02-21-2002, 10:56 PM
You posted this problem last week but didn't give the answer. I originally thought it was "reraise", but now I'm thinking it is correct to fold.
If you assume that the button would raise with 25% of his hands in this spot, then by Bayes' theorem there's about a 68% chance that he holds a pocket pair or an ace, given that he raised. In either case, you're a big underdog: 3 to 1 or more.
Even if you assume that the button's raising standards are lower (e.g. 50%), there's still a good chance (34%) he has a hand that beats you, i.e. pocket pair or an ace. The rest of the time, you're a favourite but not a big one. Hence the fold preflop.
If you assume that the button would raise with 25% of his hands in this spot, then by Bayes' theorem there's about a 68% chance that he holds a pocket pair or an ace, given that he raised. In either case, you're a big underdog: 3 to 1 or more.
Even if you assume that the button's raising standards are lower (e.g. 50%), there's still a good chance (34%) he has a hand that beats you, i.e. pocket pair or an ace. The rest of the time, you're a favourite but not a big one. Hence the fold preflop.