Daliman still getting killed, looking for independent analysis

[Daliman]

Ok, I've dropped 1k in my last 19 $100+9 SNg's, I feel like I'm playing very well, I'm bitching out people on the tables with wild abandon, and I'm looking for answers.

ANyone interested in seeing my last 19 tourneys for review, analysis and criticism, please PM me your Email address and I will send them to you. MAke sure you have 5 MB's of storage or so available. My only request is that you post you findings on my play, warts and all, here in this thread, so maybe others can learn also from my losses.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I've dropped 1k in my last 19 $100+9 SNg's, I feel like I'm playing very well, I'm bitching out people on the tables with wild abandon, and I'm looking for answers.

ANyone interested in seeing my last 19 tourneys for review, analysis and criticism, please PM me your Email address and I will send them to you. MAke sure you have 5 MB's of storage or so available. My only request is that you post you findings on my play, warts and all, here in this thread, so maybe others can learn also from my losses.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll do my EV vs AV analysis on your all-ins. PM sent.

eastbay

[durron597]

I'll take a look at 'em. PM sent.

[Nick B.]

Why don't you drop down to 1-2 or 2-4 and rebuild your roll like that. I am sure the confidence you will gain will help you in the long run. I know you are down a lot of money but I don't think you can look to get it all back right now. I hope everything turns around for you.

[Daliman]

just not mentally possible for me to play that low.

[Daliman]

Ok,, first batch is sent....


The horror....

[ddubois]

eastbay, I'm interested in your AV vs EV tool. Will you share it?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
eastbay, I'm interested in your AV vs EV tool. Will you share it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you saw it you would lose interest. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

It's shell script. Do you have a linux box or cygwin? That's the first obstacle.

The second obstacle is that I wrote it to process mbox files, so I could just run it straight on my mozilla mailbox. So it takes some tweaking to run it on plain text files.

So, I'm not in principle opposed to sharing it, but it needs some work first.

eastbay

[eastbay]

You're not running bad as far as preflop all-ins go. After an initial bad run, you're about where you should be:

http://rwa.homelinux.net/daliman-preflop.pdf

The "good news" (I guess) is that you've taken a few beats on flop all-ins. Your chipEV is +700 chips but you're actually down 2000 chips. There's only four flop all-ins in the sample you sent me, so this kind of fluctuation isn't too surprising.

Anyway, this is only one tiny thing to look at in the overall picture, but it can be helpful to know.

eastbay

[ddubois]

Yea, I have linux box. I'm don't want it bad enough to hack shell scripts however. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Daliman]

Well, on preflop full allins, it seemed I was getting bad luck, but not horrendous luck, but the flop ones were really killing me. Most specific recent instances were losing AA to 8Th after MP raised one limper to 60, I RR'd to 250, got two callers and 89T came down, Losing KK to JQ when Qxx flopped, CR'd allin on flop and river Q, and a hand where at 50-100 blinds an aggressive SB limped in Headsup with me having QK, he had ~700T left, i had ~1100, flop AQ9, he checked, i bet 200, knowing he'd never limp with an ace here, he CR'd me allin for 500 or so more, and I called after long thought, going with my read, plus getting almost 2-1 on my money in the off chance he had me beat at the moment,( not enough if he had Q9, which of course, he did).
Alot of my problem isn't so much JUST having consistant BAD luck, but not GETTING lucky as often as I should. Still, -2700 from where I should be on the flop, where i almost never get money in badly is pretty disconcerting, even given the fact it's only 4 hands.

Also, i'm wondering if there is much difference in my preflop allins EV compared to actual first 5 rounds or so, compared to late, where my range of allin hands increases significantly. A couple of A3 vs AT allin suckouts headsup when the blinds are 300-600 can wipe out several AA vs 55 alins early, can't they?

I'm no math wiz, but let's see if i have the jist of this.

Let's say in 5 tournaments, I go allin first hand with AA vs 55, and lose them all.

5x2000T X.81=8100T EV Actual=T0, so -8100T

but at the end of one tourney, i go allin with 55 vs the big blinds AA, and we both start with T5000 total b4 blinds, and suck out;

T10000x.19 =1900 Actual=T10000, so +8100

sounds like a wash, but I'm sure there is some statistical model(or something like it, again, i'm a math hack) that could easily prove there is better $$$ equity in having 2k chips with 9 players left than the $1000 for winning. Actually, i'm gonna take a math hack stab at it; /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

T2000 with 9P left =20% of total chips in play, plus 10% of the field is gone, therefore I am 22% equity of this tournament.

I'll go at this two ways, i'm guessing the outcome will be similat, but not the same, given the higher porportional payout for finishing first.

22%x total prize pool of 1k = 220$

So in this way, if i win the 4 instead of the one, I get 4x220=$880 vs 1x500=$500. Even though my EV is dead even i'm ~78% lower than I should be $$$-wise.


Now then, the more accurate( I think) math hack way;

IF average positioning from start is 10% first, second and third, then 2.2 times the average, ( given the 2x the chips and 10% less competitors)is
22% first x 500=110
22% second x 300=66
22% third x 200=44

110+66+44=$220

Sumbitch. I either ain't as dumb as I think I am or I'm WAY dumber. You decide.

Anyways, as you can see, I come up with the same results either way. I guess this was more of an exercise for me, but tell me if my #'s jive here. I understand if you dont want to break it down by levels; and I greatly appreciate you checking it out at all. But getting a suckout for all your chips seems to me to be WAY more costly early than late, and I don't often get my chips in behind early, ESPECIALLY preflop first 2 levels.

