Your criticism, please PP 15/30

[Sully]

Ten hands into the table..no reads

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.33 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls (in pain), UTG calls.

River: (11.33 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 11.33 BB

My main question is the turn...do I have to fold there? Results to follow.

[nummerfire]

I think its weird that you call the turn and then do not bet the river.

Kim

[Senor Choppy]

Middle pair + a broadway draw is one of the toughest reoccuring turn decisions in holdem IMO.

I guess the best way to look at this is by breaking it down by possibly hands for UTG+1 along with number of outs you have against them. I'm going to assume UTG folded for simplicity, but the fact that he's probably holding some of your outs definitely doesn't help.

KJ: 3 to chop so 1.5
AA, TT, 22, AQ: 3
AK: 2 + 3 to chop, so 3.5
AJ, AT, A2: 5
QT: 7
A9-A3: 9

Without weighting them it looks like you'll have around 5 on average, but expecting him to have A9-A3 here is reaching a bit.

Here's what I put UTG+1 on with quick percentages for each before seeing the river action multiplied by the number of outs you have against it:

KJ 25% * 1.5 = .375
AK 2% * 3.5 = .07
AA, TT, 22, or AQ 25% * 3 = .75
AJ, AT, or A2 25% * 5 = 1.25
QT 15% * 7 = 1.05
random aces 8% * 9 = .72
total outs = 4.215

Whatever card you hit on the river is going to stop UTG+1 from betting again a majority of the time, and the times he loses 2 bets on the end are probably balanced by the times you lose 1 more after improving and still being 2nd best along with the times he folds for 1 bet. So I think assuming you'll make 1 more bet on the river is fair.

Given all of this, a little over 4 outs with 9.33 BB effectively in the pot, along with the fact that there's another player who could also hold a K, which would seriously hurt your odds, it all seems to add up to a fold (which isn't what I was expecting). If anyone finds any math errors above please point them out. It's late, I'm tired, and it's not normally my thing to begin with.

[bicyclekick]

How bout check the turn?

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
How bout check the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. doubt i would do it in the heat of battle though. then again, my game is improving. maybe i would.

[steveyz]

I'd probably bet the river when it gets checked to you. A lone ace will call.

[steveyz]

Checking the turn seems good.

[Nightwish]

There's something to be said for checking the turn, but I still don't like it. I think a turn bet is fine because a check-raise here will be quite rare and all sorts of hands will call. I haven't looked at Choppy's math closely, but my gut instinct is to call the turn raise.

After that, I would likely bet the river when they all check to you and expect UTG to fold and UTG+1 to call with his A.

[Sully]

[ QUOTE ]
How bout check the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is that way to go, although it's tough to throw away to one bet, so I suspect I'm probably going to end up paying the same amount to see the river...not sure that there's any perfect way out of this one.

Result:

UTG+1 has TdTs for the pot.

Thanks for the comments, and especially the work, Choppy. I'm glad to hear that I'm not the only one who has a tough time with this type of hand.