Interesting 86s hand

[ddubois]

What do you think of this line? If you don't like it, which line do you prefer? With this flop and the massive number of outs I have, "fold" better not be in your line. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">Button (t2975)</font>
<font color="C00000">Hero (t1045)</font>
BB (t715)
UTG (t1280)
MP1 (t1125)
MP2 (t2320)
CO (t540)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t50, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t50, Button calls t50, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t250) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, BB folds, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button calls t150.

Turn: (t550) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets t275</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t845 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t570.

River: (t2240) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2240
<font color="green">Main Pot: t2240 (t2240), between Button and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (t2240).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero has 8s 6s (flush, jack high).
Button has Ks Jc (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins t2240. </font>

Of course the table berated me for my "only a draw" play, and could not grasp that I was ahead on the flop.

[chill888]

My opinion,

1. The limp preflop is fine
2. You flop a near moster. the bet is fine
3. After the turn this guy still bets and you go OTT?

Let's assume he clearly has at least a higher pair. How many outs do you have (at most)? 9 spades, 6 more for str8 and probably 2 sixes = 17 ( I hope I did that correctly).

You are a big dog (very approximately 2-1) and pushed with virtually no fold equity. Nice River!

[SmileyEH]

I would just call the turn. I wouldn't feel pot comitted if none of your 19(actually 18) outs hit.

-SmileyEH

[ddubois]

You missed three outs, the 8's, so it was 57:43 in his favor.

I'm as pessimsitic about fold equity as anyone on these forums. I have posted how useless I think semi-bluffs are, because "these idiots always call". But even I think players (particularly at the $50/5 level) will be competent enough to toss KJo on a jack-high 3-straight board after being check-raised all-in. For the math whizzies, how often do I need my opponent to fold for this play to be plus EV when I am a 43:57 dog?

I'm mostly interested in what my plan should have been on the flop. I was not happy that leading out thinned the field so much. Ideally, I want to maximize the amount of money that goes into the pot on the flop, and getting only one caller was not my intention. Should I have done one of those fishy tiny underbets and hope to get raised from LP, so I can re-raise all-in? Should I have check-raised all-in the flop? Or some other amount?

[patrick dicaprio]

the only thing i might do differently is checkraise all in on the flop.

Pat

[patrick dicaprio]

today in a lunchtime game i had a similar hand where i moved all in on the turn but i was weaker than you and my opponent was weaker than yours:

Sb is loose aggressive when he is in the lead but is cautios when he is medium stacked and will fold to players he respects. the MP is very tight and very passive, rarely raising often calling. Blinds are 2-4. Sb has about 70, MP has 20 and i have 35 (all approx) I have 8d9d on the button. MP calls I call BB checks. Flop is KdQd8h. SB bets 8 MP calls I call. Turn is 2h. Sb bets 8, MP folds i go all in SB calls.

Thoughts?

Pat

[tallstack]

Assuming you know that you have 19 outs on the turn, then calling 275 chips gives you 43% equity in a pot of 1100 or 473 chips. This would be a gain in 198 chips with the possibility of winning more on the river. Pushing the 845 chips on the turn gives you 43% of 2240 (or 963) when you are called for a net gain of 118 chips. If you push and he folds then you get 1670 chips for a net gain of 825 chips. Thus, the push is always positive chipEV, but it involves a lot more risk. Whether it is better than the call would depend on how often you get called on the turn when you push, on how many chips you can extract on the river when you hit your hand, and on how you value the extra risk of pushing in terms of $EV.

As far as the flop, I would likely have lead out at this one with a near pot-sized bet. I wouldn't be too upset if I took it down, since you are not that big of a favorite over many hands here. You really only have 5 outs that give you a nut hand and if there are higher spades out there then I would rather have them fold. IMO, this hand has a lot of potential for good, but also a lot of potential to end up second best.

Dave S

[ddubois]

Thoughts?

It's impossible for me to answer correctly, because I do not know these players and can't gauge your folding equity. Like I said, against typical party opponents, I give low credence to semi-bluffs, because they almost never fold. I only semi-bluffed here because I had 20 to 15 outs. If I had fewer outs, say 13 to 9 like you had, I'm pretty sure I would have just called button's turn bet.

how often do I need my opponent to fold for this play to be plus EV when I am a 43:57 dog?

Let me see if I can work this through.

t825 in pot, t275 to me.

THE FOLD:
t0 EV

THE PUSH:
I think I over-estimated my fold equity by looking only at the line and his holding. But more objectively, villan has to call t570 for a t1670 pot, getting 3:1, and he has me covered by a large margin. Looking at it from his perspective, he's not going to fold top pair very often given those circumstances. Folding 20% is probably an overly generous estimate.
.20 * +t825 = +t165 EV
.80 * .43 * +(t825+t570) = +t480 EV
.80 * .57 * -t845 = -t385 EV
total = t260 EV

THE CALL:
The calculation for this depends on how much I can extract if I hit. Will villain fold to a push when the obvious flush card hits half the time? Will he fold to lesser bet less often? I'll say he gives me on average 300 more chips if I hit - too stingy or too generous?
.80 * .43 * (t550+t275+t275+t300) = +t481 EV
.80 * .57 * -t275 = -t94 EV
total = t94 EV

This justifies my push, but it's all contigient on my subjective fold equity and payoff-when-hit evaluations.

