Ram and Jam...and miss. So bet the river?

[Bigdaddydvo]

Semi LAG small stakes party...

Dvo's in BB w/A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif

MP1 calls, MP2 raises, SB calls, Dvo 3-bets, MP1 calls, MP2 Caps, SB calls, Dvo calls, MP1 calls.

4 players to the flop.

2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, Dvo bets, MP1 calls, MP2-raises, SB folds, Dvo 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls

Turn J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Dvo bets, MP2 calls

River: 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Dvo bets, MP2 calls

Final Pot: 12 big juicy bets

I figure the I need to get him to fold only 1/11 times (or about 9% for the bet to be profitable) I figured him for a mid to high pair that he went into check-call mode with. Still, is 9% worth it?

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure the I need to get him to fold only 1/11 times (or about 9% for the bet to be profitable) I figured him for a mid to high pair that he went into check-call mode with. Still, is 9% worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]

A mid to high pair that called the turn will fold this river about 0% of the time. If you think he'd play something like AK/AQ this way you can check/call the river, otherwise check/fold. A bet here has no value, IMO.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

your hand beats nothing but a missed draw and since you hold the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif you can be pretty sure that he won't call with anything you can beat.

the only thing betting really accomplishes then is not get bluffed about by a busted draw, though it's unlikely that he'd bet this river given the action with just that.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I figure the I need to get him to fold only 1/11 times (or about 9% for the bet to be profitable) I figured him for a mid to high pair that he went into check-call mode with. Still, is 9% worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]

A mid to high pair that called the turn will fold this river about 0% of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

...especially since he raised/capped PF and then raised the flop.