the flop and is slowplaying, but I doubt it.

One thing I do not know how to do with post-flop play is handle the situation where I charged people "too much" to chase, but they chased anyway, and now I don't know if they hit. I don't want to give proper implied odds by paying people off, but I don't want to check-fold any time something that could be bad hits, as alot of people will take checking as a sign of weakness and value bet QJ/JT/As9d here.

[SmileyEH]

At this point your stack is the size of the pot. I really can't see myself folding this hand at all. I guess it comes down to weather a check call (or two) is in order, or an all in on the turn.

A loose passive fish will call an all in on the turn with a lot of worse hands that he won't bet with. Of course a good percentage of the time you will get called with a made straight or flush but I think the fact that this player is loose passive makes a turn push in order for me.

I must reiterate my point that folding at any point is completely out of the question /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

-SmileyEH

[ChrisV]

Man, that turn card hurts. There are two options here.

(1) Simple but effective, just slam your stack in immediately.

(2) You said he was "loose passive", right? If you check to him now, he should check behind or bet tiny without a made flush/straight/two pair/whatever? If he checks behind, you're winning. If he bets small, raise allin. If he bets large, fold.

By playing this way you give away a free card, but you avoid losing your stack when drawing slim or dead.

Against anyone worthy of any respect, moving in is better, but the way a lot of the guys on Party bet I would be more inclined to check and see what develops. I disagree with the other poster that the hand can't be folded. Versus people who give away their hands when they act, you can fold it. Even if you do fold a winner, often they will have had a lot of outs - QJ with the Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif is an example - 15 outs.

[Jason Strasser]

Check.

If he is loose passive then won't the rest of this hand play itself?

IE, wont he bet a hand you are behind, and check a hand you are ahead of?

-Jason

[stripsqueez]

check and fold to any decent size bet

if i had to nominate a bad turn card it would be the 8 of spades - your chook called a big flop bet so if you want to continue to put money into the pot and ignore that you do so at your own peril - you took a shot at this pot when you bet the turn - now you have crap

i dont think pot odds have much to do with this decision - i'm thinking i still have time and chips if i lose this pot

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[ddubois]

I guess I took the worst line possible. Still wanting to charge him if he had QJ/JT or a single spade, I bet 250 on the turn. He called. Then the river came the ugly 7d. I should have check/folded at that point, but felt pot-commited, so I checked and called 300 more, and my tournament was all but over. He had As6s.

It's difficult for me to post-analyze this hand without my thinking being clouded by the outcome. The first thought that comes to mind is: "Push on the flop to charge these chasers the maximum!", but I know that can't be right. If I push into a field of 4, I only get called by AA/KK/QQ/JJ/55/99/AJ, and I've heard so often the mantra: "Don't go broke on top-pair". Somewhere int eh back of my head there is a twoplustwo'er chanting "I want him to call!" - I just don't want him to catch. And more importantly, I want to play well enough that I don't pay him when he does. By my calculations (http://ddubois.bounceme.net/poker/OddsBets.xls), I only need to bet 70 to kill his pot odds to chase one card, but to kill his implied odds (with the asumption that I am going to play poorly and pay off whole stack), I need to bet 420 on that flop! I'm not sure how to interpret this data. If all of this is true, what is the purpose of betting 200? I could accomplish the same thing by beting 125. The side benefit of this is that it keeps the pot small and maybe I'll be more likely to play correctly and release when the spade hits.

[MrFeelNothin]

[ QUOTE ]
folding at any point is completely out of the question

[/ QUOTE ]

He has 15 BBs left, I dont see why folding is not an option. The two main draws just got there on the turn, and top-pair second kicker wasn't exactly a monster to start with. I would check this turn and go from there. I don't see what the villain did that was so fishy, if he knew you would put all your chips in with the J even with the flush out then how could he fold that flop?

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
what is the purpose of betting 200? I could accomplish the same thing by beting 125.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check. You answered it yourself.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see what the villain did that was so fishy, if he knew you would put all your chips in with the J even with the flush out then how could he fold that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess the results prove that's true, but really, how does he know this? In truth, had the flop been Js 5h 2s, I would have been very likely to check-fold the turn (at least, I like to think I would have - I had folded to obvious flush catches earlier this week), because it would be so much easier to squarely put my opponent on a flush draw. It was only my wishful thinking that he was on a straight draw or pair+gutshot that kept me in. And what if the turn wasn't a spade or an ace? On the flop he should consider the effective odds he's getting when another bet comes on the turn, the 75% of the time he misses. I don't know... Would you have called my flop bet?

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what is the purpose of betting 200? I could accomplish the same thing by beting 125.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check. You answered it yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]
But even I don't agree with myself! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif I keep reverting to having this dialog in my head: "The more I charge him to draw incorrectly, the more likely he is to fold. Him folding is good -- I get the 200 chips in the pot right now. 200 chips is almost a quarter of my stack, so the pot seems big enough to be worth winning now. And the more I charge him to draw, the bigger mistake he makes by calling. Whether he pays 200 when the pot is only laying 70, or he folds, either way is good. Him making a 130 mistake is better for me than him making a 55 mistake."

It seems so logical. So why is it wrong to conclude my flop bet is correct, and instead I just need the discipline to lay down the turn? Or am I back to having the results tainting my thinking? It doesn't seem logical to make incorrect bets just so I don't make poor calls later. I can only guess the 125-ish bet is correct, because not only does it make it easier for me to get away from flushes that catch, but also from AJ/55/99/QQ etc. that were better than me on the flop?

[ChrisV]

Betting 200 is fine, you just needed to check the turn. Wanting to still charge a draw at this point is bad thinking. You're in danger of losing your stack and you have a chance to salvage it.

Bet 200, then check the turn and you should be able to get away from the hand. You will take a beating at sng's if you can't ever fold top pair.

btw, it IS correct thinking on the flop, on a drawing board, to modify the amount you bet depending on whether you will get committed on the turn. Betting 200 here I don't believe commits you when the 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif shows up. You should also be thinking about whether your opponent will think he is committed. 200 is a good bet here because it puts him right in the hurt lock on the turn when the spade doesn't come and you move in. Betting only 125 leaves him much more comfortable with the idea of folding the turn.