[Daliman]

P.S. In the above post, i accidentally used first place $$$ for at $200 SNG first, then for a $100 SNG. I did correct this in my calculations, but it could be confusing.

Please accept my humble apologies....

[CrisBrown]

Hi Daliman,

I've only reviewed the first three SNGs so far, so I can only comment on what I see there. However, I do have three notes so far:

(1) You appear to be playing "cards only" poker. That is, I saw no steals, no attempt to take advantage of position, and no post-flop attempt to take a pot unless the flop hit you hard. Again, though, this was only the first 3 SNGs, so that impression may change as I review more.

(2) The common corrolary to this is also evident in the first three SNGs: once you do get a hand, you're getting all-in with it very quickly, at which point you lose any opportunity to out-play opponents post-flop. I call this the "waiting for a hand to go broke on" syndrome.

(3) In the first three SNGs, you seem to be overplaying marginal Aces out of position. I saw it with AQ twice, both times calling into raised pots, and with AJ once as well. These aren't hands that play well out of position, and especially not in raised pots. All three times, you check-folded at the (missed) flop.

Again, these are only my impressions from the first 3 SNGs, so it may be that as I review more of them, I'll see more of your game emerge. But what I'm seeing so far is too much focus on the cards alone, rather than the overall situation in a given pot.

Cris

[Daliman]

Well, I DO sort of play "cards only" for the first 3 rounds, rarely getting involved unless big or immediately improvable. I just don't see much value in raising 3x the BB on level 1 with QJs from the cutoff, betting pot on the flop, and folding anytime some joker comes over the top of me allin because I only have top pair mid kicker, which is usually good,(happens a ton). I have recently tried to put a bit more "play" into my game starting at level 3, but I hate bleeding off chips into other players when my hand is marginal and I may have been better off pounding it through. I do steal a fair amount more later, but rarely bald steal. This style of play is also easier for to when 4 tabling, so probably not completely optimal under ANY circumstances

In regard to this statement...
[ QUOTE ]
(2) The common corrolary to this is also evident in the first three SNGs: once you do get a hand, you're getting all-in with it very quickly, at which point you lose any opportunity to out-play opponents post-flop. I call this the "waiting for a hand to go broke on" syndrome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was I usually ahead when I made these plays, and would you have played them differently. I HAVE been making a conscious effort to charge people alot more when i have a big hand, but one that may be a bit vulnerable, ESPECIALLY when they have already shown a willingness to put $$$ in the pot.


Also, this style is essentially the same than enabled me to win $32 per $200+15 for ~ 1700 tourneys, so I'm not positive what's changed. It certainly didn't SEEM like I was very lucky....

Also, the AJ hand wasn't what I expected when looking back. You play this hand differently? I'm pretty tight, but AJc seems ok UTG 8 handed at this level to me...

***** Hand History for Game 955658446 *****
50/100 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 5896517) - Thu Sep 16 23:01:59 EDT 2004
Table Table 12929 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 2: poolman88 (1010)
Seat 3: MichaelEads (410)
Seat 4: jeff420 (800)
Seat 5: binky44 (940)
Seat 6: asharooky (2170)
Seat 7: DarkStargasm (765)
Seat 8: priscilla26 (2595)
Seat 9: WMetcalf (1310)
binky44 posts small blind (25)
asharooky posts big blind (50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DarkStargasm [ Jc, Ac ]
DarkStargasm raises (150) to 150
priscilla26 folds.
WMetcalf folds.
poolman88 calls (150)
MichaelEads folds.
jeff420 folds.
binky44 folds.
asharooky folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6d, 9h, Kh ]
DarkStargasm checks.
poolman88 bets (325)
DarkStargasm folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 700
Board: [ 6d 9h Kh ]
poolman88 balance 1235, bet 475, collected 700, net +225
MichaelEads balance 410, didn't bet (folded)
jeff420 balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
binky44 balance 915, lost 25 (folded)
asharooky balance 2120, lost 50 (folded)
DarkStargasm balance 615, lost 150 (folded)
priscilla26 balance 2595, didn't bet (folded)
WMetcalf balance 1310, didn't bet (folded)


TYVM for your initial comments though.

[La Brujita]

I think the AJ play is very standard preflop. No way you can let it go. The only tricky thing is whether to push post flop or check fold. Especially tough without any clubs on flop.

Is there really that much post flop play in sit and gos as the blinds get bigger?

I am not sure I get what the "hand to go broke" syndrome is. I try to get as much money in as I can when I have the best of it, whether that is preflop on the flop, on the turn or the river I don't care. The money gets shallow so quick that I am one of those get your money in fast with big hands players. Is that a bad thing?

[kamelion44]

I guess I would be worried that I was missing out on taking more easy chips off chumps by blowing them out of the water, or missing spots where I can trap and eliminate my better competition, and thereby being short-stacked and desperate when the blinds inevitably go up.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Daliman,

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I DO sort of play "cards only" for the first 3 rounds, rarely getting involved unless big or immediately improvable. I just don't see much value in raising 3x the BB on level 1 with QJs from the cutoff, betting pot on the flop, and folding anytime some joker comes over the top of me allin because I only have top pair mid kicker, which is usually good,(happens a ton). I have recently tried to put a bit more "play" into my game starting at level 3, but I hate bleeding off chips into other players when my hand is marginal and I may have been better off pounding it through. I do steal a fair amount more later, but rarely bald steal. This style of play is also easier for to when 4 tabling, so probably not completely optimal under ANY circumstances

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this may be an issue. I've seen it in all the SNGs I've seen so far. The problem I see with it is related to the next point....

