Expected Odds Question

[Johnny_Cash_Advance]

I believe my question is best illustrated through an example, so here goes:

Say I have two suited hole cards (in Hold'em) and I flop a four flush. Now, in order to decide if I should continue to chase my flush, I need to calculate my expected odds. It's approxmately 2:1 to make my flush with two cards to come. So, I need to figure out how much money I will have to put in this round and the next (in case I don't hit my flush on the next card), and compare that to the total amount of money I expect to be in the pot after the next round. Simple enough, but my question is: Would it be entirely wrong to simply say "I'm about 4:1 against hitting my flush on the next card. What are my current pot odd?" And then, if I do not hit my flush on the next card use the same procedure. Rather than using 2:1 odds with two cards to come and calculating the expected odds, simply using 4:1 for the individual cards, and calculating the current pot odds. Perhaps, in the infinite wisdom of this message board, someone can explain to me why this is not the appropriate strategy.

[uuDevil]

I think your method is fine. However, in limit hold'em there just aren't many times you should fold a flush draw. No limit, different story.

Read this Famous Post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=463571&Forum= All_Forums&Words=charge%20the%20draws&Match=Entire %20Phrase&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Old=3months&Main=4 63571&Search=true#Post463571)

[etotheipi]

This is a subject I have pondered heavily, but not investigated as much as I should've. However, I can tell you that with your logic you are going to be folding many flush draws that offer you positive expected value, because you are neglecting implied odds.

If you are getting 3:1 pot odds on the flop, by your logic you would fold your flush draw because you need 4:1 or better. However, you neglect the fact that if you hit your flush on the turn, you expect to not only win the pot, but potentially more money in later rounds of betting. The same implied odds might apply to the river just the same.

I first became aware of this concept when I was in a tournament with a friend, and I caught the nut straight on the turn. However the turn also made a potential backdoor flush draw. I over-bet the pot to drive out my statistically-inclined friend from thinking of drawing. But he called. When the flush card came on the river I didn't put him on the flush because I didn't think he'd chase it with those horrible odds. I called him all-in. I was wrong. Why did he chase??? Because he knew I had a great hand, and he knew that if he caught the flush, he wasn't just getting what was in the pot on the turn, but the rest of my chips as well. And it worked.

[sofere]

Another thing that should be considered but is often overlooked is fold equity, especially in No Limit. If you consider betting big on a draw, you should not only take into account the probability of hitting your hand, but also the probabilty of the table folding around and you winning right there.

If you know who you're playing with and/or can get a feel for what they have in their hands, you can usually get a good idea of how often they'll fold in that situation.