Be vewy quiet! I'm hunting that wascawwy information.

[Azhrarn]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed). No reads I can recall.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Okay, so the pre-flop raise made me suspicious of the sb, and the check did nothing to allay it. I'm not sure if he's hunting for overcards or trapping, so I call to see what he does. Naturally, he gives away nothing.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

The turn looks like a brick, so I put the SB to a tougher test. Since both SB and MP1 call, I decide to check the river unimproved.

River: (14.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Thoughts? I'm particularly interested in thoughts on flop raise v. turn raise in this sitch, and on my river check.

[me454555]

Raise the flop. With 2 people left to act don't let them hunt overcards cheap. Make them pay 2 cold and give them 6:1 instead of 12:1

[joker122]

Good. Really, really good.

[Evan]

I'm raising this flop 100% of the time. SB probably missed with overs, don't give him a chance to catch.

[Alobar]

I raise the flop here.

I wouldnt automatically plan to check the river. In this case I dont think its bad.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising this flop 100% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Na, his pot equity sucks on the flop. It's much better on the turn.

[Ragone]

raise flop... just my opinion...

[Evan]

He's got top pair, he's closing the action and half the deck scares him if SB is still in the hand. I think those are all good reasons for raising the flop.

[Danenania]

Joker, I don't think there are enough possible draws on board to justify waiting until the turn. With TP decent kicker and a backdoor flush draw on a totally uncoordinated board, Hero's equity is looking pretty darn good to me on the flop. He also has a chance to knock out some likely overcards which makes raising even better.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising this flop 100% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to reply that this is precisely the reason to wait till the turn - this is a concept I'm sure of. But SB actually isn't getting odds with overcards if you face him with 2 bets on the flop. And if you can get him out that's huge.

So yeah, you're right - raise the flop.

[Azhrarn]

True, but I am I going to get the SB to fold with a flop raise, even if he has overcards? Almost certainly not. He's getting decent odds to try to catch a pair on the turn even with my raise.

On the other hand, he's not getting the odds to call a turn raise. And if a scare card comes on the turn, I may be able to get away from the hand cheaply (action dependent.)

[Azhrarn]

[ QUOTE ]
But SB actually isn't getting odds with overcards if you face him with 2 bets on the flop. And if you can get him out that's huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't he? I'm counting 7.5 to 1 right away if I raise the flop, and it's 8.5 to 1 if he assumes the two MPs will call the raise.

And psychologically, I think most low-limit players won't want to fold the flop after raising from the bb unless the board is very threatening. This is not a threatening board. In fact, it's quite cute. It has a nice smile. And dimples.

I agree, it would be fantastic if I could knock the SB out, but I think the odds of it happening here are very, very low.

[Evan]

I also play the Party 3/6 and I think most players would fold overs there.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]

Isn't he? I'm counting 7.5 to 1 right away if I raise the flop, and it's 8.5 to 1 if he assumes the two MPs will call the raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Damnit, you're right. Well now I don't know what to think.

[Azhrarn]

[ QUOTE ]
I also play the Party 3/6 and I think most players would fold overs there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, that has not been my experience. Do you agree it would be good poker for him to call a flop raise with overs here? He would be getting 7.5 to 1 (with a probable 8.5 to 1) on it, and the board's not threatening.

I agree that if I have a decent chance of the sb folding his overs, I must raise the flop.

[Evan]

You have to understand, he doesn't know you only have top pair and he isn't reverse dominated. I all six of his outs are clean he should call in theory. However, in situations like this it's common practive to count each out as .5 outs to competsate for the problems I mentioned. that would give him only 3 outs and make this an easy fold.

[Azhrarn]

One last post before bed...

[ QUOTE ]
You have to understand, he doesn't know you only have top pair and he isn't reverse dominated. I all six of his outs are clean he should call in theory. However, in situations like this it's common practive to count each out as .5 outs to competsate for the problems I mentioned.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I understand about reverse domination. But two points to consider regarding this board:

1) Reverse domination is more of a concern when there are board cards near your hole cards (notwithstanding the apparent policy of many Party players to play any ace.) There are no broadway cards on the board.

2) This one's more specific, but the board is rainbow. If his overs are suited (which his sb raise makes more likely), there's a decent chance he flopped a backdoor flush draw.

Taking into account implied odds, I maintain it would be correct for the sb to call a flop raise with virtually all overs that were worth raising with in that position pre-flop.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Reverse domination is more of a concern when there are board cards near your hole cards (notwithstanding the apparent policy of many Party players to play any ace.) There are no broadway cards on the board.


[/ QUOTE ]

Reverse domination isn't really an issue. The SB has to call 2 cold with 6 outs that he doesn't even know are good or not.