[ QUOTE ]
Was I usually ahead when I made these plays, and would you have played them differently. I HAVE been making a conscious effort to charge people alot more when i have a big hand, but one that may be a bit vulnerable, ESPECIALLY when they have already shown a willingness to put $$$ in the pot.

Also, this style is essentially the same than enabled me to win $32 per $200+15 for ~ 1700 tourneys, so I'm not positive what's changed. It certainly didn't SEEM like I was very lucky....

[/ QUOTE ]

For example, you raise AA pre-flop, and get one caller. The flop is 8-9-T. You're out of position, and you push ahead of him. He calls you with T8 and wins it with two pair. The pre-flop raise is fine (obviously). But think about that flop play. Who is going to call that push with anything that won't beat an overpair? Which means you'll either: (a) win what's in the pot; or, (b) go bust if you are called. That's what I mean by "waiting for a hand to go broke on" syndrome.

Similarly, you call a raise with 77, and push on a 9-9-x flop. AK calls you and catches an A at the river. Yes, you were ahead. But you had no way of being sure you were ahead, and in fact you might have been badly behind. This kind of play forces you to be right with your read AND for your hand to hold up when you are right. That's a lot of pressure to put on a frail little 77....

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the AJ hand wasn't what I expected when looking back. You play this hand differently? I'm pretty tight, but AJc seems ok UTG 8 handed at this level to me...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd muck AJs UTG there, every time. It's a drawing hand, at a big table, where I'm out of position. I'm expecting that $100 SNG opponents will be skilled players -- and in fact I recognize some of the nicks in your file from back when I played at UB -- which means they're going to make it very difficult for me to play a draw profitably from UTG.

Basically, what I'm seeing is that, even in the later rounds, you're playing big-pot-or-nothing poker too much. AA isn't a big pot hand on an 8-9-T flop. 77 isn't a big pot hand on a 9-9-x flop.

Yes, sometimes you're falling victim to (seemingly) absurd outdraws, like your 99 to your opponent's 55. He probably read your pre-flop raise for big cards, and figured you wouldn't want to race against him, thus his all-in push. Your call was fine, given your short stack. He caught. Oh well. Your response: "idiots with SPPs" is not going to help your game improve, and it reflects a frustration level that is probably harming your concentration. There was a logic to his play. As it turned out, though, he had to get lucky ... and did. That happens sometimes.

I guess what I'm saying in all of this is that you are putting yourself in a lot of life-or-death situations: where you are all-in and covered. Even when you're ahead when the money goes in, you can't expect to survive too many all-in-and-covered coups before the short side of the odds catch up to you.

So my suggestion, for what it's worth, would be to be a bit more patient with the hands you do play. Be willing to win (or lose) a small pot when your big pair turns into a small pot hand on a coordinated flop, or when you have a small pot hand (like 77) to begin with.

In that regard, I think loosening up a bit in late position will help. When you have the advantage of position, use it to pick up small pots here and there, keep yourself out of the cellar, and put less pressure on yourself to double up with every "big" hand you see. That way, when you do get a good hand, and the flop goes sour, you can lay it down with the confidence that you will get -- or give yourself -- a better situation later.

Cris

[berya]

I don't believe 1 and 2 are a problem at all. This seems to be the strategy (at least to me) most of the winning players who multitable use. I have tried the positional dance myself many times and in my opinion it is not an optimal strategy for these. I actually think 1 and 2 is what gets the money.

[Daliman]

While I appeciate the viewpoint, I feel you might not be grasping the reasoning why I made some of these plays, as well as the structure of the hands themselves. I'll refer to the specific hands noted, for further discussion;

[ QUOTE ]
For example, you raise AA pre-flop, and get one caller. The flop is 8-9-T. You're out of position, and you push ahead of him. He calls you with T8 and wins it with two pair. The pre-flop raise is fine (obviously). But think about that flop play. Who is going to call that push with anything that won't beat an overpair? Which means you'll either: (a) win what's in the pot; or, (b) go bust if you are called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes alot of sense, however, the hand played out quite a bit differently than you stated;
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t965)
Button (t1210)
SB (t945)
BB (t715)
UTG (t845)
UTG+1 (t2265)
MP1 (t920)
MP2 (t1160)
MP3 (t975)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t60</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t60, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t250</font>, Button calls t250, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP3 calls t190.

Flop: (t855) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP3 bets t30</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t715 (All-In)</font>, Button folds, MP3 calls t685.

Turn: (t2285) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2285) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2285

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP3 has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has Ac As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP3 wins t2285. </font>

So I was actually IN position on the initail flop bettor and eventual winner, and RAISED allin another 685 into an 885 pot after MP3 made a weak bet out. Considering the preflop call, he is going to call with any 7 or J, and be getting proper odds to do so, and is also going to likely call any 8, 9, and DEFINITLEY T. I also wanted to lock out the hand behind me for the same reason; he could EASILY have A jack OR a Queen, and I didn't want to give him a cheap shot at it. Mind you, i wasnt thrilled with this flop, but I had I big pot already there and would have been more than happy to take what was there. Also, notice I raised it all the way to 250, yet still get a call from 8Th.. So much for protecting your hand. I think calling the flop only is disastrous, and raising anything less than i did accomplishes little. Even behind as I was, I still had 25% or so chance to win this pot, meaning if I raised to 250 or so and he pushed on me, I had to call still. I don't know that much more could be done with this hand, save for folding on the flop. Even if i just call along, yeah, i GUESS i COULD have folded for the Q on the turn giving a 1 card straight on the board, but I thought the flop bet-out was either weak or strong, and I chose wrong, I guess.

