Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Probability Question

[mochano]

Party poker is offering a bad beat jackpot on some of it's tables, to get this you basically need two players in a texas hold'em hand on at least 4 of a kind 8's.
http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html

Can anyone tell me (preferably with working) what the chance is of having this in a hand for a table of 10 players, and supposing that nobody folds?

Thanks,
Mochano

[Dov]

I don't know the odds offhand and I'm too lazy to calculate it right now, but I know that nobody is going to fold quads! Sorry for the short answer. Back to my tourney now...

[pokerjo22]

I think he's talking about preflop nobody folds, say pocket deuces.

[DBowling]

And also assuming that nobody folds before hitting runner runner (ive done this at a live game with my pocket deuces folded on the flop!)
If anyone tries to figure this out, dont forget both hole cards need to be used, so if not pocket pair, kicker has to play.

[Dov]

Oops. Sorry guys. I guess that's what happens when you stay up all night reading and posting...

[o0mr_bill0o]

i feel like the easiest way to more accurately assess the probability here would be to simply keep track of how big the jackpots are when they are hit. the rake for the jackpot is uniform for every hand and every limit, so you could pretty easily deduce from that the number of hands between jackpots, and after a bunch of them come up with a decently accurate assessment of the average. then you could easily come in and figure out at which point playing in the jackpot games is +EV. I'm not playing in 2/4 yet, so i'm not gonna bother working that out till I am, but more power to ya if you give it a try.

PS. you'll probably have to do a bit more math to factor in the fact that only 1/10 of the time it's hit at your table you're going to be the one hitting it. another 1/10 you'll be the winner of the hand taking 1/4 of the jackpot, and the other 8/10 of the time you'll be taking down your share of 1/4.

[Dov]

BTW, If you want the actual probability of the event, post this in the probability forum. The math guys can do this in their sleep.

[solucky]

not worth to play them. Dont forget that u complete pay the jackpot with extra-rakes, but if u hit the Jackpot party dont payout 100%. So you are not raped only with the "normal" rakes u pay any hand a extra-rake. Only a extreme high jackpot is worth to play..and by the way i have now around 200 000 hands and never lost 4 of a kind now:)

[CaptObvious]

I believe the odds of getting Quads are somewhere around 1 in 4,600...