Pot...committed?

[Garland]

Location: Empire Poker
Tournament: $10+1 NL tournament ($5000 Guarantee)
Players: 324 players (so it's a nice overlay)

Top 40 pays.

I'm among the last 44 players and on the short stack (T3200) with blinds at T200-T400. I don't particularily care about busting out in 44th (out of the money) or 11th. I'm doing my best to get to the top 10, where the money is heavily weighted.

I finally get my big break, red KK in LP after an UTG limper. With other hands (smaller pairs, decent As, KQ) I'd normally just go all-in and hope everyone folds, but this one I decided to just raise to T1400 hoping I don't blow him away, leaving me with T1800 that I fully intend to push on any flop...that is until that ugly A appears and the opponent pushes first.

What would you do given my goals and the pot situation?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB (t14734)
UTG (t5458)
<font color="C00000">UTG+1 (t14739)</font>
MP1 (t8368)
MP2 (t20230)
<font color="C00000">Garland (t3200)</font>
CO (t9923)
Button (t2814)
SB (t5395)

Preflop: Garland is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t400, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Garland raises to t1400</font>, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t1000.

Flop: (t3400) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets t2300</font>, Garland ????

All comments appreciated.

Garland

[silversurfer]

it's possible that he is gambling as well with a qq or jj but i doubt it. more likely is ace(whatever)or even a set of nines.

i know you don't mind busting out on the bubble but i wouldn't do it here.

[Garland]

Hi silversurfer,

Note that it's the late, late stages of the tournament, and if UTG had a hand like QQ, JJ or 99, he'd raise up front for sure.

My only question is if he has an A, and am I really pot committed for my last T1800.

Garland

[durron597]

Let's put it this way. You say all you care about is making it to the final table; you are getting 4800:1400 or about 3.5:1 on the call. You need 9:1 to call if he has an ace, but there's a possibility he's bluffing; you have to judge if he's bluffing at least 60% of the time to make the call. You played with him for awhile, I didn't, so I can't judge /images/graemlins/grin.gif

This is why I would just push preflop. I always try to play so that I minimize the number of difficult decisions I have to make (a trick out of strassa2's box); raising half my stack with KK so that I have to make a tough decision when an A flops is exactly the sort of thing I want to avoid.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
raising half my stack with KK so that I have to make a tough decision when an A flops is exactly the sort of thing I want to avoid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi durron597,

Actually, I didn't raise all-in preflop with the explicit intent on getting at least one caller. KK is a monster, and anyone calling the T1400 raise (except for AA) is making a big, big mistake. I did not want to make an easy fold for my UTG lamb-like friend, and if an A appears on the board and he actually has one, so be it. An A only appears about 1 in 6 times, a chance I'm willing to take. The only question is if I should let my hand go when he pushed me all-in with an A on board and if T1800 left with T200-T400 blinds is good enough to continue. In my mind, I was already pot committed with my KK after the UTG call, but I wanted to hear what others had to say.

Thanks for your comments,

Garland

[Instinct]

Since you played it this way preflop ( I would have pushed )
I think laying down on flop is the best play. What could he have to make his all in bet. Most likely an ace, possibly a set, and possibly a bluff or lower pair.

You still have some chips left to play ... I say fold here on flop.

[ajizzle]

no. not pot commited.
the likelyhood of him having an A is too high to risk your tourney. chip and a chair is more important.
Here are some things you have to take into account:

He also has to worry about you having an A, and most likely a GOOD ace, since you raised PF.
His tournament is also on the line, and most players don't go in with the same mindset you do, of finishing in the big money or broke. He is four spots from the money, and risking his entire stack, looks like he has a hand.
You play better than the rest of the players, even when dealing with the simplest of things: what hands to push all-in with when on a short stack. Most-likely, you will get called by a large stack with a mediocre hand, and double up to where you were before.

Just as a side note, I was in a similar situation a few days ago, where i tried this move with AA late in a tourney, and on a short stack. BB and an EP limper called my raise for half my stack, then went all-in and called respectively on a TT8 flop. My only choice was to fold. Very next hand, I picked up QQ and doubled back up. I went on to the final table.

Ajizzle

[fnurt]

Here's the way you think about this. If you fold then you will have T1800. If you call and win you will have T7000.

Let's assume you fold. What are your chances of getting from T1800 to T7000 before going broke? Given that T1800 is less than 5xBB, your chances are certainly not higher than 25% (the mathematical chance of winning two coin flips and quadrupling). I think your chances are probably lower, since with such a short stack you'll be lucky to get two coinflips before the blinds eat you up. But let's say it's 25% to be generous.