[ QUOTE ]
Similarly, you call a raise with 77, and push on a 9-9-x flop. AK calls you and catches an A at the river. Yes, you were ahead. But you had no way of being sure you were ahead, and in fact you might have been badly behind. This kind of play forces you to be right with your read AND for your hand to hold up when you are right. That's a lot of pressure to put on a frail little 77....


[/ QUOTE ]

Again here's the hand;
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t938)
CO (t528)
Button (t373)
SB (t1460)
BB (t795)
UTG (t2231)
UTG+1 (t878)
MP1 (t1792)
Hero (t1005)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t50.

Flop: (t225) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises to t300</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t905 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t395 (All-In).

Turn: (t1825) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t1825) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1825
<font color="green">Main Pot: t1615 (t1615), between BB and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by BB (t1615).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: t210 (t210), returned to Hero.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB has Kd Ah (two pair, aces and nines).
Hero has 7h 7d (two pair, nines and sevens).
Outcome: BB wins t1615. Hero wins t210. </font>

I think I made a great read here, and will detail my thinking.

I bet 150 into a 225 pot on the flop, he raised my 150 more, normally, I insta-muck for miniraises on threatening boards, but I started thinking what he might have;

1. He might have a 9, (not A9, but hell, maybe). I ruled this out. I think he either calls along or goes allin to protect vs the 2 spades on board.
2. He might have a duece. Eh, maybe, but if that's the case, no problem. 22 would be a BIG problem, but he smooth calls flop then, i'm sure.
3. He might have a pocket pair 33-88. Somewhat likely. long as it aint 88, i'm cool.
4. He has an overpair. Highly doubtful, unless he has AA or KK, because I probably would have heard from him in the preflop action. Also, I think an overpair pushes on flop given the scary board, but there's all kinds out there.
5. He has a flush draw. This is very possible. Also likely he has 2 overcards with it too IF he has the flush draw, however, again, I think he pushes the flop check raise then.
6. He has overcards only. Doubtful but again, all kinds play these things.

Given all this, I pushed, and he called 395 more into a 1405 pot, getting 3.5 to 1 on his call, needing 3 to 1, although he could easily have been drawing way worse or dead. I expected him to call, given how few chips he had left, but I definitely would have preferred a fold, not even considering the results.
This hand in particular, your analysis puzzles me. One one hand, you say I appear too card-based which I can agree with, but then when I make a great, proper play, you say it's too risky. Are we thinking the same thing with the term "out-play" /images/graemlins/confused.gif?

The AJs hand, well, I was about to be a 10% shorter stack, and My raising standards 8 handed UTG at that level DO include AJs. Different strokes on the PF raise... I don't know most of the $100+9 players, so I couldn't say I would have folded since they're tougher competition.


[ QUOTE ]
Yes, sometimes you're falling victim to (seemingly) absurd outdraws, like your 99 to your opponent's 55. He probably read your pre-flop raise for big cards, and figured you wouldn't want to race against him, thus his all-in push. Your call was fine, given your short stack. He caught. Oh well. Your response: "idiots with SPPs" is not going to help your game improve, and it reflects a frustration level that is probably harming your concentration.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely

[ QUOTE ]
There was a logic to his play. As it turned out, though, he had to get lucky ... and did. That happens sometimes.



[/ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2030)
MP (t995)
Hero (t840)
Button (t1415)
SB (t2405)
BB (t2315)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">BB raises to t800</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t840 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t40.

Flop: (t1705) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1705) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1705) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1705
<font color="green">Main Pot: t1705 (t1705), between Hero and BB.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by BB (t1705).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero has 9s 9c (two pair, queens and nines).
BB has 5d 5c (full house, fives full of queens).
Outcome: BB wins t1705. </font>
I disagree completely. I think far too many people play this "I put him on overcards" strategy, and It's a losing one. OF COURSE you out me on overcards! You mean to say you put me on kings but raised me anyways? It's bad poker, plain and simple. A call preflop is not terrible, but the RR figuring overcards only is bad. I had seen this player make stupid aggressiv plays in the past, especially with a stack, and I was not in steal position, so there's not alot of merit to thinking I'm folding preflop after raising as the shortest stack at the table, is there?

[ QUOTE ]
I guess what I'm saying in all of this is that you are putting yourself in a lot of life-or-death situations: where you are all-in and covered. Even when you're ahead when the money goes in, you can't expect to survive too many all-in-and-covered coups before the short side of the odds catch up to you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely possible. Some of this may be borne of frustration, although the ones you've seen are probably more than a bit abberant in this regard.
[ QUOTE ]
So my suggestion, for what it's worth, would be to be a bit more patient with the hands you do play. Be willing to win (or lose) a small pot when your big pair turns into a small pot hand on a coordinated flop, or when you have a small pot hand (like 77) to begin with.

In that regard, I think loosening up a bit in late position will help. When you have the advantage of position, use it to pick up small pots here and there, keep yourself out of the cellar, and put less pressure on yourself to double up with every "big" hand you see. That way, when you do get a good hand, and the flop goes sour, you can lay it down with the confidence that you will get -- or give yourself -- a better situation later.

Cris

[/ QUOTE ]

Overall, I've been trying to do this, let my play dictate my results more than the cards do, but when I get a good read, I am going with it. More often as my read says to press the hand, it says to fold it, and I make a LOT of "good" folds,( not the HALLMARK of a great player, but definitely a piece of the puzzle)

Again, TYVM for the analysis so far.

[Nick B.]

This is a very good post and I agree completely. While sitting and waiting in the first couple rounds of the lower buyin tournaments will work to get you in the money, they simply don't work at the higher buy ins.