[ QUOTE ]
2) This one's more specific, but the board is rainbow. If his overs are suited (which his sb raise makes more likely), there's a decent chance he flopped a backdoor flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

It is much more likely that his hand is not suited, just based on hole card combinations.

I agree with Evan that overs get folded here a majority of the time.

[scotnt73]

easy easy flop raise. you have top pair push out the overcards.

[chson]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed). No reads I can recall.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Okay, so the pre-flop raise made me suspicious of the sb, and the check did nothing to allay it. I'm not sure if he's hunting for overcards or trapping, so I call to see what he does. Naturally, he gives away nothing.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

The turn looks like a brick, so I put the SB to a tougher test. Since both SB and MP1 call, I decide to check the river unimproved.

River: (14.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Thoughts? I'm particularly interested in thoughts on flop raise v. turn raise in this sitch, and on my river check.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is too large and your edge is too small to raise on the flop. The turn raise was very g00t.

[lil']

The only one who might fold to a flop raise is the SB. Everyone else has put in one bet and will call another.

It would help if you had some type of read on the SB. Against an unknown, I'd raise the flop and try to force him to make a mistake by folding his overcards. He may have odds to draw to 6 outs, but that's not an easy call to make when it's two back to you.

It's not a slam dunk, he may call two cold, but they'll fold overs enough to make it worth a shot, and getting overs out really increases your chances of winning.

[ErrantNight]

he has the odds to call a flop raise, not a turn raise... my initial reaction is to say "raise the flop" but you have a vulnerable hand with which a raise isn't going to do anything to protect it.

waiting for the turn raise assuming a blank (or a scare card if you've got the stones and the read) to check raise is much better. it protects your hand giving you the best chance to win this puppy. the pot is too big to make a flop raise worthwhile. even if you currently have the best hand it's likely to not be best by the river. when the board still looks good on the turn the raise gives you your best chance to win.

nice play

[ErrantNight]

you say this without concern for HOW BIG THIS POT IS.

if a solid player might make this call if he simply thinks all 6 outs are good... what's a weak player gonna do? this is not a scary board... there's a lot of money in the pot, and there's probably more callers behind. at BEST you might be able to convince yourself he'd fold as often as, say, 40-50% of the time, which isn't nearly enough

whereas: he gets MUCH worse odds on the turn for this same raise. it ALSO saves you from wasting a bet on the flop if a scare card comes. you're either forced to follow through and bluff into a field that might have you dominated, or give up on your bet and consider folding. Not appealing choices.

The turn raise is MUCH better.

[lil']

I think the reason people are split is because it's a close decision. The pot is right at a point where it's tricky. If the pot were a little smaller raising would be easier. If the pot were a little larger calling would be easier.

I still think if you can force the SB into a mistake (and overcards will fold to a raise here a lot), it's worth getting him out now.

[Azhrarn]

Thanks for all of the comments. It's been an interesting discussion.

SB took the pot down with pocket kings. MP1 had pocket 7's.
At least I hurt SB's trapping play...

[BottlesOf]

I think this line is fine, but despite an overcard coming, I think you should bet the river.

[spamuell]

I raise the flop because I'm going to have a hard time raising the turn when an overcard falls, which is like half the time. If you somehow know what the turn card is going to be, I prefer waiting, but you don't so I don't.

I like the check behind on the river. The SB could easily be scared of the turn raise, he's going to have a hard time 3-betting with just a pair, but if he has a pair it beats you. If he did have overcards, the river is one of them. I usually bet rivers like this all the time but I don't think you have both opponents beaten enough of the time when they call to make this worthwhile.

[ErrantNight]

you don't raise the turn when an overcard comes. you can make an argument for a full bluff there.... but really, you're waiting 'til the turn to c/r because if you ARE ahead and you can protect your hand w/ a raise here. a flop raise does nothing. it doesn't drive out better hands, and it doesn't drive out any hand with a halfway reasonable draw. if it looks like you're still ahead on the turn, raise. if it doesn't, you can fold and save yourself a bet.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
at BEST you might be able to convince yourself he'd fold as often as, say, 40-50% of the time, which isn't nearly enough

[/ QUOTE ]

50% is not a generous estimate, but I'll use it anyway. It's more than enough. Say he folds 50% of the time, you will incease your chances of winning by 12%:

.5 x .24 = .12 where .24 is the percentage of the time he will hit an overcard by the river. When you win an 8.5BB pot 12% more often your 1SB raise has gained you 1.02BB (.12 x 8.5 = 1.02) in expectation. The raise is clearly profitable.

I'd like to know why you said 50% isn't nearly enough - or were you just estimating?