Does this move mean AA?

[DOMIT]

I folded a group I to a pre flop reraise today and want to get the group's oppinion on whether the way the betting transpired that my opponent can only have AA in this spot:

Party 25Max NL.. .25/.50 blinds
Folded to mid position,
MP2 raise-opens to $2,
Hero (MP3) raises $5 to make it $7 to go
Villian (on button if I recall correctly) raises to $25 straight

The $25 straight covered both me and MP2.. i.e., if we're to call, we're having to call all-in.

The only hand that I could put him on was AA. I don't see him doing this w/ KK, or other.

Let me know what you think.

[ChipLeader]

I actually think hes bettign KK, QQ, or AKs, in that order of likeliness. On PP, people preflop bet a variety of hands, but most people dont play AA as aggressively as KK because KK needs more protection, as does QQ, and AKs. Since most people cant accept that any of those hands are beaten and would rather lose all their money than ever fold them preflop, they just push. What exactly were you betting? AA is possible still, and if you had any sort of read on the player it would make a world of difference, but if he is truly a blank i lump him into the "learned how to play watching ESPN" category and play according to what im holding.

[AncientPC]

I've seen a whole slew of cards putting people all in pre flop that are really bad.

However, I would still probably fold everything but AA-QQ. I'm not a fan of coin flips.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen a whole slew of cards putting people all in pre flop that are really bad.

However, I would still probably fold everything but AA-QQ. I'm not a fan of coin flips.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? This isn't a tournament.
If someone told me: We're going to flip coins, but you get 1.01:1 on your money everytime, you know what? I'd start to love coinflips, because I'd be doing alot of them. If a play is Pos Ev, you should do it. If you "know," for example, an opponent has 22, and you have JTs, a 54/46 advantage,

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=17773
pokenum -h 2c 2s - jh th
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2s 2c 775969 45.32 912248 53.28 24087 1.41 0.460
Jh Th 912248 53.28 775969 45.32 24087 1.41 0.540


and they bet 100$ from small blind and I'm in the big blind, I call instantly, even if there isn't any money in the pot. I'm getting 1:1 on a 54:46 play. It's pos EV.

This is a hypothetical situation, but "avoiding coinflips" is a phrase associated with tournament play, not cash game play. It's only acceptable when you're playing on a short bankroll, and thus your fear of busting out is a bigger concern then giving up a small edge.

[ChipLeader]

That is, IF you can put them with 100% certainty on a specific hand. The problem is, this situation puts the player in a situation where unless the oppoenent is bluffing (doubtful), the best he can hope for is to be in a coinflip. Obviously if you could see each others hands youd take every coinflip youre given.

[AncientPC]

That's if I'm rather certain they're playing JJ or below, then I'd be more liberal with my calling. However, since poster has no reads on the guy I'm willing to fold this hand (poster doesn't even say what hole cards he has) and wait for better cards.

All in maniacs get busted quick enough, it's just a matter of you getting the cards.

[DOMIT]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen a whole slew of cards putting people all in pre flop that are really bad.

However, I would still probably fold everything but AA-QQ. I'm not a fan of coin flips.

[/ QUOTE ]

As you stated in another "poster did not tell his hand". The above was what I was looking for. What you would call with given the above situation.

Personally, I guess I give people too much credit, as I would, facing this raise and reraise, would only make this move with AA. The initial raise to $2 preflop is a standard on party's 25NL with blinds of .25/.50. My reraise to $7 should have signaled a high pocket pair. The only hand that made sense to me to put someone all-in was AA. I can't see AK (suited or not) doing this. Then again, this is Party, and one of the reasons that I posted this.

Only read from the guy that I had was that he didn't seem to do anything stupid, hadn't seen a raise like that from him. But then I have started playing 4 tables at once and have had increased variance and have since stopped. I need to be able to watch my opponents and therefore have been sticking to 2 tables.

Thanks for the replies. I didn't say what hand I folded, as again I wanted to see what people would call with. Obviously, if I had AA, I was calling all-in. However, as Chris Daddy Cool put it, I know that you'd all call me a "weak-tight mofo" for folding my hand, so there was no need to hear what I already knew. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[jjb108]

I believe the old player dependent will apply here as well. I recently watched a similar move 2 times where the villian pushed with ATs and 77.

If you have no read, I'm guessing any PP J's or better and AK.