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Daliman,


Quote:
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Well, I DO sort of play "cards only" for the first 3 rounds, rarely getting involved unless big or immediately improvable. I just don't see much value in raising 3x the BB on level 1 with QJs from the cutoff, betting pot on the flop, and folding anytime some joker comes over the top of me allin because I only have top pair mid kicker, which is usually good,(happens a ton). I have recently tried to put a bit more "play" into my game starting at level 3, but I hate bleeding off chips into other players when my hand is marginal and I may have been better off pounding it through. I do steal a fair amount more later, but rarely bald steal. This style of play is also easier for to when 4 tabling, so probably not completely optimal under ANY circumstances


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Yes, this may be an issue. I've seen it in all the SNGs I've seen so far. The problem I see with it is related to the next point....


Quote:
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Was I usually ahead when I made these plays, and would you have played them differently. I HAVE been making a conscious effort to charge people alot more when i have a big hand, but one that may be a bit vulnerable, ESPECIALLY when they have already shown a willingness to put $$$ in the pot.

Also, this style is essentially the same than enabled me to win $32 per $200+15 for ~ 1700 tourneys, so I'm not positive what's changed. It certainly didn't SEEM like I was very lucky....


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For example, you raise AA pre-flop, and get one caller. The flop is 8-9-T. You're out of position, and you push ahead of him. He calls you with T8 and wins it with two pair. The pre-flop raise is fine (obviously). But think about that flop play. Who is going to call that push with anything that won't beat an overpair? Which means you'll either: (a) win what's in the pot; or, (b) go bust if you are called. That's what I mean by "waiting for a hand to go broke on" syndrome.

Similarly, you call a raise with 77, and push on a 9-9-x flop. AK calls you and catches an A at the river. Yes, you were ahead. But you had no way of being sure you were ahead, and in fact you might have been badly behind. This kind of play forces you to be right with your read AND for your hand to hold up when you are right. That's a lot of pressure to put on a frail little 77....


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Also, the AJ hand wasn't what I expected when looking back. You play this hand differently? I'm pretty tight, but AJc seems ok UTG 8 handed at this level to me...


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I'd muck AJs UTG there, every time. It's a drawing hand, at a big table, where I'm out of position. I'm expecting that $100 SNG opponents will be skilled players -- and in fact I recognize some of the nicks in your file from back when I played at UB -- which means they're going to make it very difficult for me to play a draw profitably from UTG.

Basically, what I'm seeing is that, even in the later rounds, you're playing big-pot-or-nothing poker too much. AA isn't a big pot hand on an 8-9-T flop. 77 isn't a big pot hand on a 9-9-x flop.

Yes, sometimes you're falling victim to (seemingly) absurd outdraws, like your 99 to your opponent's 55. He probably read your pre-flop raise for big cards, and figured you wouldn't want to race against him, thus his all-in push. Your call was fine, given your short stack. He caught. Oh well. Your response: "idiots with SPPs" is not going to help your game improve, and it reflects a frustration level that is probably harming your concentration. There was a logic to his play. As it turned out, though, he had to get lucky ... and did. That happens sometimes.

I guess what I'm saying in all of this is that you are putting yourself in a lot of life-or-death situations: where you are all-in and covered. Even when you're ahead when the money goes in, you can't expect to survive too many all-in-and-covered coups before the short side of the odds catch up to you.

So my suggestion, for what it's worth, would be to be a bit more patient with the hands you do play. Be willing to win (or lose) a small pot when your big pair turns into a small pot hand on a coordinated flop, or when you have a small pot hand (like 77) to begin with.

In that regard, I think loosening up a bit in late position will help. When you have the advantage of position, use it to pick up small pots here and there, keep yourself out of the cellar, and put less pressure on yourself to double up with every "big" hand you see. That way, when you do get a good hand, and the flop goes sour, you can lay it down with the confidence that you will get -- or give yourself -- a better situation later.

Cris

[/ QUOTE ]

[La Brujita]

FWIW I am all in with the AA as well. One player bets 30 into a pot of 800-you can't fear a monster right, it has to be a bluff or a draw. His bet was terrible given the flop. This is a case where the shallowness of the structure gets you, not any misplay. I mean what choice do you have? Let an opponent draw for free? Let AJ bet you out of the pot?

I don't really love the miniraise with 77 frankly. You got a pretty great flop so I think you gotta be aggressive. AA KK or QQ reraise most likely preflop no? I fear JJ TT and 88 but poker is about taking calculated risks here because there is a huge range of hands he could have. Part of the problem with the miniraise is he could have an incredible range of hands.

The miniraise is damn scary here and you made a great read. I sometimes see the flush draw here make the mr but also trips or better.

Getting your money in here as a 3:1 fave must be an example of outplaying someone post flop. Not really that impressed with your opponent's play at all. I mean push or fold BB-you only have about 740 chips and are facing a 150 bet and a pot size of almost 400.

Playing the nines to the reraise is just player/read dependent imo.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Daliman,

[ QUOTE ]
I also wanted to lock out the hand behind me for the same reason; he could EASILY have A jack OR a Queen, and I didn't want to give him a cheap shot at it. Mind you, i wasnt thrilled with this flop, but I had I big pot already there and would have been more than happy to take what was there. Also, notice I raised it all the way to 250, yet still get a call from 8Th.. So much for protecting your hand. I think calling the flop only is disastrous, and raising anything less than i did accomplishes little. Even behind as I was, I still had 25% or so chance to win this pot, meaning if I raised to 250 or so and he pushed on me, I had to call still. I don't know that much more could be done with this hand, save for folding on the flop. Even if i just call along, yeah, i GUESS i COULD have folded for the Q on the turn giving a 1 card straight on the board, but I thought the flop bet-out was either weak or strong, and I chose wrong, I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that there is almost no way your AA is still significantly ahead on an 8-9-T flop. You are either a small (3:2) favorite or big (2:1 or worse) dog to all of the following hands: JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, and any connector from QJ to 76. Any of those hands has a straight, a set, two pair, or at least 10 outs to one of the above. Even if you're ahead (vs. JJ, 77, JT, or 76), your opponent is getting better than 3:1 pot odds as only a 3:2 dog. The only hands against which you're a significant (more than 3:1) favorite are KK, QQ, 66 or less, Ax, or Kx. As I said in my initial response, this flop turns AA into a small pot hand.

