Too big to fold?? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Sent

09-19-2004, 02:08 PM

I think I really kinda botched hand 3, should've folded the turn no questions, and hand 2 I should've folded on the river. What do you guys think?

1.
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $1. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, CO calls, Button raises, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (8 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds.

Turn: (18 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (22 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 folds, CO raises, Hero folds, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 26 BB

2.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (23 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 32 BB

MP2 in hand 2 was a moron.

3.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO 3-bets, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (19 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button calls, MP1 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 22 BB

-Sent

afk

09-19-2004, 04:23 PM

Alright I'll take a stab at these.

Hand one I think is fine. I suppose the only hang up would be playin 98o, though you're getting huge odds, so give'r.

Hand two: Ugh. This hand sucks, but I think I still would have called the river down. Though I'd like to see other opinions.

Hand 3: I don't see why you said you should fold the turn. You're getting 18:1 for 3 outs to the nuts, and one more out to the nut straight (fear not the runner runner flush!), not to mention you're closing the action.

afk

09-19-2004, 05:05 PM

actually I just checked SSH on your hand one preflop call. It gives 98o the kybosh.

easypete

09-19-2004, 06:19 PM

Hand 1: Out of position, but good odds... if everyone calls the button raise, then you're getting 18:1 odds calling it. I would call pf. You will win better than 5% of the time. UTG 3-bet puts a wrinkle into it. On the flop, I like betting into UTG (pf 3-bettor). UTG should have raised here and forced the field to call 2 cold. He didn't.. oh well. CO raises, the pots laying you 32:1... heck... i'd take that for top pair.. and 5 outs to improve. Easy call down. BTW... what happened to the button on the flop... first raise pf and then bam!!! gone. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Hand 2:
I would have 3-bet the turn.

Hand 3:
Just call the flop... With the CO being the pfr and MP1 betting into you, I'm not raising the gutshot + overcards. You have 4 outs to the nuts + 3 outs for overcards. Raising into this big a field is +EV if everyone calls. With an aggressive CO behind you, i think you need to call, assuming he will raise behind... don't want to force others to call 3 cold. Other than that... call the river. You are closing action and only have to be right 1 in 22 times.

atrifix

09-20-2004, 06:15 AM

Not sure why you're thinking about folding the turn in hand 3. The pot is laying you 18:1 and you have 3 outs to the absolute nuts and another to the nut straight, so you should obviously call.

The rest seems okay. In hand 2, if UTG was a tight player you probably should have folded for 2 bets on the river.

kslghost

09-20-2004, 07:59 AM

Hrm, you need some practice.

98os... fold it to the raise. You are getting good odds, but you may be up against too much. The problem with this is that its offsuit. While its a fractional change in the EV, it is critical in a mutliway pot. The only real strong hand you can make is a straight.

Secondly, the flop bet is also questionable. While you called for good odds, your bet gives good odds for everyone else too. Your top pair of 9s is unlikely to stay top pair (even though it does in this case). At this point, your only possible improvement is another 9 or possibly an 8. You could be called by an overpair, two overcards, a gutshot, and they would all be correct (and they could be beating you with a monster hand). I might consider a check-raise, but I may throw this hand away (if I had continued with it).

Hand 2:
There is no real situation to throw this away. A set is very difficult to pick up for other players. However, I would have 3 betted this on the turn. On the river, I would continue to call. There's no way around this, unless you are quite sure that the other player could have been holding AK or K9.

The third hand - I would hesitate to raise KQos. But you should see the river card on this. I might even call the final bet. (doesn't make sense for CO to 3-bet a jack). However, I understand why you folded, but you only had to be right less than 5% of the time (as others have said).

easypete

09-20-2004, 09:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
98os... fold it to the raise. You are getting good odds, but you may be up against too much. The problem with this is that its offsuit. While its a fractional change in the EV, it is critical in a mutliway pot. The only real strong hand you can make is a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

While it's really not very wrong to fold here, there are some flaws in this that need to be pointed out.

1. There is a huge difference between suited and non-suited in the EV. HUGE. While the win% may be fractionally better, the $ won is tremendously better. 98o wins 12.3% vs 7 opponents. 98s is 15.9% vs 7 opponents. This means you will win 3.6% more pots w/ it. In 100 hands played each, you may loose an additional 3.6BB w/ offsuited... you will win 3.6 more pots (>>1BB). This is HUGE.

2. You will win 98o 12.3% of the time. That's 7.1:1. And you fold to while getting 18:1. You may need to rethink this one. (Maybe I may need to rethink this one. I'm a fairly tight player, but I make this call every day and twice on sunday).

afk

09-20-2004, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The third hand - I would hesitate to raise KQos.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQo is a standard, easy raise here.