[ddubois]

Bah, I knew I would mess up the math.

.43 * (t550+t275+t300) = +t484 EV
.57 * -t275 = -t158 EV
total = t326 EV

So semi-bluffing was wrong.

[ddubois]

I made a spreadsheet, to tweak the numbers and see what happens. If we say on average the opponent will pay very little when I hit, and fold a larger portion of the time, the semi-bluff gets better:

my stack 845
pot 825
to me 275
fold likelihood 0.4
pay off if hit 100
my odds win 0.43

push ev 401
call ev 241

The fomulas I used:

=((B2*B4)+((1-B4)*B6*(B2-B3+B1))-((1-B4)*(1-B6)*B1))
=(B6*(B2+B5))-(1-B6)*B3

[poboy]

The only thing I don't like about this play is the all-in on the turn, too risky for me. Even with all those outs, you will still lose half of the time. Also I think a pot-size bet on the flop would be better. I know you said you didn't want to thin the field, but you are not exactly drawing to a monster so this is exactly what you want. I think you should be happy with the amount you did take down and not get greedy(this leads to bad beats). As "fishy" as your opponent seems to be ,I think he would have still payed you off on the river without all the risk.

[durron597]

I don't like this play. You want to get allin on this flop, since your hand loses a lot of value on the turn. If you miss, you lose value for obvious reasons, and if you hit, people will be wary of the straight card or the flush card, and thus harder to get someone to go allin with you.

The best way to get someone allin with you on the flop is to simply push and hope they think you're bluffing (ehh..... /images/graemlins/frown.gif) or to check and hope someone bets so you can put them all in. Also realize that if the flop checks around you are either against a monster (unlikely) or no one is going to pay you off anyway. That is what I would do in this multiway of a pot. I like your line more if you were HU to the flop.

[ddubois]

I'm still tweaking my little odds-&gt;bets spreadsheet, and think I've finally got it right now. Does this look right?

EV = (fold% * pot) + (call% * win% * (pot + MIN(my_stack - bet, his_stack)) - (call% * lose% * MIN(my_stack, his_stack + bet)

[RobGW]

I think your first try was correct. However, the 20% fold assumption seems too high imo. I would figure he would fold &lt; 10% of the time given his stack and pot odds etc. Solving for a 0 EV on the push you would need him to fold 16% of the time or better for a positive EV. Since I dont think he would fold that much the push is -EV. I think calling and seeing the river is better. But then again I probably would have done the same thing but I am still learning.

[tallstack]

I think that your values are right here, but I am not sure what you exactly mean from pot and bet. I always look at EV as what does it cost me to do the action (call or raise) and what do I win if I do. There are likely different ways to do this, but here is how I would approach it.

Break out each possibility into the probability of it happening multiplied by the chips you win if it happens.

If you raise all-in then it costs you 845 chips to do so. You will win the pot all the times that he folds.
A = (probability of fold)*(550+275+845)

You will also win when he calls and you hit the river.
B = (probability of call)*(probability of win at showdown)*(550+845+845)

You will lose when he calls and you miss the river.
C = (probability of call)*(probability of loss at showdown)*(0)

Your EV would be determined by adding the chips you win in each case and subtracting the chips you put in to make the action.

EV = A + B + C - 845

As a check on your spreadsheet you should make sure the probabilities from all cases add up to 1. That has helped me find errors in the past.

I hope this helps. If it looks like I have made an error here then please let me know.

Dave S

[NotMitch]

I think its a fold preflop.

[ddubois]

Half-price in the SB, 25 chips for a 200 pot. In my humble opinion it would be an awful fold pre-flop.

[ddubois]

Hmm, I think our differences are because you can compute the 'cost' of taking the action into the EV equation into each factor of the equation, or at the end after the factors are summed.

Or, possibliy, everything I did is completley wrong.

If you have a moment, please look at my spreadsheet I've provided for download (http://ddubois.bounceme.net/poker/OddsBets.xls). I welcome any opinions on its correctness (or usefulness). I tried to generalize it for multiple situations.

[PrayingMantis]

This thread is full with all kinds of EV calculations, some of them are simply wrong, IMO, and others are pretty much irrelevant.

Basically, with your great drawing hand, you are much better putting it all in the middle _on the flop_, than on the blank turn. Your smallish bet on the flop is not something I particularly like. You want either to take it down there, or force somone into a big decision. Your bet does not achieve this. So a better line is check-raise all-in (especially with this specific flop, and too many people behind). The exact line of action should be decided according to the specific action behind. If it's checked around, you get to see a free card, which is great for you, and you can make a better decision on the turn. If you don't hit it, then it's not necessarily such a great spot to put it all-in. So, generally, I agree that it's a good hand to complete from SB, but I think there are better ways to play it post-flop (flop and turn, here), when you get this quite promising (but not monsterous) flop. Hands from the SB (or BB) are usualy tougher to play than most other hands, because you often have too many limpers behind you, and the pot is unraised (= very little information), so even if you "hit", or *hit*, the play is still not quite simple.

Only my opinion, which could easily be part of the 90% wrong information on this forum... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[tallstack]

I looked at your spreadsheet and arrived at the same EV numbers using your equations. /images/graemlins/smile.gif