Sleepless on the bubble....

[NoSkills]

This was a partypoker $50 SNG and we were down to 4 people - on the bubble. Blinds 150/300, chips pre blind:

UTG: 3000 (me)
button: 2000
SB: 2000
BB: 3000

dealt 99 I made it 1000
button and SB folds
BB raises all in.

I had no reads as I can't watch the whole tourno at work without risking 'le boss' wrath. I called and was beaten by TT.

It seems to me it must be a mistake to call. What am I ahead against? 2 overcards its 50/50 and in a bubble situ a must fold. Higher pair dead. Only really in front of possibly 77 and 88. But what can I call with in this position? AA KK QQ definitely AK JJ maybe. Is everything else a fold?

But if this is the case viewed from the big blind the scenario is quite different: a raise from any position with these relative chipstacks, can I go over the top with anything? If he needs AA KK QQ or AK to call, relative to the number of raising hands he must fold is it not correct to raise all in on the bubble with anything?

If this is the case is all in raise with 99 UTG the only play? Does TT fold in the BB here?

Oh what a tangled web we weave...

Please end my sleepless night - enlight me so I can sleep again (dreaming of straight flushes.)

[Irieguy]

If you push UTG here, you will win the blinds most of the time (forget about BB having 10s for a minute); when you get called you will win some of the time. Some of the time, a hand that would have gone over the top of you with a raise will fold instead to your push.

In light of the chip situation, the BB's push is actually correct with a larger range of hands than you might think. So the price you have preflop is going to justify a call. I would say the key to this hand is the small but signficant number of hands with which he would fold to a push, but push against a raise.

This all comes back to the "10xBB" rule so often discussed. This is another example of why just pushing preflop is probably the most +EV play available.

Irieguy

[ChrisV]

Perhaps. I think pushing preflop is OK. I think raising a small amount (say making it 750) and folding to a reraise is good too. That's an exploitable strategy no doubt. Luckily most of your opponents will not exploit it.

If it were 200/400 blinds it would be a clear push UTG.