I've reviewed the rest of the SNGs you sent, and I'm seeing the same overall pattern I'd mentioned in my earlier posts. Your play -- and your table chat -- evidence an attitude of desperation. You seem to be trying to force big pots on small pot hands, and your comments (e.g.: "lets see this hand lose") appear to confirm that.

Please don't take this as personal criticism. I do respect your play, as I've said in other posts. It might help you to drop to lower stakes -- another poster suggested you try some $1/2 ring game play -- or to focus on another game for a little while (like Pot-Limit Omaha). Something that will shake you out of this mental cycle you seem to be trapped within, and allow you to get your game back on track.

Good luck,

Cris

[imcastleman]

This crisbrown person is quite the wordsmith. I am not sure you should be following much of his/her advice. It would be wrong to play the AA hand any differently. I think you should be thrilled that 8 T or 79 or whatever it was called you. I don't have any advice for you but to keep doing what you are doing and maybe tighten up even more. I do agree with cris on the folding of the AJs though, I probably would limp with it and fold to big raises. However, if it were level 4, I would raise to 225 or all in if I had less than 7 or 8 big blinds.

Good luck to you and find someone else to read your hand histories.

[Lori]

Just a suggestion, maybe several of us could take 1 SNG each to not only lighten the load but to speed up the process?

Lori

[durron597]

Posted as a reply to the main thread not to get mixed up with the rest of everyone's stuff. This reply won't be useful to anyone who doesn't have the had histories! Sorry! Anyway, if I don't mention a hand, it's because I like your line.

955596078 - I bet this flop; since it's limped to you, you likely have the
best hand unless you are against two pair or a set. However when you give
the free card, and the flush card comes, I wouldn't even bet the turn; so
likely against this opponent the hand ends up the same way.
955658446 - There are good arguments for both limping and folding this hand;
I hate raising though. If you are called you have to play crap hand out of
position... nearly 2/3 of the time you will have to check fold the flop. If
you limp you can play it for nut flush value, and you can also try to win
a small pot if you hit (but lay it down if it becomes a big pot). Also folding
is not a bad option. But this hand has been discussed at length already,
this is just my take on it.
955672866 - This is tough IMO. Definitely push/fold situation, but your stack
says push and your position says fold (to me). I would push 66+ here.
955530976 - Why not raise preflop? Winning thirty chips is better than losing
thirty chips; most likely the BB will fold.
955619405 - I would probably move in here.
955636987 - I would definitely move in here.
955653953 - I would fold this, you don't have odds to call on the range of
hands: Any ace, Any decent King, any PP
955673239 - I would probably move in here.

[La Brujita]

I can look at one tomorrow if you want.

[KJ o]

[ QUOTE ]
It would be wrong to play the AA hand any differently. I think you should be thrilled that 8 T or 79 or whatever it was called you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Why would you want T8 to call your all-in with a T98 flop? You are more than a 2:1 dog here.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Lori,

Actually, I can see why Daliman wanted people to review the entire file. He's looking for trends in his play, not limited to the actual tactics of this or that particular hand, and having reviewed the entire file, I can say with confidence that any single SNG review probably won't help much. It's only in reviewing a half dozen or more that any useful trends emerge.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hi imcastleman,

If you haven't reviewed the file, how are you informed enough to critique anyone's evaluation of it?

Cris

[citanul]

I think he meant preflop.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
If you haven't reviewed the file, how are you informed enough to critique anyone's evaluation of it?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think good honest constructive criticism is much more useful than 'keep doing what you are doing' in this case anyways if not all.

Regards Mack

[CrisBrown]

Hi citanul,

If that's indeed what he meant, then he has no argument. I said in my original post about this hand that Daliman was "obviously correct" to raise the AA preflop. The issue is whether pushing with AA vs. two players on an 8-9-T flop is equally correct. I've explained why I felt this was a mistake of the "desperation" variety that I saw in several of Daliman's SNGs.

We all are subject to making these sorts of mistakes in the midst of a bad run. We get a bit impatient and push with hands that we have good reason to suspect are already behind. It's a subtle kind of tilt that is very difficult to spot in a single SNG, but over a series the pattern emerges quite clearly. My impressions here are also based on Daliman's table talk, which also evidences the kind of impatience and desperation that I've commented on in the actual play.

I've talked with Daliman privately, to ensure him that I'm not patronizing or belittling him in the least. I respect him and his play. I know what it's like to be in this kind of run, and I've made -- and no doubt will make again -- these same kinds of mistakes. It's human.

The worst of it is that, when you're in the middle of this situation, it's difficult to see what you're doing wrong. You can find good reasons for each individual play, but the overall pattern of impatience and desperation is difficult to spot from the inside-looking-around. I think that's why Daliman asked for people to review his play over a series of SNGs, and provide an objective critique. And I have to say that reviewing Daliman's SNGs has helped me to see the same kinds of mistakes I'm prone to make when I get in one of those sour runs.