So if you have more than a 25% chance of getting to T7000 by calling this bet, a call is correct. Considering you do win a few hands even if he has an ace, you need to be about 80% confident he has an ace before you can fold. (You will win 9% of the 80% he has an ace, and let's say 80% of the 20% he doesn't - 7.2% + 16% = 23.2%)

Personally, considering his stack is much bigger than yours, I could not be anywhere near 80% confident he has an ace. Mathematically speaking, your best chance to get to our benchmark of T7000 is to call.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
His tournament is also on the line

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi ajizzle,

Note that this particular opponent's tournament is not on the line. He has a big stack T14739 and can afford to gamble. I took that into consideration when making my decision.

Thanks for your comments,

Garland

[Garland]

Regards to preflop:

I think that not pushing is indeed the correct decision because big hands need action. I wouldn't maximize my results if I pushed because I'm pretty sure everyone would fold, and I didn't get as much for my KK. To be sure, I didn't make it a cheap raise, and I felt my amount accomplished its task.

The only question is whether or not my opponents are savvy enough to realize that I raised about half my stack when I normally go all-in in this spot and can snuff out the "suck-in raise". I deemed the Empire opponents on this table not that bright.

I decided to call. There is a chance my opponent only has a 9 and was willing to call my bet anyways. I also felt that my chance to come back from T1800 with T200-T400 blinds was poor, especially with the blinds escalating fast. My opponent did indeed have an A (A2o) and improved to two pair, and then a full house. I did not improve and was busted right there. Oh well.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB (t14734)
UTG (t5458)
<font color="C00000">UTG+1 (t14739)</font>
MP1 (t8368)
MP2 (t20230)
<font color="C00000">Garland (t3200)</font>
CO (t9923)
Button (t2814)
SB (t5395)

Preflop: Garland is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t400, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Garland raises to t1400</font>, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls t1000.

Flop: (t3400) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets t2300</font>, Garland calls t1800 (All-In).

Turn: (t7500) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t7500) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t7500
<font color="green">Main Pot: t7000 (t7000), between UTG+1 and Garland.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by UTG+1 (t7000).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: t500 (t500), returned to UTG+1.</font>

UTG+1 has Ad 2h (full house, aces full of twos).
Garland has Kd Kh (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins t7500.

Thanks for everyone's comments.

Garland

[durron597]

fnurt: You got totally different numbers than me. Clearly one of us is wrong; most likely it is me. Can you tell me what I did?

[CheckRaise]

A2o, dumbass he probably would have called an all-in bet anyways

[durron597]

Despite fnurt's different numbers, I still believe that you have to think he doesn't have that ace 60% of the time to call. I think he has it more than that, so I would fold.

Let's say we know for sure he has a weak ace, so you will fold whenever an ace flops. Let's say he always calls your small raise and will call a push x% of the time. Let's say he also goes allin whenever he hits a pair (let's assume that he will never hit a straight or a flush or a draw to either or trips), but that you will fold when there's an ace on the board.

Thus EV(push) = (1000)(1-x) + (3800)(x)(.70) + (-3200)(x)(.30) = 1000 + 700x
EV(small raise) = fold equity + non-ace pair (you are 3:1 favorite) + ace pair = 2000(.66) + (3800)(.16)(.75) + (-3200)(.16)(.25) + (-1400)(.16) = 1333 + 456 - 128 - 224 = 1437

So if you know he has a weak ace, you should make a small raise if he folds to your allin at least 62% or more of the time. Of course he could have a PP and there are a lot more situations that I haven't factored in (the people acting behind you, him making a straight or a flush, etc). I think what pushes the "push" over the top is the equity you get from the times he has a PP like 99 and calls.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
fnurt: You got totally different numbers than me. Clearly one of us is wrong; most likely it is me. Can you tell me what I did?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not quite following your calculations. If he's getting 3.5:1 on the call, doesn't he have to win only 20-25% of the time to make it a good call? Why does it need to be a bluff 60% of the time?

I think if you do the calculations my way, that is, which way gets you to T7000 more often, it probably comes out better anyway, because it figures in tournament EV automatically.

[GrinningBuddha]

You wanted action with your KK, you got it. Bigger risk for a bigger reward. Personally, if I see a chance to increase my stack by 33% risk-free, I'm doing it.

On the flop you must call. Yes, you are pot-committed as soon as you raise to 1400.