Tight-aggressive is certainly the most reliable winning approach in SNGs, or any almost any kind of poker. But I think there's a line between tight-aggressive and what I'll call "tight-NUCLEAR," where almost every pot that is played is played all-in. In the midst of a losing streak, it can be very easy to slip from good, tight-aggressive play into dangerous, desperate, tight-NUCLEAR play. At one point in this series, Daliman said (at the table) "let's see this hand lose," and I've had that same feeling and said the same thing when I'm in a bad run ... usually right before I shoved all the chips in when there might have been a better way to play it.

Cris

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
For example, you raise AA pre-flop, and get one caller. The flop is 8-9-T. You're out of position, and you push ahead of him. He calls you with T8 and wins it with two pair. The pre-flop raise is fine (obviously). But think about that flop play. Who is going to call that push with anything that won't beat an overpair? Which means you'll either: (a) win what's in the pot; or, (b) go bust if you are called. That's what I mean by "waiting for a hand to go broke on" syndrome.

[/ QUOTE ]



[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A.
UTG raises to t60, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t60, Hero raises to t250, Button calls t250, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP3 calls t190.

Flop: (t855) 9, T, 8 (3 players)
MP3 bets t30, Hero raises to t715 (All-In), Button folds, MP3 calls t685.

Turn: (t2285) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2285) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2285

Results in white below:
MP3 has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has Ac As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP3 wins t2285.


[/ QUOTE ]


Cris, you've said that Daliman's flop play of AA was incorrect here. I'm curious to see how you would have played it. Thanks.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Pete,

The opponent's bet looks like a bet begging for a call. He is betting first, into a three-way pot, and into a pre-flop raiser. There is also a player left to act behind me. If I call this bet, and the player behind me raises, and then the initial bettor reraises ... where am I? I have to muck my hand. This is a flop that is VERY likely to have hit the kinds of hands that would call a pre-flop raiser for implied odds, and in fact there are very few hands against which I am still a significant favorite.

I'd muck and wait for a better opportunity to get my chips in.

Cris

[La Brujita]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Pete,

The opponent's bet looks like a bet begging for a call. He is betting first, into a three-way pot, and into a pre-flop raiser. There is also a player left to act behind me. If I call this bet, and the player behind me raises, and then the initial bettor reraises ... where am I? I have to muck my hand. This is a flop that is VERY likely to have hit the kinds of hands that would call a pre-flop raiser for implied odds, and in fact there are very few hands against which I am still a significant favorite.

I'd muck and wait for a better opportunity to get my chips in.

Cris



[/ QUOTE ]

You muck to a minimum bet of 30 into a pot of 855 with AA? Please tell me this is not serious advice.

If there is a raise and a reraise you can muck no? Its one thing to have a real bet in front of you and be worrying about a reraise and being trapped but you are basically seeing this for free. That being said, as I said previously a raise is better than a call.

At this point in a hand you don't worry about being a significant favorite, you worry about whether the range of hands the opponents might have justifies a call raise or fold no? I mean the hero has less than the pot in his chip stack so its not like the money is super deep.

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd muck and wait for a better opportunity to get my chips in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding for 30 with 885 in the pot holding AA? Wow. Do you dislike Daliman for some reason?

[PrayingMantis]

Cris, I respect you, but this is crazy advice. If you fold AA on this flop, to a min bet that represents less than 5% of the pot, you are a) very easy to manipulate, b) losing money.

BTW, Cris, I don't remember you ever mentioning playing at party. I know you've been playing mainly Stars, about a year ago. It is possible that some of your advice is more relevant to Stars' structure, because, as you know, Party is a whole different game. This could explain why some of the posters here really disagree with your general approach to Daliman's play. (Although I must say that folding this AA to a min bet on this flop is a crazy move also on Stars).

[CrisBrown]

Hiya P.M.,

Yes, you're right. I'd probably call this min bet, but fold to a raise/reraise. My reasoning is simple. When I have a big pair (AA or KK), I want to get as much pre-flop money in the pot as I can ... and as little post-flop money as possible unless I improve. I know I'm ahead pre-flop. I don't know that I'm ahead post-flop, and on this flop in particular, it's very unlikely that I'm a big favorite to take the pot.

At this point, AA becomes a reverse implied odds hand. If you get married to it -- on this flop -- it's likely to cost you a lot of money. E.g.: how do you play this if an Ace falls on the turn? You have a set, yes, but it STILL might well be beaten already. In short, you have a hand that is very unlikely to improve enough to beat the hands that will give it heavy action.

Yes, in part my advice is based on playing two-table SNGs at Stars, where the stacks are a bit deeper, especially in the middle game if you've gained any ground at all, and there is more maneuvering room. (Actually, I prefer and primarily play cash games for this very reason.) But even on UB (which I think is where Daliman is playing), pushing with AA on this flop is, I think, a serious mistake, born of impatience and desperation that are evident throughout the series of SNGs that I reviewed.

That's simply my opinion. Daliman solicited opinions, and I offered mine. If y'all want to review his SNGs and offer different opinions, that's fine. But if you haven't, then it seems to me that you're really arguing a tiny sliver of a larger picture that you haven't seen.

Cris

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Hiya P.M.,

Yes, you're right. I'd probably call this min bet, but fold to a raise/reraise. My reasoning is simple. When I have a big pair (AA or KK), I want to get as much pre-flop money in the pot as I can ... and as little post-flop money as possible unless I improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's flat crazy, Cris. In a PP SnG, except at the very earliest stages if you hardly got anything into the pot preflop, the correct flop move for AA is all-in the vast majority of the time. You'll get paid off by so many underpairs and draws that living in fear of a scary board is terrible.

If you're facing 4- or 5-way action on a scary board, and the pot is still smallish, well, then maybe not, but in that case you screwed up preflop.

eastbay

[durron597]

Well, a long car ride to Boston where I wasn't driving gave me plenty of time to look over the SnGs. To anyone who also has the file, please look at the hands that I have commented on (in this post and the previous one) if you disagree with any of my comments so far. Daliman in particular, if you disagree with me please say so!

Also I will post some of my thoughts on general trends after I am done.

955491231 - I would definitely call here; it's only 30 chips and you are
the button and you have a suited ace.
955509939 - Interesting to see you fold ATo in MP; maybe I should do that
more often. Borderline fold IMO.
955567999 - Bet the river?
955620332 - I would stop-and-go this.
955425818 - I might limp but folding is fine.
955531598 - I would probably push, player dependant but in this case I would.
955356073 - I would probably limp here.
955406512 - I would raise more preflop, and bet more on the flop. The idiot
may only call the flop if you bet more on it, and may fold when you push the
turn.
955360277 - I would limp this.
955368333 - Correct me if I'm wrong you have odds to call, because if he has
an overpair you can probably get him to pay off your stack with the implied
odds for hitting a set, and if he has overcards you should call anyway,
right? Maybe calling that is a leak in my game... though I do fold that a lot
too.
955372175 - I would limp, fold to a raise.
955375842 - I would raise more preflop (to about 300). If the T8 still calls
I go broke anyway.
955328803 - I would probably call here but folding is fine.
955433542 - I would bet this flop.
955446315 - I push this flop, with your stack you have to take a chance.
955466029 - I would fold.
952601518 - If you're going to call, why not check-raise allin? I think that
both folding and check-raising allin are better than calling.
952620562 - I would make a small bet on this flop.
952686176 - You are too EP to make this push, too many players left, IMO.
952580574 - Do you really think you have the best hand often enough to make
this call? I suppose with the straight on board you are.
952646025 - Ideal blind stealing hand
952678409 - Raise more preflop. I like allin.
952635226 - I would play this hand - probably raise to 150. If the BB puts
you allin you have no problem calling. This advice is not the same for 55-
952698183 - I would move in. There's a shortstack, abuse it!

[Daliman]

Ok, I've got these plugged into my pokertracker, so I can access by hand # much eaiser now. I'll try to comment on my thinking line by line. I'll try not to look at this results/based if i HAD played the hand in a marginal situation.

[ QUOTE ]
955491231 - I would definitely call here; it's only 30 chips and you are
the button and you have a suited ace.


[/ QUOTE ]

I simply do NOT play Axs first two rounds. I get trapped o nthe ace too often, and a UTG raise anyways could DEFINITELY be big ace or worse. My playing standards first two rounds for aces suited from this position is AJs.

[ QUOTE ]
955509939 - Interesting to see you fold ATo in MP; maybe I should do that
more often. Borderline fold IMO.


[/ QUOTE ]
Same thing. Too many people play trash hands early to raise properly here and chase out crap, which DID happen to win this hand(54s)
[ QUOTE ]
955567999 - Bet the river?



[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't bet the river because I saw no value in it&gt; King high in position on a 2-pair board is not the type of hand you value bet, IMHO, and I can't imagine he's foding his low boat under ANY circumstances.
[ QUOTE ]
955620332 - I would stop-and-go this.


[/ QUOTE ]
It's a thought. In many similar instances to this, I get called down by ace high, however, and anyone WITH that jack can call easily and have me drawing effectively dead.
[ QUOTE ]
955425818 - I might limp but folding is fine.


[/ QUOTE ]
No chance for my play style. KQo in EP is a chip bleeder anywhere, ESPECIALLY first two levels. I play VERY tight first two levels, folding even KQs in LP.
[ QUOTE ]
955531598 - I would probably push, player dependant but in this case I would.


[/ QUOTE ]
This one is an interesting hand, and I gave it more than cursory thought at the time. Essentially, for those without the HH's, UTG goes allin 7 handed for 555 chips, blinds are 50-100. All fold to me at the button with 2120 chips, 2nd hi total. I figure he could just have any ace or 20 EASILY, but I also figure I can easily be beat half the time or more here, and losing this pot would put me at average stack again. I think too many people look at hands like ATo late as a monster, but very often, even if you have the best hand, you are only a 56-44 favorite, but when you are a dog,( as you often will be CALLING raises), you are usually 30/70 or 22/78. Now, first in, no problem, I play this hand. My gap concept seems to run wuite a bit higher than most, and I am loath to put chips in the pot when I can only win by having the best hand. I would MUCH rather fold A8 4 handed with 1500 left in the big blind if UTG raises with blinds at 200-400 than call it. Next hand after that, if first in, I feel pushing ANY face suited, suited connector or better is the superior play, allowing the 2 way possibility of winning.
[ QUOTE ]
955356073 - I would probably limp here.


[/ QUOTE ]
Another case of me playing very tight first 2 levels. Kjo MP lvl 2 is EASY muck for me.
[ QUOTE ]
955406512 - I would raise more preflop, and bet more on the flop. The idiot
may only call the flop if you bet more on it, and may fold when you push the
turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ah the 77 vs AK hand, where I make a great read, and pay for it. I miniraise at times preflop just to changeup, and have no problem with dissention to this, i have some myself. I WOULD have bet more on flop into a bigger pot, possibly getting the results you envisioned, but i also think the chance of him pushing PF if i raise to ~150 go up exponentially,(not REALLY a bad thing, given the result.)

finish more later...